Cllr Stuart Bestwick

Notts County Councillor, Newstead Division. Shadow Cabinet Member for Finance at Notts CC. Newstead Abbey Ward Cllr at GBC. Chair Sherwood Forest Conservatives.

[Katie Lam @Katie_Lam_MP]

The Government say that they're “ending the asylum hotels”.

But they're doing it by pushing people into our communities - putting the public, particularly women and girls, at risk.

The only way to solve this problem is to detain and swiftly remove anybody who's here illegally.

[John Redwood @johnredwood]

The OBR forecast as Conservatives left office was for 2026 2% UK GDP growth, unemployment 4.2% and inflation 1.9% . After Labour’s tax rises they now forecast just 1.1% UK growth, unemployment up at 5.3% and inflation up at 2.3% for 2026.

[James Cleverly🇬🇧 @JamesCleverly]

Four pubs a day are closing under Labour.

Now, their 'nice pub tax' singles out rural village pubs for higher business rates simply because they are well-run, well-loved and well-located. It is punishing success.

Our Back Our High Streets Bill would end this.

https://t.co/6M80zEeuvs

[Kemi Badenoch @KemiBadenoch]

Britain is suffering from a collapse of consequences.

If we’re going to fix it, we need to get tough.

[Cllr Stuart Bestwick @stuart_bestwick]

@James1940 @WeHaveWaysPod @almurray As I live in the remnants of Sherwood Forest, I’m looking forward to it!

[Conservatives @Conservatives]

It's way too hot out there.

The next Conservative government will reverse the aircon ban created by @RobertJenrick, which blocks new homes from being built with air conditioning.

That's the one he's talking about here ⬇️

[The Spectator @spectator]

Labour's increase to employer National Insurance as part of the 2024 Budget may well have been the worst tax rise it was possible to come up with – leading only to lower wages and reduced employment.

Now Reform UK appear determined to find the worst possible tax cut, with their proposal to exempt overtime from income tax.

The party calls it a 'hard work bonus', says it will cost £5 billion a year, and that welfare cuts will pay for it. It is a clever and bold piece of PR. It is also, on almost any view, terrible.

✍️ Dan Neidle

Article | https://t.co/0srHYxXt1z

[Christopher Hope📝 @christopherhope]

Interesting public spat at the top of Reform UK over immigration. Most grown up political parties handle this sort of thing behind closed doors.

[Liam Halligan @LiamHalligan]

💥📺🎙️ NEW "When The Facts Change" Interview

Can the Tories rein in the UK's runaway welfare budget?

Welfare spending is set to balloon 19% to £373 billion by the scheduled end of this Parliament in 2029. Within that, working age health and disability benefits will surge 30% – to almost £100 billion. These are colossal sums.

The Tories are challenging the conventional wisdom –that trying to make welfare savings is electoral suicide.
The party is now pledging to make a chunky £47 billion of savings per year, with £23 billion of that to beslashed from the welfare bill.

The welfare savings are being championed by Helen Whately, Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary and, since 2015, MP for Faversham and Mid Kent.

Labour attempts to make welfare savings were last year firmly rejected by the party’s left-wing MPs. So are these Tory plans credible? Could the Conservatives control Britain’s runaway welfare spending.

Hit the link below for a detailed discussion with @Helen_Whately on When The Facts Change: Economics and Politics in a fast-moving world, with Liam Halligan

https://t.co/NKf0fQgSxX

[Julian Jessop @julianHjessop]

"Ten better tax cuts than Reform’s £14bn overtime gimmick" 👍

Another good takedown of Reform's tax break for overtime (hat tip @DanNeidle)...

https://t.co/o7z0y6MeH1

[Kevin Hollinrake MP @kevinhollinrake]

Reform’s flagship tax policy just got marked by independent experts. The verdict is brutal.

They costed tax-free overtime at £5bn. The real figure looks closer to £14bn. A £9bn hole in one announcement. 1/

[Steve Loftus @LoftusSteve]

This is the chef's kiss of Reform policy ideas.

The perfect example of public appeal vs retarded policy. Which is really what Reform is all about.

There are so many ways this would will be abused or backfire so I will list them all.

1. I said last night, company directors/owners will suddenly be earning 60 hours weeks every week (but not really).

2. Employee collusion - Business convert salaried roles to lower rate hourly pay, but pays fake "overtime". The employee gets more take home pay but the employer's payroll costs reduce.

3. Diversion - Many jobs don't pay overtime. Teachers for example. If they did, we'd be bankrupt. Why go into teaching on £35k a year when you could earn that on less hours with overtime elsewhere?

Efficiently run company don't have overtime opportunities at all, making them less attractive than those that do.

4. Unfair advantage - Let's say your a small landscaping company employing 5 guys by gaming the system above. You have an unfair advantage over the bigger company playing by the rules. Jobs will be lost as smaller, less scrupulous companies gain advantage over those that play by the rules.

