The Strat

Derivatives trader. ex-HSBC · BNP Paribas · 12yrs in Global Markets
Turning retail traders into market wizards 📈
Futures · Options · Macro 🔗

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$FCEL

Sold ITM puts for Oct expiry. Massive credit upfront.

$6500 for 10 contracts. 💵

Cost basis: $12.5 per share.

Expecting this to run as the AI energy story gains traction into Q3.

The bottleneck for AI isn't compute. It's energy. $FCEL positions itself alongside $BE to solve the power constraint.

May not match $BE's growth, but $FCEL has room to capture a larger slice by Q4 2026.

Price target: north of $30 by Q4 2026.

Only real risk: global sell-off if the Iran situation escalates with no truce in sight.

Otherwise, solid opportunity for long exposure in a high-reward small cap.

We're holding long-term. Plan to keep rolling profits by selling ITM puts as the stock climbs and maximize the premium harvested per delta.

Not financial advice.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$FCEL

Everyone's fixating on the Q2 loss. Missing the real story.

FuelCell just positioned itself at the center of AI's energy bottleneck.

The numbers look ugly on the surface:
- Net loss widened to $77.6M (vs $37.7M prior)
- Revenue missed by 12% at $35.6M
- Backlog down 9.9% to $1.14B
- Loss per share: $1.45 vs $0.52 expected

Groton project writedown hit hard; equipment replacement and repairs on older units.

So why did the stock rally 1.7% and bounce clean off 50DMA support?

Wall Street's looking at what matters:

Sales pipeline surged 267% sequentially to 4 GW. Nearly 80% of that pipeline is AI and data center demand.

The company makes 12.5-MW power blocks that deploy on-site at data centers; developers bypass the grid entirely. That's the solution to AI's power crunch.

Capex coming: expanding Torrington plant capacity from 350 MW to 500 MW for $200M–$275M.

ExxonMobil partnership extended through Dec 2026. First two carbon capture modules shipped to the Netherlands this week.

CEO Jason Few called it "disciplined operational execution" despite the red ink. Translation: the infrastructure play is accelerating while near-term earnings lag.

Our position:

As the post-earnings-announcement-drift (PEAD) starts manifesting, we sold cash-secured puts expiring Friday to capture elevated IV and small-cap volatility. This makes a good premium opportunity.

Planning to add long exposure via call LEAPS once IV normalizes.

$FCEL could be the next $BE if this pipeline converts.

Not financial advice

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

If the Iran 🇮🇷 deal is signed tomorrow,

I’ll lock in ~$10–$16k in profit from options premiums received for selling high-IV contracts on growth names.

Will publish the full trading brief soon.

Trade alerts hit Slack the moment we open a position in our account.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

@RBiancoUS Good. But the options market is illiquid relatively comapred to futures or stocks.

Getting right fills is key.

Try perhaps on $SPX or /ES.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

Traders, after years of grinding, finally hit consistency:

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

@TheRealWolfff Thank you, hope to get out in profit by end of July.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

@NexusCoOfficial Burry would be happy.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$PLTR

Price is at a critical zone.

- Bounced off key MA support on the monthly
- 61.8 fib needs to hold
- False breakout on the weekly - back under the trendline
- VIMP: close above the 200DMA, or the upside means nothing

Burry has been bearish since last quarter.

A lot of headwinds, but it should grab attention once it closes above the key levels.

Are you playing this, or staying cash? 👇

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$PLTR

President Trump owns the stock. Calls it a great company. Says there's more ahead.

That's the signal.

Could it run as $DELL or $INTC did?

Technicals:

- trendline breakout on the daily
- inverse head and shoulders forming
- bounce off 21 MA on the monthly

Charts point to an upside move brewing.

We're looking to add long exposure on this defense data giant.

Not financial advice

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$PLTR

Price is at a critical zone.

- Bounced off key MA support on the monthly
- 61.8 fib needs to hold
- False breakout on the weekly - back under the trendline
- VIMP: close above the 200DMA, or the upside means nothing

Burry has been bearish since last quarter.

