yyyyys

[yyyyys @su_yih]

@Rocky_Bitcoin hmm...

[The Wolf Of All Streets @scottmelker]

The S&P 500 is sitting near record highs.

But the internals are weak.

As of Wednesday, 257 of the 500 stocks in the index were trading below their 200-day moving averages.

That’s more than half the index underwater on a
widely watched long-term momentum measure.

Breadth is bearish.

Now look at crypto.

Of the top 100 tokens by market cap, 88, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, are trading above their 200-day SMAs.

Most of those same coins are also holding above their 50-day and 100-day averages.

That’s a clean, bullish configuration across the board.

And here’s the part that stands out: $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $SOL and the majority of the rest are still well below their all-time highs.

They look relatively inexpensive compared with equities that are already pricing in a lot of good news.

Weak breadth in stocks near highs has historically been a yellow flag.

Strong breadth in crypto while prices remain far from peaks is the opposite setup.

The data doesn’t lie.

[yyyyys @su_yih]

@financialjuice hahahahahahahahaha

[Bybit @Bybit_Official]

How TradFi perpetual contracts work! https://t.co/m4oesYcUf3

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Markets are bracing for a rate hike.

So, how do US stocks usually behave following the first hike of a Fed tightening cycle?

The S&P 500 has declined by an average of -4.0% over the 6 weeks following the first Fed rate hike of a cycle across 7 such episodes since 1988.

Subsequently, however, stocks recovered all of those losses over the next 5-6 weeks on average.

Then, in the 6 months following the first hike, the S&P 500 returned +4.0% on average.

After 12 months, the S&P 500’s average gain surged to +9.0%, with positive returns occurring in every episode except 2022.

Fed rate hikes have historically been great buying opportunities.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Inflation expectations skyrocketing among Americans:

US consumers now expect inflation to rise to ~4.6% over the next year, the 3rd-highest reading over the last 12 months.

This is now 1.1 percentage points above the level seen at the start of 2026.

This comes as the proportion of consumers spontaneously mentioning gasoline as a concern rose to ~30%, its 4th-highest in at least 2 years.

At the same time, ~37% of consumers mentioned tariffs, the highest proportion since April.

Americans think another wave of inflation has begun.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

As shown in our analysis below, there is a near-perfect correlation between oil prices and US CPI inflation.

Oil prices are up another +22% since the last CPI inflation report was released on August 12th.

It's pretty clear what comes next.

[m444k @m444k_]

Stan Druckenmiller told Scott Bessent exactly what it would take to stop Washington from spending: "the clowns in Washington - unless they get a signal from the bond market, they're just going to keep spending"

what follows is him walking through the math nobody bothers to do on corporate America, the reason a single Trump tweet took him from 93% invested to flat, and what he believes the Fed has actually constructed over the past decade

"when the Trump tweet went out I went from 93% invested to net flat. not because I'm trying to make money - I just don't want to play in this environment"

"corporate debt went from $6 trillion to $10 trillion. profits went from $1.7 to $2.2 trillion. and the interest cost on that extra $4 trillion only went up 23%. you'd think profits would explode with that formula. they went up 29% - over eight years"

"we have all these zombies walking around. the most innovative period since the late 1800s, and you're hardly seeing bankruptcies - because there have been no market signals from the Fed"

"if I were trying to create a deflationary bust, I would do exactly what the world central banks have been doing"

save this and watch the conversation in full - then read the article below ↓

[yyyyys @su_yih]

@uttdkola neymar

[yyyyys @su_yih]

Petition for a Lawful, Fair and 请依法、公正处理揭阳「旺旺妈妈」虐待致死事件——共同守护生命尊严，拒绝暴力文化！ - Sign the Petition! https://t.co/rz0zE8geyQ via @ChangeOrg_MY

[Manish Kumar @manishkhosiya]

BREAKING: Claude can now run Stock Market research like a top consulting firm (for free).

Here are 10 Claude prompts that replace $100K/year stock analysts (Save for later)

[Rohit @heyrohitai]

🚨 Anthropic just showed a 24-minute workshop on how to actually do prompts for Claude.

Taught by the people who built it.

Free. No registration. No paywall.

I've seen $300 courses that don't cover what they teach in the first 8 minutes.

Watch it and bookmark it now.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Digital Credit. Digital Money. Digital Equity. Digital Treasury.

My conversation with @ColeMacro at @BTCPrague on the future of capital markets, followed by Q&A on the nuances of Bitcoin-backed securities and corporate finance.

[狮国游民 @SgLittlesmart]

这 1 小时采访，值得反复听。
受访者是一位顶级数学家投资人，
创造了 1000 亿美元以上财富，
平均回报率高达 66%。

很多人认为，
他的认知深度甚至超过巴菲特、索罗斯和达利奥。
里面的投资知识， 比 20 万美元 MBA 还值钱。

先收藏，再书签。 无论如何，听完它。

[Natalie Brunell ⚡️ @natbrunell]

Bitcoin to $1M isn't a prediction.

It follows a law of nature.

@Giovann35084111 joins me to break down the Power Law governing Bitcoin's price trajectory.

The same pattern exists behind earthquakes, galaxies, the growth of cities, the internet's adoption and more.

TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 What is Bitcoin Power Law Theory?
7:58 What Does Bitcoin Power Law Explain?
14:03 The Bitcoin Chart You Can't Unsee
14:52 Bitcoin's Price = Time to the Power of ~6
21:30 Bitcoin Follows Laws of Nature, Just Like the Universe
26:22 97% of Bitcoin's Behavior Explained by One Equation
33:37 Bitcoin's Addresses Grow Like the Internet, But Faster
34:10 Why Bitcoin Is a Bottom-Up Network, Not an S-Curve
37:44 Does the Power Law Apply to Gold or Nvidia? No. Here's Why.
39:18 S&P 500 Is Just Beating Inflation - Bitcoin Is Something Else
49:43 Price Predictions: $120K in 2026, $1M in 8 Years, $10M in 20?
56:40 Bitcoin Has Gone Up 100 Million Times. Still Has 100x Left.

[yyyyys @su_yih]

@elonmusk Please offer this in MALAYSIA!

[AI Will @FinanceYF5]

Jane Street 以年薪 $22 万–$60 万聘请了这位初级员工，因为他利用 AI 分析数万亿条数据。

在这场 1 小时的讲座中——他展示了如何借助自己的机器研究数万亿的数据点。

收藏并观看它，而不是看 Netflix，来学习如何做到同样的事情

[炼金叔叔 @AirdropAlchemis]

上个月我参与Saturn的时候，本来只是想顺手理财的😂

结果它这两天连续摊牌：Season 1拿5%的代币份额空投，转头又官宣种子轮融资完成，Spartan Group领投，SIG、Anchorage Digital也在里面。

叔本来只是去蹭饭，坐下才发现聊的是一门正经生意？

Saturn机制我之前写过了，简单理解是它把Michael Saylor那套Strategy玩法搬到了链上：借钱买BTC，再通过STRC支付约11.5%+股息。

sUSDat做的，就是把STRC分红tokenize，再叠加USDat储备利息补贴。收益从哪来，怎么��导，至少这张账本能看得下去。

上线一个月TVL做到1.2亿美金，最近又接了Strata，推出srUSDat和jrUSDat。一个偏固定收益、低波动，一个偏波动弹性，收益结构开始切细了。

叔向来觉得市场真正缺的是确定性，现在积分、份额、融资信息已经清晰了，接下来就是Season 1结束的时间了，叔目前的策略是买的Pendle PT，感兴趣的同学可以看看我之前写的文章（https://t.co/vXdjt6enJr）

继续观察，理性配置。
希望这次我们都能赢。

[Bonna | U酪乳 @bonnazhu]

关于 @strata_markets 保不保本金值得说一下
Note：STRC 不等同现金，本身存在价格风险

这是一个比较容易混淆的点。

本身 Strata 的机制侧重的是底层资产 Yield 波动风险的拆分（而另一个 Risk Tranching 项目 @roycoprotocol 则更专注本金风险的拆分），由于大部分收益类资产都采用

- Base Token（ERC-20）
- Yield-Bearing Token（ERC-4626 Vault）

两个搭配的形式，因此 APY 都是以 Yield-Bearing Token 的 NAV 汇率变化来衡量的，而所谓 Junior 提供 Risk Coverage，也是提供一种吸收 NAV 汇率负向波动的保险。什么导致 NAV 变化，就决定了什么风险被转移。

这里我们分成：

- Yield 波动
- Market Price 波动 (本金风险体现之一）
- Exploit 冲击（本金风险体现之二）

三种最常见的风险，放到 Strata 上来看：

1）正常：如 Ethena 的 srUSDe

吸收 Yield 波动
不吸收 Market Price 波动
但 Exploit 时也有保护

正常情况下，Base Token 和 Yield-Bearing Token 的底层资产都是相同的，例如 @ethena 的 USDe 和 sUSDe，都对应了 Delta-Neutral 策略的Backing。因此，正常 NAV 汇率变化唯一的原因就是 Yield Accrual，Junior 也只吸收 Yield 波动。但也有例外，即 Ethena 协议被盗，导致 sUSDe 处于 Undercollateralized 状态的时候，此时发生了 NAV 汇率的超预期下跌，这在 Strata 机制中，属于负 APY 的情况，是会保的。

2）特殊：如 Saturn 的 srUSDat

吸收 Yield 波动
吸收 Market Price 波动
Exploit 时也有保护

@saturn_credit 特殊之处在于，USDat 和 sUSDat 的底层资产不同。USDat 本质是100% 由美国国债支撑的现金等价物，而 sUSDat 的底层包含了 STRC。��此 sUSDat : USDat 的 NAV 汇率变化，不仅反映 Yield Accrual，也包含了 STRC 相对于美元的价格变动，以及 Protocol Exploit 时的 NAV Shock。在 Strata 的机制下，这些波动都会被 Junior 吸收。所以 srUSDat 在事实上获得了比 Ethena srUSDe 更全面的保护。

总结：

Saturn 吸收：yield + market price + exploit
Ethena 吸收：yield + exploit

而这样一来，
srUSDat 相比较于 sUSDat 区别也就比较明确了，
前者虽 APY 低，但多了 STRC 价格保护 + Exploit 保护。

[The ₿itcoin Therapist @TheBTCTherapist]

Full interview

Credit: @PeterMcCormack

https://t.co/w4cd61uyQy