stumpyuk

Advocating Networked Commons Governance (NCG) - a practical British upgrade to fix elite disconnect, endless negation & gridlock.
Democracy matters.
Citizen

[stumpyuk @stumpyuk]

https://t.co/KZXUomsiRM

[Anglo Futurism Capital LP 🇬🇧🐿️ @RollingHedge]

I’m telling you now, this will be short lived.

1/ He has no idea what he’s doing. Rayner for health sec, Smiths lyrics, vibes and Manchesterism won’t cut it at national govt level
2/ Manchester is £1.3bn in the red under his ‘leadership’
3/ He’s already agreed to increase foreign aid spending by £21bn we don’t have
4/ Taxes will go up even further. Already highest since WW2
5/ Autumn budget spells fiscal crisis potential already (incoming PMs tend to be minded to do their most radical policy earliest)
6/ Spring budget will likely include more tax and spend and then will meet gravity of shortfall in tax receipts no one at HMT has modelled and that Burnham wouldn’t understand anyway. Or the damage of the autumn statement will already be baked in
7/ Then gilts crisis; marginal buyer of gilts is a hedge fund now with very mercurial tolerance
8/ Loss of confidence in electorate let alone his own party and parliament
9/ Then GE

I give him til May. Tops.

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

This is concerning. For the first time, a Chinese model Kimi K3 has taken #1 on the Frontend Code Arena and is scoring at or near the frontier on other benchmarks.

Meanwhile America is tying itself in knots: politicians and bureaucrats are banning new data centers, piling on state regulations, and pushing for new federal agencies to pre-approve frontier models.

This is how you lose the AI race. The rest of the world won’t play by our rules if we bog ourselves down. Permissionless innovation is how America won the internet and became the technological envy of the world. We can do it again with AI -- while addressing risks in a targeted way -- or we’ll watch our lead evaporate.

[David Frost @DavidGHFrost]

Only one phrase matters in Burnham's speech today.

"Britain took a series of wrong-turns in the 1980s."

Anyone who thinks that simply does not understand what happened in Britain's recent history and why, and is therefore doomed to fail to solve our problems. 👇

[Rahul Sidhu @rahul]

One of the most prolific criminals in all of San Francisco tells @adam22 that “crime in San Francisco is over with” because of Flock cameras + drones. He complains that he can’t even do drivebys anymore.

It’s simple: when the risk of getting caught is too high, crime plummets.

[stumpyuk @stumpyuk]

@amlivemon I said this from the outset of the tournament...

[Patrick Collison @patrickc]

It's been interesting and puzzling to witness the problems with accuracy in UK economic statistics over the past few years. (See the links in the next tweet for more.) It seems that the Office for National Statistics, ONS, now struggles to effectively measure basic figures such as employment, trade, and inflation. This resulted in a quite scathing government report published last summer, where Robert Devereux, a former permanent secretary, concluded that "most of the well-publicised problems with core economic statistics are the consequence of ONS’s own performance."

There's a lot of discussion about the travails facing the UK these days (including this big piece in The Atlantic a few weeks ago[1]), and the problems with the ONS feel like an unsettling microcosm of diffuse decline in broader institutional competence.

Anyhow: at Stripe, we became curious about the UK's published entrepreneurship data. While we observe a boom in many parts of the world, official figures don't show a similar increase in the UK. In the latest Stripe Economics post, we dug into the data, and, as far as we can tell, the official figures are probably misleading. The good and the bad news (mostly good, I think!) is that the UK is almost certainly witnessing an unmeasured boom in entrepreneurship: https://t.co/R7oTZNmxc6

UK-specific issues aside, I suspect that this measurement question is illustrative of forthcoming econometric challenges. Keeping the world's macro indicators up-to-date in response to the faster-than-usual changes wrought by AI will be both increasingly difficult and increasingly important in the coming years.

[1] https://t.co/OAnwRmpyON

[stumpyuk @stumpyuk]

@sophielouisecc ...or be able to buy their own home.

[stumpyuk @stumpyuk]

@amlivemon I told you it was coming home!

[stumpyuk @stumpyuk]

@Ben04650002 You can't even comprehend a simple police statement, so I can fully understand why you can't/won't engage in the more technical rendering. Jog on now...

[stumpyuk @stumpyuk]

@Ben04650002 @InspGadgetBlogs One minute you are worringly obsessed about the minutiae of the police statement, then when you get a comprehensive answer to your repeated "Why?" question, you run away. You were never interested in the answer, were you?

[stumpyuk @stumpyuk]

@RuthMBettie @GHWTowler There is a lot of truth in this, but failing to follow guidance has over-sized implications down the line at Jury Trial.

[stumpyuk @stumpyuk]

@RuthMBettie @GHWTowler If they hadn't made the statements, they would be pilloried for not following guidance in combatting the online speculation and thereby risking the integrity of the operation. It would have handed Defence Counsel the first small wedge in their case.

[Iain Martin @iainmartin1]

Is it really true that Parliament is being sent away for the summer and only then a new Prime Minister will be appointed? This seems… odd.

[stumpyuk @stumpyuk]

@JuliaHB1 Sorry no, the national guidelines place an obligation on them to counter widespread online speculation. https://t.co/rrDITvCT42

[stumpyuk @stumpyuk]

https://t.co/TPxvH6NaNp

[stumpyuk @stumpyuk]

@LupineLives Is he really an upgrade on Starmer (who whipped his MPs to vote against him being referred to the Parliamentary Standards Committee)? Snivelling weasels, the lot of them.

[stumpyuk @stumpyuk]

@Ben04650002 @InspGadgetBlogs Formal police guidelines say otherwise:

[stumpyuk @stumpyuk]

https://t.co/TPxvH6NaNp

[stumpyuk @stumpyuk]

https://t.co/TPxvH6NaNp

[Rich @rich_rdctd]

@UKDecline Damn, my counter is slow

[stumpyuk @stumpyuk]

@LupineLives They've re-arrested the the 2nd guy (from Rotherham), gives the Police more time on the clock to keep him in custody.