BlackStyx Capital

A member-funded, conflict-free research publication for contrarian long and short investment ideas.

Independent. Critical. Unusual.

No inv. advice!

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

BlackStyx stress-tested two energy producers at lower oil prices, looking for one thing: a business that keeps generating cash when the cycle turns. One cleared the bar. It covers its base dividend at $40–45 oil, runs on little debt, and keeps buying back its own stock.

One is our latest investment idea. Go figure...

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

@mastenmast @JesseCohenInv Thanks. Never knew Volvo got split and the Cars' branch got sold. However, they're both still producing vehicles and share the Volvo logo, so they keep being intertwined not only by history...

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

@mastenmast @JesseCohenInv So why would the class B shares not drop that much? Where is the difference here?

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

BlackStyx stress-tested two energy producers at lower oil prices, looking for one thing: a business that keeps generating cash when the cycle turns.

One cleared the bar. It covers its base dividend at $40–45 oil, runs on little debt, and keeps buying back its own stock.

It's a defensive pick, and that's the point.

Which one made the cut? It's our newest Investment Idea on Black Styx.

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

The web is awash with investment ideas. Hundreds of analysts, publishers and authors. From niche websites to Seeking Alpha, https://t.co/E9uNELbgFa and research aggregators like AlphaSense or (new) Bullpen.

Paid or free, they flood you with research, recommendations and forecasts. Fundamental analysis, technical analysis, esoteric theories — sometimes hardly any analysis at all. But who is behind these ideas? What are their real interests and entanglements? And where are measurable results?

We take a different approach:
→ Selective ideas, few, but often unconventional
→ Independent research
→ Quality over quantity
→ Transparent, measurable performance

Four investment ideas this month. All in the green.

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

The web is awash with investment ideas. Hundreds of analysts, publishers and authors. From niche websites to Seeking Alpha, https://t.co/E9uNELbgFa and research aggregators like AlphaSense or (new) Bullpen.

Paid or free, they flood you with research, recommendations and forecasts. Fundamental analysis, technical analysis, esoteric theories — sometimes hardly any analysis at all. But who is behind these ideas? What are their real interests and entanglements? And where are measurable results?

We take a different approach:
→ Selective ideas, few, but often unconventional
→ Independent research
→ Quality over quantity
→ Transparent, measurable performance

Four investment ideas this month. All in the green.

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

Fresh and free: this week's Styx Update

Newsletter – Black Styx Capital

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

19 open and running activist campaigns are covered by us in our Weekly Styx News for calendar week 41 - as always, the newsletter is free to read on our website.

3 had a downward trend this week, 2 from last week are in the reds, while 4 new ones survived their first week, and another 2 were closed out by our risk system.

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

@RonStoeferle What are the odds that #France will be bailed out and the #Eurozone will agree on a debt haircut for most of its members?

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

For the integrity of price discovery, the noise remains a definitive warning sign. When the truth requires a cheering section to be believed, it might not be the absolute truth after all.

See https://t.co/3Wn8EmRlx2 for the full opinion …

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

Early Sunday news - find the latest edition of our Weekly Styx Update for CW40 on our website:

Transparency was in short supply among this week’s four new campaigns: two sit behind paywalls, and Ethos ($LIFE) (again!) comes from a publisher with a trading arm of its own. The open one, Fugazi’s Greenland Energy ($GLND) short, is up 32.7% but missed the bigger story...

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

@FugaziResearch https://t.co/y8sng2SacC

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

@FinancialReek99 It’s hard to tell, but probably no. 57.5% drop would mean that 80 Mile is worth nothing, which is unlikely the case. The mergers‘ terms are known since September 8th, so market should have already priced it in. There are more valuation items to it given the projects pipeline…

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

$GLND has until Tuesday, Oct 6, to firm up its all-share bid for its own drilling partner 80 Mile.

On current terms: ~59m new shares vs 43.7m today. Existing holders end up with ~43%. So that doesn't look like an acquisition, but more of a handover; with insiders on both sides.

Read the whole story on our website

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

Strip it down and both articles say the same thing: Nvidia's earnings rest on customers assuming their GPUs stay valuable. I don't buy it neither. Once that assumption goes, so does the demand, and given that Nvidia is helping fund the buildout, it's now on the hook from both ends.

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

@lenogeForever ah true. Thanks for pointing that out

[BlackStyx Capital @StyxCapital]

@gamesblazer06 ... and Deutsche, and Commerzbank, and BNP, and Santander...