A lot of headwinds, but it should grab attention once it closes above the key levels.

Are you playing this, or staying cash? 👇

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

@SamBrick529810 Interesting. I took alternative exposure via shorting options instead for a juicy premium.

How’s that ETF working for you? Are you in it long term? Shouldn’t be good for long term as the price dilutes over time eh?

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$ASTS dipped today. Rolled my short puts up and out.

New cost basis: $74 (2 contracts)
Net credit collected: $10,186 💵

Waiting for the Q3 rebound. Looking at a potential $10K profit if it plays out.

Not financial advice.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

Next rebound in $ASTS will be quick & beautiful! 🚀

[Ehrmantraut Capital @EhrmantrautCap_]

Over 10% discount on $ASTS because of the SpaceX IPO, which fundamentally changes nothing for AST SpaceMobile.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$SPCX IPO drops June 12.

$1.75 trillion valuation. Largest IPO in history.

The red flags are stacking up.

Musk owns ~13% of Tesla (up to ~20% incl. options) and ~49% of SpaceX, while controlling ~84% of SpaceX votes post-IPO.

SpaceX now drives more of his net worth than Tesla.

In any stock-for-stock deal, the exchange ratio is everything, and the person setting it gains ~3.8x more from a $1 SpaceX markup than a $1 Tesla markup.

The pattern is ugly: SolarCity got a premium bailout; Tesla disclosed a $2B xAI investment after shareholders had rejected it; SpaceX absorbed xAI weeks later; then Musk admitted xAI "was not built right."

Three times out of three, the more-Musk-owned, weaker asset gets marked up, and public shareholders pay.

Timing favors him too: Tesla just posted a 16% delivery drop and its first annual revenue decline, while SpaceX is riding IPO euphoria. If he wants a favorable ratio, this is the window.

Valuation concerns:

Morningstar values SpaceX at $63/share, 53% below the $135 IPO price.

Even in their moonshot scenario ($154/share), they assign just a 7% probability.

At $1.75T, SpaceX trades at 94x trailing revenue and 266x EBITDA.
For context, that's 3x Nvidia's sales multiple.

SpaceX posted an $18.7B revenue in 2025, but also a $4.94B net loss after reporting profit the year before. The reversal matters.

Only Starlink is profitable. The space segment lost $619M; the AI unit burned $2.5B.

SpaceX's S-1 states: "history of net losses and may not achieve profitability in the future."

Much of the value relies on novel, untested tech, reusable Starship at scale, orbital data centers, which won't be proven until 2028 at the earliest.

Sen. Warren urged the SEC to delay the IPO, citing governance risks, dual-class structure giving Musk outsized control, and rapid Nasdaq 100 inclusion that could force $60B+ in passive flows into retail and pension accounts.

That said, the bull case is real.

Starlink hit 10.3M subscribers, growing 50% YoY with $11.4B in revenue and 39% operating margin. That's SaaS-like profitability in a hardware business.

The Anthropic-xAI compute deal: $1.25B/month through May 2029. Over $40B in locked revenue. Validates the xAI merger thesis in one contract.

Nasdaq fast-entry rules mean SpaceX enters the Nasdaq 100 within weeks. Analysts estimate $7B in forced buying on inclusion day alone;$60B+ across passive funds. That creates a structural bid.

Vertical integration moat: rocket manufacturing, satellite production, ground infrastructure, consumer services. No competitor replicates that in 5 years.

165 Falcon launches in 2025. 2,213 metric tons to orbit. Starship operational by 2027 in the bull case unlocks Mars missions, deep-space logistics, and cost curves no one else can match.

If Starlink maintains growth and xAI delivers on orbital compute, the $1.75T valuation starts to pencil. The institutional base case is $1.0–1.2T, but the bull scenario reaches $1.7–2.0T.

I subscribed for 100 shares.

The risks are clear. The governance is messy. The valuation prices in perfection.

But I want to be part of this mission. SpaceX is building the infrastructure for humanity's next frontier, whether that's global connectivity, AI in orbit, or eventual interplanetary commerce.

Not every trade is about the cleanest setup. Some are about being there when the future gets built.

