Chris Arnold

[Chris Arnold @SugarHBear]

@beyond90seconds Does not appear to be active, but victims are being treated. 🙏

https://t.co/j34RuSKqQK

[Arsenal @Arsenal]

The Arsenal. Your Premier League champions.

[Chris Arnold @SugarHBear]

@cobrown Caleb, your world-class podcast is what introduced me to Cato & why I became a supporter.

The organization is losing something truly special.

Thank you so much for all the episodes over all the years!

[Chris Arnold @SugarHBear]

@SeattleKraken Bring Back the Red Alert band!

[Chris Arnold @SugarHBear]

@deerich101 Although I would have said the same 3 quarters ago 😉

[Chris Arnold @SugarHBear]

@iantabbs @agnostoxxx Math isn’t hard, and yet investors don’t even try it. *33-year-old* Arm is pricing its IPO at 21x sales and 106x earnings. 🤪“Arm prices IPO at $52 per share, valuing chip designer at $55.5 billion.”
revenue $2.68B, net income $524M
https://t.co/gO3Og87x33

[Chris Arnold @SugarHBear]

@MichaelKantro Never mind that the article’s leading chart bases their soft-landing case on the not-yet-revised August payroll number, which will be revised next month to show jobs below “prepandemic trends.”

[Chris Arnold @SugarHBear]

@wolfofwolfst Counterpoint: check the very first recession on that chart.

[Chris Arnold @SugarHBear]

@MacroAlf See also August 2008: "This was a surprisingly strong report that should end the discussion about a recession, at least for now."
https://t.co/k9Q6NJwnA3

[Eventually Consistent Capital @EventuallyCC]

"Cheery Retrospection"
As late as 8/29/2008, economists saw 🔼-revised GDP as a reason that recession was not in the offing.

"This was a surprisingly strong report that should end the discussion about a recession, at least for now."

Recession had actually begun 9 mos earlier.

[Chris Arnold @SugarHBear]

@BackTheBunny @AriDavidPaul 🤔 In a disastrous hard-landing, could we see the formerly non-cash SBC expense become a cash labor expense in companies where the stock price falls far enough? This could be a black swan-within-a-swan, since I don't think today's extreme use of SBC has been tested in a crisis?

[Chris Arnold @SugarHBear]

@WallStCynic In the June Q, $AFRM turned $82M of extra revenue into $2M of extra profit (well, less loss). That’s 3% margin on that marginal revenue.

That means 11yo Affirm would just need to grow sales 15x larger to break even! 🤪

Could be worse – last Q Affirm lost more money w/ extra rev

[Chris Arnold @SugarHBear]

@Dynamicbrands @WallStCynic It ain't over 'til it's over.
"Blackstone will continue to be the majority stakeholder with a 73% interest."

[Chris Arnold @SugarHBear]

@blaqk_bear @MichaelKantro https://t.co/3cLDVR1Dfx

[Chris Arnold @SugarHBear]

@EW19994400 @MichaelKantro https://t.co/3cLDVR1Dfx

[Chris Arnold @SugarHBear]

@MichaelKantro Original image with a little higher fidelity:
https://t.co/3cLDVR1Dfx

[Eventually Consistent Capital @EventuallyCC]

And then there were none...
Except for bots & impersonators. ✖

[Eventually Consistent Capital @EventuallyCC]

Channeling Carnac the Magnificent:

"Either way, the wrong answer."

🌬✉

[Eventually Consistent Capital @EventuallyCC]

$UBER claims its first GAAP-profitable quarter at the same time their G&A expense mysteriously drops by $451M sequentially, more than the amount of the "profit."

Coincidentally also the same qtr that the CFO looks for a new gig. Uber will need to find a new porcine beautician.

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

Home price to median income ratio is at levels higher than even the 2008 housing bubble. Let that sink in.

[Eventually Consistent Capital @EventuallyCC]

A hard-landing recession would crash the mkt so hard, & people are oblivious. Such bear mkts don't end before Main St flees equities.

In 2002 & 2009 equity allocation fell below 25% of assets. In 2022-Q3 we were still above 34%, higher than the 2007 PEAK. Has only risen since.