JC

bruh

[Gavin Newsom @GavinNewsom]

More dangerous nonsense from a President losing his grip on reality.

Trump is now demanding that California election officials VIOLATE federal law.

Apparently, the rule of law only matters when it's convenient for MAGA's dear leader.

California's elections are NOT Donald Trump's to control. We will ensure EVERY California voter can participate in a free and fair election.

[Colin McCarthy @US_Stormwatch]

The world’s leading seasonal forecast models have never shown California this wet, not even in 1997–98.

Europe’s Copernicus climate service (C3S) just released its October outlook, combining 10 seasonal forecast models from 9 weather agencies. The C3S average calls for 156% of normal precipitation statewide this Dec–Feb, the wettest California winter forecast these models have produced, wetter even than their reruns of the 1997–98 super El Niño.

Out of 454 total model members, only 8% show a drier-than-average Dec–Feb statewide, while about 13% are explicitly forecasting California’s wettest winter on record. A record-wet winter is now more likely than a dry one.

This far out, forecasts are about odds, not certainties. But 9 in 10 runs come in at or above normal, and even the driest 10% of runs average 88% of normal. The odds have never leaned this heavily toward an exceptionally wet winter, though a below-normal winter is still possible, but extremely unlikely.

[Bernie Sanders @BernieSanders]

I can’t believe we have to say this, but the annihilation of two major American cities — more than 5 million people — is not a “small price to pay” for Trump's illegal war.

Neither are the 19 American troops and 3,000+ Iranians who lost their lives.

Our president is unhinged.

[Daniel Swain @Weather_West]

Just did some number crunching using latest (Oct 1) ECMWF seasonal data, and I must say that I've never seen such high predictive confidence in a very wet California winter. This is a truly extraordinary forecast amid a record-strength El Niño event. [Thread: please read to end.]

[Colin McCarthy @US_Stormwatch]

Wanted to share my thoughts on El Niño this winter in California.

This year's winter forecast for the state is the most extreme we've seen this far out, probably in modern history.

The C3S model blends 9 of the world's top seasonal models into one, with over 450 member models. It's showing the highest forecast confidence we've ever seen for a wetter-than-normal winter in California: a nearly 100% chance of an above-normal winter and a well-over-70% chance of a top-third wet winter. To see this from a model this large is, in a word that's used too often, unprecedented.

Many of you remember the same hype around the last Super El Niño in 2015-16. That year didn't deliver, and it didn't pull California out of its worst drought in state history. But here's where it gets interesting. The ECMWF SEAS5 model, the gold standard of seasonal models, did not predict a blockbuster wet winter for 2015-16 despite the super El Niño. In reforecasts for 1982-83 and 1997-98, two other super El Niño years, it did predict very wet winters. Those years look much more like this one, because they were strong and east-based.

For this winter, SEAS5's wettest 20% of members show 250 to 300% of normal precipitation from the Bay Area to SoCal, and a mean of 150 to 200% of normal statewide. Several members show coastal California having its wettest winter on record, with the highest odds from the Bay Area down to SoCal.

The guaranteed impact from El Niño this winter on the state is major coastal flooding and erosion. San Francisco is expected to see about 30 king tide days this year, and it would take just a moderate storm at peak king tide, to break the high water mark record. Much of the Bay Area's infrastructure and homes sit only a few feet above sea level, so a new record could have severe impacts.

King tides are expected Nov 24 to 26, Dec 22 to 25 and Jan 20 to 23, windows when large winter storms are quite possible. El Niño will add 12 to 15 inches to sea level on top of long-term sea level rise.

In a worst-case scenario, a strong storm landing on a king tide, with the moon's gravitational pull nearing a 19-year high, could push water 3 to 5 feet above high tide. That could cause major flooding along Highway 101, SFO, the Embarcadero, Highway 80 and many bayside and coastal communities.

We've already seen El Niño's impacts in SoCal: severe coastal damage from elevated sea levels, combined with dangerous surf from Hurricane Marie, part of an El Niño-fueled record burst of hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific.

