Pascal Dufresne

[Pascal Dufresne @submarnaclassic]

If you put every dime of your cashier wage into a precious metals ETF you will be richer than every Anthropic stakeholder in five years

[Pascal Dufresne @submarnaclassic]

The global economy is hanging on by the lone thread of two AI companies that have staked their solvency on a duplicate of Lehman’s business model and you’re blackpilling

[Pascal Dufresne @submarnaclassic]

The real catastrophe would be Trump striking a deal with Iran before the stock market has a chance to collapse. You just get Democrats in power, inflation, Israel satisfied, and no investment opportunity.

[Pascal Dufresne @submarnaclassic]

The way the election was lost is more of a disaster than the result.

[Pascal Dufresne @submarnaclassic]

I'm not despairing. All I feel is relief that the last American election I will ever care about has ended.

[Pascal Dufresne @submarnaclassic]

There are people here who think American election outcomes are bound by some voter logic which punishes "broken promises" hahahahaha

[Pascal Dufresne @submarnaclassic]

Election results maps make me nauseous

[Pascal Dufresne @submarnaclassic]

@FromPemberley In any case, I don't see how the strait closure, even if it endures for the next several years, leads to that outcome. If the mechanism is just supply chain ruptures, these are flexible in the long run, and govs can intervene to sate the electorate in the short run.

[Pascal Dufresne @submarnaclassic]

@FromPemberley I don't think we can accurately predict the political realignment that would follow from a global economic cataclysm. The incumbent order further entrenching itself with the assent of a desperate population (as in the plandemic) is no less plausible than a demise of woke.

[Pascal Dufresne @submarnaclassic]

@FromPemberley Naturally, markets will falter but these conditions will have to reach 1929 intensity or persist for years beyond Trump's term to have lasting political effects. Meanwhile the deportation agenda, entirely reliant on ICE funding, is dead w/ the impending loss of Congress

[Pascal Dufresne @submarnaclassic]

@FromPemberley Oil has reached the 2022 high but this has not transferred to EU natural gas because turmoil in the gulf is less of a structural problem for Europe. Not to deny the importance of the strait for supply chains generally, but surely this cannot surpass, in duration and scale, COVID

[Pascal Dufresne @submarnaclassic]

@FromPemberley Why didn't the 2022 shock, when the EU govs themselves cut off their primary fuel source, catalyze the right wing takeover? Europe is much less reliant on Arab gas and prices have not approached the Russia crisis levels

[Pascal Dufresne @submarnaclassic]

@ck52045642 I keep one in my wallet. Always good to have one on hand