Not financial advice.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

If the Iran 🇮🇷 deal is signed tomorrow,

I’ll lock in ~$10–$16k in profit from options premiums received for selling high-IV contracts on growth names.

Will publish the full trading brief soon.

Trade alerts hit Slack the moment we open a position in our account.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$ORCL earnings are out.

$194 in after-hours; well within the expected move.

Our short puts are set to expire worthless by Friday for 100% profit.

Fantastic trade! 🔥

I spend a lot of time researching markets and developing high-probability ideas.

Comment yes/no if you want to see more...👇

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

Here you go: a quick analysis of what the options market thinks about $RKLB

Source: @MenthorQpro

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$ASTS sold off today, but the options market is still constructive.

Gamma condition remains positive. The environment is still call-dominated. Net GEX sits at +7.97M.

Put support: $84
Call resistance: $100

Net GEX fell 81% day-over-day. Net DEX down 48%. Dealers have unwound speculative positioning, but have not shifted into negative gamma.

That means the destabilizing feedback loop that amplifies moves in both directions is not in play yet.

Current setup:

• Spot: $83.82
• Put Support: $84
• HVL: $87
• Call Wall: $100

If $ASTS reclaims $87 and holds, the move back toward $100 opens up. The gamma structure supports it.

Also, there's low float for borrowing for short sellers. A cover rally is possible if they start to unwind their short exposure.

GEX chart via @MenthorQpro

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

Most traders look at $IREN and see a Bitcoin miner.

They're missing the real story.

IREN secured a $3.4B AI cloud contract with NVIDIA, expanded its AI cloud platform to Europe, and grew GPU capacity to 150,000, all within a few months. This is infrastructure buildout at a pace the market hasn't fully priced.

Technically:
- Parallel channel respected on the daily
- Weekly bull-flag breakout intact
- Trend direction bullish, with a divergence between price & RSI

We're positioned via a long synthetic future (short put + long call, same strike, same expiry). Net credit on entry. Full upside exposure. If assigned shares, that's even better; it's a strong Wheel candidate with high IV and a real growth engine underneath.

Revenue forecast to grow 41% annually over the next 3 years, more than double the 15% growth forecast for the broader software industry.

Don't forget that it also has an NVDA contract, EU expansion (Nostrum acquisition), GPU fleet scaling plans, and high-growth revenue expectations.

Target: 70+ near-term. 100+ by Q4 under favorable conditions.

Not financial advice.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$NBIS waiting for another long signal.

expect a strong year-end rally.

not financial advice.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

Everyone's calling $SPCX the trade of the decade.

Maybe. But read the filing first.

A stretched price and a deliberately thin float are a recipe for a sharp first move in either direction, followed by higher-than-normal volatility. That's not an opinion. That's the structure of the deal.

What the bulls have right:
- Starlink is genuinely profitable and growing
- A small initial free float against global demand can force a sharp opening premium, and if $SPCX qualifies for large-cap indices, funds tracking those benchmarks become mechanical buyers within weeks
- SpaceX operates a constellation of ~10,000 satellites, plus xAI (the AI unit that acquired @x). The asset base is real.

What the bears have right:
- Bulls see $2.5T by 2030. Bears see fair value at less than half today's tag. That's not a rounding error. That's a completely different company.
- Existing shareholders, including Musk, are locked up for 366 days, which is longer than usual. Limits early selling, but also caps float and amplifies swings.
- First earnings call as a public company isn't until September 2026. You're flying blind on fundamentals for months.

The first move will be dominated by supply-demand technicals.

Fundamentals won't get a real read until the first quarterly report.

So far, $SPCX has hit a high of $176.50 today.

Treat today's trading as price discovery, not a verdict.

Not financial advice.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$ASTS dipped today. Rolled my short puts up and out.

New cost basis: $74 (2 contracts)
Net credit collected: $10,186 💵

Waiting for the Q3 rebound. Looking at a potential $10K profit if it plays out.

Not financial advice.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$NBIS waiting for another long signal.

expect a strong year-end rally.

not financial advice.