Time to update this quarterly chart for $ETH and bitcoin:native
$ETH below the March low and even February low.
bitcoin:native below the March low and holding February low.
This Q2 drop was by the same playbook as Q4 2025 and Q1 and basically it was like this:
The highs and lows of the months prior the quarter change served as liquidity zones. (September, December, March highs and lows).
The first move into a high or low of the month prior the quarter change was manipulation:
- If the first move took out the High of the month prior, then that was bearish. ( Q4 took out the September high, Q1 took out the December high, Q2 took out the March high).
-If the first move takes out the low instead, then that is inherently a bullish manipulation. (We did not saw this yet).
So what is next?...
June is the month prior Q3, just like September, December and March.
So...
We need to see the June highs and lows establish the June range.
We need to see what will be taken out first in July, August.
- If the highs will be taken out first=bearish manipulation.
- If the lows will be taken out first=bullish manipualtion.
June is a waiting month, so we will wait.
Yesterday $BTC lost the March High and $ETH lost the Q2 open at the same time.
We could have a bounce into a lower low, yes but ultimately $BTC is going to revisit the Q2 open while $ETH will go to March low.
Time to update this quarterly chart for $ETH and bitcoin:native
$ETH below the March low and even February low.
bitcoin:native below the March low and holding February low.
This Q2 drop was by the same playbook as Q4 2025 and Q1 and basically it was like this:
The highs and lows of the months prior the quarter change served as liquidity zones. (September, December, March highs and lows).
The first move into a high or low of the month prior the quarter change was manipulation:
- If the first move took out the High of the month prior, then that was bearish. ( Q4 took out the September high, Q1 took out the December high, Q2 took out the March high).
-If the first move takes out the low instead, then that is inherently a bullish manipulation. (We did not saw this yet).
So what is next?...
June is the month prior Q3, just like September, December and March.
So...
We need to see the June highs and lows establish the June range.
We need to see what will be taken out first in July, August.
- If the highs will be taken out first=bearish manipulation.
- If the lows will be taken out first=bullish manipualtion.
June is a waiting month, so we will wait.
One thing that is a must to watch is the compression between the 200D MA and the 200W MA which will result in a cross sometime in September.
Last time $BTC did that was in 2022 November which resulted in a quick capitulation and 2 weeks later, the bottom was in.
June will be a red month for $BTC
Seasonality is there for it to happen.
Technicals show that the correction is not over yet.
In fact, each correction has been unwound into a timespan of two months, where the first month is setting the tone and the second month is all about acceleration and bottoming.
This really blew my mind when I saw it.
One time every 4 year, June was incredibly pivotal for $BTC each cycle.
In 2014, June marked the high and when it was breached to the upside, it meant the bearmarket was over.
In 2018, 2022 we had a June low instead of a June high so when the low was breached to the downside, it meant that $BTC was in the final capitulation that set the bottom.
Now, in 2026 we seem to be having a June low again, much like 2018 and 2022.
What this means is all we have to do is wait and see where the June low ends up to be and then start buying incrementally once the low is breached.
It could be that instead of a July fake move up, we get a July fake move below the June low and continues into August, while the October or Q4 low would be a higher low. I have this in mind as a second scenario.
Bottom line is, let us see where June low ends up to be.