5. It shrinks the job market - Offering overtime becomes a recruitment advantage. In which case employing 5 people to do a job with overtime is better than employing 6 with none.

6. It can shrink productivity - It's now in your interest to stretch your workload over more hours or game the system. Which means more hours worked for the same production.

7. If you think the answer is that there will be increased compliance enforcement and auditing from an already overwhelmed HMRC when Reform want to cut the civil service I'm afraid you're mistaken.

[Cllr Stuart Bestwick @stuart_bestwick]

@TheBarmyArmy Mike Brearley, and @GeoffreyBoycott obviously 🙄

[Oliver Cooper @OliverCooper]

While it makes for a good headline, this is a terrible policy for several reasons.

1. It would create a 'cliff edge' at £75,000, which means many people going from earning £75k to £76k would get hit by a tax bill that's bigger than their raise. This will hugely deter people from earning more.

2. It would be exceptionally easy to game to facilitate tax avoidance. Nothing would stop unscrupulous employers and and employees agreeing that the regular pay is very low, but an hour of overtime is paid (say) 100x ordinary wages. All of a sudden, the whole wage is tax-free.

3. It would be unfair between professions where hours are contracted and those it's not. The professional services sector, for example, rarely pays overtime. This would incentivise those professions to move to clock-punching: forcing professions to change their culture to suit government.

4. By targeting hours, it gives a tax break to work that takes longer. But we should be incentivising higher wages through higher productivity, not lower wages on longer hours.

5. Self-employed people and people who work multiple jobs wouldn't benefit from this. For absolutely no reason whatsoever.

Just cut taxes generally. Don't dream up schemes that make our tax system even more complicated and even more distortionary just to get a quick headline.

[Katie Lam @Katie_Lam_MP]

In 1980, we had one regulator for every 11,000 people working in financial services.

Today, it's closer to one regulator for every *75* people.

Bureaucrats always create more rules and always work to expand their powers. The idea that we can "regulate for growth" is ludicrous.

[Mel Stride @MelJStride]

Labour borrowed £24.3 billion last month - well above the OBR forecast and 25% higher than last April. Our debt interest spending was the highest of any April on record.

The recent spike in borrowing costs shows markets are increasingly worried about Keir Starmer’s replacement, leaving families to pick up the bill for a £300 Burnham Penalty.

Only the Conservatives have a leader with the backbone and strong team needed to restore confidence in the public finances by cutting debt through our Golden Economic Rule.

[Andrew Neil @afneil]

The UK borrowed another £24.3 billion in April, above the £20.9 billion forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility. 
The ONS said the debt interest bill rose to £10.3 billion last month – the highest on record for April, which marks the start of the new financial year. The government is paying more than £100 billion a year to service its debts. Yet a cacophony of Labour and Green pols think we should borrow even more.

[Voices of WW2 @VoicesofWW2]

86 years ago today, Winston Churchill, Prime Minister for exactly 5 days, was woken by his phone ringing at 7:30 a.m.

It was Paul Reynaud, the French Premier. His voice was hollow.

"We have been defeated. We are beaten; we have lost the battle."

Churchill, half-asleep, couldn't process it:

"Surely it can't have happened so soon?"

Reynaud: "The front is broken near Sedan. They are pouring through in great numbers with tanks and armoured cars."

The German invasion was 5 days old. The "impassable" Ardennes forest had just funneled seven Panzer divisions through France's weakest hinge.

The next day, Churchill flew to Paris. He asked General Gamelin a single question:

"Where is the strategic reserve?"

Gamelin shrugged. "Aucune."

None. France had no reserve. There was nothing behind the line that had just broken.

Churchill later wrote that this was one of the greatest shocks of his life. The country he'd grown up believing had the finest army in Europe had already lost the war. They just didn't know it yet.

Six weeks later, Paris fell.

[Andrew Griffith MP @griffitha]

This is the price of Labour’s leadership chaos.

30 Year Gilt yields and borrowing costs at their highest level in decades. Billions worth of extra costs.

All of us will pay dearly for Labour’s game of musical chairs.

[Julian Jessop @julianHjessop]

FYI, here is the OBR's debt interest ready reckoner, and an explainer 👇

1⃣ The annual cost of a 1%-point (100bp) increase in gilt yields will rise over time as new borrowing is financed at the higher rate. In year one it is just over £1bn, rising to more than £10bn in year five.

2⃣ The impact of an increase in short rates (the official interest rate set by the Bank of England) comes through more quickly (the Bank financed its purchases of gilts under "QE" by creating deposits on which it pays interest at the Bank rate).

3⃣ An increase in inflation also has a direct impact on debt interest payable, because of the UK's relatively large stock of inflation index-linked debt.

4⃣ Altogether, a sustained 1%-point (100bp) increase in gilt yields, short rates and inflation would add around £15bn to the annual debt interest payable in year one and around £26bn in year five.

(cc @IanMurrayMP 😉)

https://t.co/8bG3fdk892