Strike

Decentralized prediction market on Robinhood Chain. Stake a confidence,not a yes or no, a proper scoring rule pays the better-calibrated side.

[Strike @strike_xyz]

$STRIKE is live on Robinhood Chain.

CA: 0x60e74a78eb05b7e355604ba84c1e305bb6e4b648

A decentralized prediction market: two seats, two declared confidences, a scoring rule that pays calibration.

https://t.co/H4PPccwgr3

[Strike @strike_xyz]

A seat carries two separate numbers: risk, the provisional amount in play, and finalPayout, written only at settlement.

claimPayout pays finalPayout and nothing else. It can never accidentally pay a provisional figure, and it can never pay twice.

[Strike @strike_xyz]

Most arguments online are not about whether. They are about when.

That disagreement is settleable the second someone attaches a deadline to it. Write the deadline into the event terms, take opposite seats, and the argument resolves itself instead of running for months.

[Strike @strike_xyz]

Creating a market just got easier.

The resolution rules field now gives you templates to start from, warns you before you leave it vague, and reminds you that nothing can be edited once it is on-chain.

https://t.co/TtDazVhlxK

[Strike @strike_xyz]

You are not limited to the six markets we seeded.

createEvent is permissionless. Write a headline, set the resolution terms and a deadline, finalize it, and it is a live table anyone can take a seat on.

The seeded markets are a starting point, not the whole menu.

[Strike @strike_xyz]

Seven things Strike could become. Some we will build, some we never will.

Optimistic settlement. Pools beyond one on one. Market embeds. An agent that drafts and settles.

Go read them and tell us which one you want first.

https://t.co/wxvxLEfZe1

[Strike @strike_xyz]

Ask someone how sure they are and watch them reach for a word. Probably. Likely. Pretty confident.

Words are how a take stays unfalsifiable. A number is a commitment you can be graded on later, which is exactly why people avoid writing one down.

[Strike @strike_xyz]

New on Strike: a track record page.

Your beliefs are already on-chain, and so is the outcome. The page reads both back and scores them, so calibration is computed, never self-reported.

https://t.co/Nlu54mvUhi

[Strike @strike_xyz]

Two seats is the MVP, not the ceiling.

Things we are looking at: pooled markets that hold many participants, auto-matching takers to open seats by declared belief, and scalar markets that resolve to a number instead of yes or no.

None of it is built yet.

[Strike @strike_xyz]

Every wager fixes its currency at creation. address(0) is native ETH; any standard ERC-20 works, a stablecoin or a Robinhood stock token.
Stake NVDA on an NVDA question, settle in NVDA, exact to the smallest unit. Fee-on-transfer tokens are rejected.

[Strike @strike_xyz]

Your confidence is a live dial, not a one-shot bet.
News drops, you move it. 65, then 72, then 80. It stays editable right up to the moment you lock.

After that it is frozen, and the outcome pays against the exact number you committed.

[Strike @strike_xyz]

Every event id is keccak(creator, headline). One creator, one headline, one market.

You cannot clone an existing market to muddy it, and the same question from a different creator is simply a different table. The id is derived from the inputs, not handed out.

[Strike @strike_xyz]

Changed your mind before locking?

Pull your stake back. Full refund, no penalty, and the seat reopens for someone else.

You are only committed the instant you lock. Until then nothing is holding your ETH except your own decision.

[Strike @strike_xyz]

If someone stakes a seat and then vanishes without locking, the table is not stuck.

After lockBy, the wager creator can open that abandoned seat, refunding the straggler their exact stake to their own wallet. Cleanup never touches funds it should not.

[Strike @strike_xyz]

You cannot submit a made-up outcome. A judgment is one of exactly three values: LANDED, MISSED, PUSH. Anything else reverts.

Resolution is not free-form text a resolver interprets. It is a closed choice, and only matching choices from both seats settle the table.

[Strike @strike_xyz]

Do not like the markets on offer? Write your own.

Type the question, spell out how it settles, finalize it on-chain. It goes live in the registry and someone can take the other side of you.

[Strike @strike_xyz]

Push is not only the disagreement fallback. Both seats can deliberately declare PUSH and settle a market as void, everyone refunded in full.

When a question turns out ambiguous or the event gets cancelled, you are not stuck. You both call it off.

[Strike @strike_xyz]

How much changes hands depends on how far apart your convictions are.

Two beliefs close together put almost nothing in play. A wide gap, say 90 against 20, puts much more of each stake at risk.

The size of the bet is the distance between two reads.

[Strike @strike_xyz]

When it is over, the two players call the outcome themselves. Agree, and it settles on the spot.

The sharper read collects 1.45 against 0.55, paid straight to the winner's wallet, exact to the wei. Nobody sits in the middle.

https://t.co/H4PPccwgr3

[Strike @strike_xyz]

You say 80. The other seat says 30. Both stake 1 ETH.
It happens: you collect 1.45 ETH, they keep 0.55.
It does not: you keep 0.45, they collect 1.55.

Every branch sums to exactly 2 ETH. The escrow never owes a wei it does not hold.

[Strike @strike_xyz]

Strike takes nothing.

No protocol fee. No rake. No house edge. No spread.

The two stakes at a table only ever move between the two players, or straight back to them. Every wei that leaves your wallet is going to the other seat or returning to yours.