Subu Trade

Trading large trends/key themes and smaller opportunities in between.

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

New Markets Report (free): Is the Bottom in? Here's what history says

Included: 50+ charts on stocks, commodities, bonds, currencies

https://t.co/IPs0tAPflo

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NYSE Advance-Decline Line is on track to hit a new all-time high today — its first in over 100 days.

Breadth is leading the market higher.

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NASDAQ 100 is on track to climb above its 200 day moving average for the first time in 2 months.

Tends to be bullish for stocks over the coming months ⬇️

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My latest Markets Report: has the rally run out of steam?

https://t.co/1mJGbQyIX6

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Asset Managers are short the U.S. Dollar, according to the COT Report

They’ve never been right before.

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VIX fell 5 straight weeks, with the total decline exceeding -10

Here’s how the S&P 500 performed after similar setups ⬇️

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AAII Bears is now at 51.5%

This is 11 straight weeks with more than 50% Bears, a new record.

Despite the rally, bears won’t give up.

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Today the S&P 500 is on track to be Up 8 days in a row, while under its 200 day moving average.

Could we get a small pullback soon? ⬇️

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Looking at this from a different angle:

Here's what happens next when the S&P is up 8 days in a row, with a total gain exceeding +8%

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AAII Bears is now at 59.3%

Bears' 10 week average is at 58%, a record high

Relentless bearish sentiment

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This is the 10th consecutive week with more than 50% AAII Bears

This has never happened before.

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S&P 500 is up 7 straight days, while under the 200 day moving average

Forward returns over the next few days ⬇️

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The S&P 500 fell more than -10% during this month, but is on track to close within -2% below last month's Close.

What a reversal.

The last time this happened was during the Great Depression.

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#FunFact

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If the S&P closes green today, it will be Up 6 straight days with a total gain exceeding 7%

S&P 500’s forward returns ⬇️

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The % of Consumers Expecting Stocks to Decline jumped by +23.7% over the past 3 months

A record jump in bearish sentiment.

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48.5% of consumers now expect Stocks to fall over the next 12 months (according to the Conference Board).

This is the most pessimism since October 2011

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The S&P 500 went up 5 days in a row, gaining over +7%

A short-term pullback is possible.

But historically, stocks were consistently higher 6–12 months later.

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*Barely up 5 days in a row

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The NASDAQ Composite is up more than 1% for 4 straight days.

In the past 30 years, this often led to short-term pullbacks.