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Victor Davis Hanson is a genuine scholar of classical antiquity whose work on ancient Greece and Rome deserves its reputation. What he is doing here is not scholarship. It is cheerleading dressed in the vocabulary of strategic analysis and the documented evidence dismantles it category by category.
“Get rid of the regime and all good things happen.”
The NIC report from 18 American intelligence agencies assessed that regime change was unachievable even with large scale assault before the first bomb fell. That report was completed, briefed to the administration and ignored. Ten days later the classified Congressional briefing confirmed Iran still has 50 percent of its ballistic missile programme intact. The NYT confirmed using a US military officer as source that Iran is fighting more effectively than anticipated and more American casualties are expected. The regime has not been gotten rid of. It has hardened. And the succession produced a Supreme Leader more aligned with IRGC hardliners than his father was.
Hanson is describing the outcome of a strategy as though it has been achieved. It has not been achieved. He is celebrating a result that the people executing the strategy are privately telling Congress they have not produced.
“No Iran means no money for proxies.”
Iran still exists. Hezbollah still exists. The Houthis fired missiles throughout this conflict. Hamas’s political leadership is in Doha. The proxy network does not require a functioning Iranian oil economy to continue operating in the near term. It requires ideology, existing weapons stockpiles and pre-established logistics networks. All three remain intact.
“China loses its proxy. Russia already lost Syria.”
China is not losing anything in this scenario. China buys 1.6 million barrels of Iranian oil per day. It controls 98 percent of gallium supply, 80 percent of tungsten supply and 60 percent of germanium supply required to restock the American precision munitions being expended in this conflict. America cannot rearm without Chinese minerals. China is watching America exhaust its arsenal, deplete its stockpiles and consume its credibility while Beijing pays discounted prices for Iranian oil and waits. The Kharg Island seizure being considered would cut off 1.6 million barrels per day flowing to China. The administration knows what that triggers. That is why former Trump officials are urging caution about it.
Russia provided Iran real-time intelligence on American warship and aircraft locations throughout this conflict. WaPo confirmed it as “fairly extensive and systematic.” Russia is not losing its relationship with Iran. It is deepening it under bombardment while publicly calling for ceasefires and collecting intelligence dividends.
“The pipeline of drones and missiles from North Korea and Russia is severed.”
No evidence supports this claim. The pipeline was not severed by the strikes. Iran’s domestic production capacity of 100 plus missiles per month was not destroyed. The Shahed drone production facilities that were targeted had dispersed production across multiple sites. Patricia Marins documented that Iran’s drone belt has not been fully deployed. Severing a supply pipeline requires destroying production capacity, storage, logistics and the relationships that sustain them simultaneously and permanently. None of that has been confirmed.
“This isn’t haphazard. Trump is methodically dismantling the entire axis.”
Trump told Tucker Carlson he had no choice but to join a war Israel was going to launch anyway. Rubio confirmed this publicly. The Secretary of State acknowledged the war began because a foreign government’s operational timeline drove the decision. Methodical strategic architecture and “I had no choice” are not compatible descriptions of the same decision.
@DWalpiri Give a good reason why your country chose to dishonour the agreement in the first place. Then the rest of the world especially SEA will judge whether you are trustworthy. Bear in mind in a multipolar world , geography matters.
Lest we forget, the young Anis Syafiqah, who was an undergraduate at University of Malaya, took to the streets, calling the arrest of Malaysian Official 1 (MO1) — or the prime minister.
She was suspended by the university for one semester. #1MDB
https://t.co/v1eMVuynRA