Stay tuned.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

I’d agree here. We’ve seen a lot of deviant weather/ climate behavior over the past few years. But my honest assessment is: this El Niño is by far the most extreme outlier. If we are being honest, a year ago, could any climate/ weather expert legitimately say that they could conceive of an El Niño so far outside the distribution? I’m genuinely curious? Anyone? Bueller??Because I’ve become accustomed to now “expect the unexpected”. But for this I apparently need to adjust my expectations wayyyyy upward.

[Colin McCarthy @US_Stormwatch]

Over 30 million Californians are under heat warnings or advisories, including an exceptionally long 6-day Extreme Heat Warning for all of Southern California.

LA could hit 99°F+ for 6 straight days, SD 90°F+ for a week and SF 90°F+ Saturday.

Indian Summer has arrived.

[Colin McCarthy @US_Stormwatch]

Hurricane Polo is one of the most incredible tropical cyclones in modern history:

- Went from a tropical storm to Category 5 in ~21 hours
- Reached Category 5 intensity three separate times
- Second-most intense eastern Pacific hurricane on record (892 mb)
- Forecast to make the first documented major-hurricane landfall on the west coast of Baja California tonight
- Spent more than 60 hours at Category 5 intensity, an all-time record for the Northeast Pacific
- Remnant moisture will bring widespread heavy rain and flooding to the Southwest and central United States
- Fastest storm on record in the eastern Pacific to intensify from a tropical depression to a Category 5 hurricane

[JerryRigEverything @ZacksJerryRig]

NOW PUT THE PEOPLE WHO DID THE ILLEGAL THING IN JAIL. This is not difficult.

[Bernie Sanders @BernieSanders]

Trump has now banned CNN, MS NOW and POLITICO from entering the White House grounds. 

That’s not all. He is threatening that more news organizations who criticize him, including the New York Times and Washington Post, will be next. 

Why? Because when demagogues like Trump are in trouble they want to control the flow of information and silence media that might hold them accountable.

We will not allow Trump to undermine the First Amendment, the Constitution and our democracy.

We will not accept authoritarianism.

Fight back.

[Colin McCarthy @US_Stormwatch]

The Colorado River crisis will be a defining moment in US history. The river supplies 40 million people; Mead and Powell, two of the nation’s largest reservoirs, are at record lows.

Filling them near full would take ~8 consecutive very wet winters, a statistical impossibility.

[Bernie Sanders @BernieSanders]

We just saw the hottest summer in US recorded history.

August tied for the hottest global month in recorded history.

Trump's response is more handouts for Big Oil.

We cannot allow him to trade our future for the short-term profits of his Big Oil billionaire friends.

[Philip DeFranco 👊🏻 @PhillyD]

I stand by this even more following Ed Sheeran's weak bs post today.

10 years ago I was the centrist fence-sitting final boss.

I get it Ed.

I thought it made me enlightened, but looking back it was just cowardice. Too many things are too fucked rn to stay silent or neutral.

[Gavin Newsom @GavinNewsom]

After making you sicker and poorer with his war, Donald Trump now wants to buy your vote with $5,000 in taxpayer-funded blood money.

The most corrupt man ever to occupy the Oval Office.

[Colin McCarthy @US_Stormwatch]

The hottest summer in American history is no longer 1936; it is now officially 2026.

[Colin McCarthy @US_Stormwatch]

I’ve never seen this before. Some weather models are forecasting dew points in the upper 70s in LA County on Wednesday, with heat indices peaking near 110°F.

Truly miserable humidity.

If dew points reach that level in DTLA, it would shatter the previous dew point record.

[Colin McCarthy @US_Stormwatch]

A staggering marine heatwave is ongoing off Baja California, where waters are up to 14°F (8°C) above normal.

NOAA is categorizing it as a severe to locally extreme marine heatwave. These very warm waters extending up to SoCal are helping drive the region’s record-humid summer.

[mason @onehandpolitics]

100 watergates a week under this admin

[Gavin Newsom @GavinNewsom]

The United States in 2026:

- Spend your week's wages to buy groceries.
- Get salmonella poisoning from the food you bought.
- Go to the doctor without insurance.
- In debt for the rest of your life.

But, you know, MAHA.

[NWS San Diego @NWSSanDiego]

Don't let your guard down, SoCal! Heat Advisories and Warnings are still in place through Friday as many will experience the hottest temperatures of the year. There is light at the end of the tunnel: a cooling trend is in store this weekend into next week! Stay cool out there!