One thing that is a must to watch is the compression between the 200D MA and the 200W MA which will result in a cross sometime in September.
Last time $BTC did that was in 2022 November which resulted in a quick capitulation and 2 weeks later, the bottom was in.
June will be a red month for $BTC
Seasonality is there for it to happen.
Technicals show that the correction is not over yet.
In fact, each correction has been unwound into a timespan of two months, where the first month is setting the tone and the second month is all about acceleration and bottoming.
This really blew my mind when I saw it.
One time every 4 year, June was incredibly pivotal for $BTC each cycle.
In 2014, June marked the high and when it was breached to the upside, it meant the bearmarket was over.
In 2018, 2022 we had a June low instead of a June high so when the low was breached to the downside, it meant that $BTC was in the final capitulation that set the bottom.
Now, in 2026 we seem to be having a June low again, much like 2018 and 2022.
What this means is all we have to do is wait and see where the June low ends up to be and then start buying incrementally once the low is breached.
It could be that instead of a July fake move up, we get a July fake move below the June low and continues into August, while the October or Q4 low would be a higher low. I have this in mind as a second scenario.
Bottom line is, let us see where June low ends up to be.