Jeff Berardelli

WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

🥶 COLD BLAST NEXT WEEKEND
Watch as a very amplified pattern driven by record warm blocking in Canada (like a summer heat dome) shoves and “displaces” cold air southward next weekend. That means 30s as far south as Northern #Florida and the potential for a Nor’easter! #Snow will fly for some! This Warm Canadian blocking pattern will become a hallmark of this upcoming winter, driven by the strongest #ElNino on record. #noreaster (Map animation via @burgwx PolarWx)

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@MichaelEMann @propublica I was at the Visualizing Climate conference in Italy yesterday and Pro Publica was giving a talk.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@Tom0y It’s true, but it really helps emphasize how different our climate is today, from our climate just a couple/ few decades ago.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

One of my favorite ways of putting climate change into perspective is using standard deviations. It’s too bad most folks don’t relate to it. Because, for people who understand this way of expressing likelihood, 7.22 sigma is otherworldly

[Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson]

Now at 7.22σ.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@eresc79 Yes - and I agree - but I’ve noticed the hardcore stats folks don’t love it.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@25_cycle I see it both ways.
The baseline is only one generation old.. 1981-2010.
For me the sigma just emphasizes how different our climate is today. But against the current baseline I bet it would still be an eye popping number.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@eresc79 I’ve tried to do that… but once you get past 4 sigma it seems like such a crazy number… the extreme right tail… the numbers get crazy, fast

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

“Because burning fuels to generate power, drive vehicles and heat buildings wastes much of those fuels’ energy as heat, about two-thirds of the primary energy that goes into the global system is lost before it does anything useful.”

[Dr Paul Dorfman @dorfman_p]

Replacing fossil fuels may not be nearly as daunting a challenge for governments as that persistent 80%-plus share of primary #energy suggests. Because burning fuels to generate power, drive vehicles and heat buildings wastes much of those fuels’ energy as heat, about two-thirds of the primary energy that goes into the global system is lost before it does anything useful. A growing number of energy analysts point out that the energy transition does not require all that waste energy to be replaced, joule for joule, with renewable energy. Believing otherwise is what Canadian chemical engineer Paul Martin has called the “primary energy fallacy”. Or as the Oxford professor Jan Rosenow says “we don’t need to replace waste”. Rosenow is the lead author of a forthcoming study that attempts to quantify the scale of the primary energy fallacy by modelling a highly electrified global economy running on renewable power. It suggests we could get exactly the same amount of useful energy we have today with about half as much primary energy.
#climate
https://t.co/6W79lurSBP

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@kerrand @BTudbubble He’s kidding

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

Carbon capture will save us…
🤪

[Michael Thomas @curious_founder]

Tuesday's election results will have sweeping impacts on America's data center boom.

Our team at Cleanview analyzed the data and found that newly elected governors could pause 41% of America’s planned data centers.

Here are some more takeaways from last night's results:

On Tuesday, voters elected governors and passed local measures that will change the course of the AI infrastructure boom. But much of the early coverage has been misleading or wrong.

Tuesday’s results don’t signal the end of the data center boom. They will, however, likely bring a pause in some of the largest markets and new regulations across the country—even in traditionally laissez-faire states like Texas.

159 GW of planned data centers are in states where the new governor backs a pause. That's 41% of the country's planned data center pipeline.

Another 69.2 GW (18%) is in states where the winner wants to change tax breaks or other rules but hasn’t backed a pause.

This week’s elections will also impact the power projects that data centers depend on, likely bringing more clean energy in some states and fewer on-site gas plants in others.

On-site gas plants will likely face new rules and delays. To build an on-site gas plant, a developer needs an air permit. That approval often goes through offices controlled by the executive branch, which means new Democratic governors could delay or block those permits.

Developers may need to buy more clean energy. A number of candidates campaigned on a promise to make data centers buy more clean energy.

David Crowley in Wisconsin called for 100% renewable energy as a condition for communities that accept a project. Haaland’s plan calls for self-built renewables. Michigan Democrats have proposed a bill requiring 90% clean procurement.

Another takeaway from last night: Local elections went overwhelmingly against data centers.

Data centers were directly on the ballot in 41 local elections across the country. Some ballot initiatives proposed outright bans, while others proposed temporary pauses. All of the races that have been called went against data centers.

Many questions remain about how many newly elected officials will follow through with their pauses, how long they'll last, which projects will be affected, and what new guardrails would look like.

We're planning to continue to cover this over the coming months. If you're interested in reading our analysis subscribe to the Cleanview newsletter or follow along here.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

This is the 1 + 2 region, but what..?

[Juan Bordera🌍🇵🇸 @JuanBordera]

Menuda locura.

Tiene toda la pinta de que vamos a vivir un segundo pico en este Súper El Niño.

Es algo que no suele ocurrir. Que en vez de venir un El Niño, vengan ‘mellizos’.

Pero nos estamos acostumbrando a vivir eventos que no ocurrían.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@TheDisproof @mikescoates Thank you. I’ll only be in Italy this time around.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

Doing recon… see if we can infuse the GFS with some of this…

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@pyreweather Yes

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@CoolMaster312 @StephenLeahy To be clear: these 1-1000 year numbers come directly from a NOAA chart … it lists locations and what qualifies for 1-50, 1-100 etc…

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

‼�� 1000 Year Rain Event Exceeded by almost 2X in Palm Beach Florida!
For at least the 3rd time in 3 days the US has had a 1000 year rainfall event, based on our historical climate. 17 inches in 6 hours in Palm Beach Gardens. Beats the criteria of 9” by 1.8X! Staggering. Unfortunately this storm may have very well been related to the jet accident.
I saw this rain intensity once before in Palm Beach County more than a decade ago when Delray/ Boynton had 24” in about 6 hours. Closed I-95.
A 1000 year event means the historic statistical chance is 1-in-1000 each year or .1% - it does not mean it happens only one per 1000 years and now-a-days because of our warmer climate and this year because of Super El Niño it’s a lot more possible because there’s now more moisture in the atmosphere. With #ElNino expect the unexpected!!

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@mikescoates That’d be great!!

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@mikescoates No it’s Italy

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

‼️ Wettest Winter on Record?!?
After our 3 Day Deluge you can understand why the US CFS model says the wettest winter on the books is possible for much of #Florida. And this does not include much of the rain Florida just received.
Super El Nino’s impacts arrived this weekend. But this is just the beginning of a very wet November through March stretch due to the strongest #elnino ever measured. The numbers are not meant to be exact, it’s just general overview. They won’t be right. They are just meant to show you how ordinary or out of the ordinary winter rain will be. And the result: unusually wet!
If you live in FL figure on a storm/ front per week on average. Sometimes more, sometimes less. It will get more active starting in December. The average of the Super Ensemble models (UK, Japan, Germany, Euro, Italy, etc…) say FL will see about a foot above normal rainfall, with some models projecting Florida will double its normal rain. It’s too early to know which part/s of Florida are favored.
The green contour on the map are rainfall anomalies, ranging from +10” to +20” in dark green.

[David Shuster @DavidShuster]

Montana voters approved a ballot measure to ban corporations, nonprofits and labor unions from doing business in the state if they made political contributions. State's rights v. Citizens United. Will be fun to see SCOTUS deal with that one. Bravo Montana!!!