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What do today's large scale protests throughout Bangladesh, involving hundreds of thousands of people, many of which are calling very directly for Sheikh Hasina to resign, mean?
The protests are unlikely to stop. They are triggered by a quite understandable deep emotional response in the country to the killing by the government's law enforcement authorities of at least 200 people, most of whom were students and ordinary people.
The killings have scarred the nation. There is huge anger. And the Government's response has been unbelievably crude - blaming the opposition, calling them "terrorists", not taking any responsibility. And people just have had enough of the lies. They don't believe the Awami League any more, in part because they have seen what has happened in front of their eyes, or in videos which literally show enforcement authorities shooting at and killing innocent protesting students and others in cold blood. People, many of whom used to support the Awami League and use to speak poorly about the opposition alternatives, now strongly feel that the Awami League has no moral right to remain in power.
In the past the Awami League government's narratives against the opposition hit home, and were often accepted by large sections of civil society. They have effective control of the TV, and there are only a few independent newspapers, which helps. But the situation is different now. It really feels like the Awami league has lost the room, it has lost the country, in fact. It is really difficult to see what they can do now.
The Government could of course do an about-turn. Agree to a UN investigation, accept their responsibility for the killings etc. But it would be such a huge u-turn for the government to make, and very difficult to see the prime minister doing that, having called the Jamaat/BNP opposition as "terrorists". It is also not in her nature. The government may not even survive even if they did that; in the end, people are thinking how can a government that has killed so many remain in power?
Clearly, if Bangladesh was like Iran or other highly repressive countries, perhaps the government could use increased repression to to control the population and the country. But Bangladesh is not like that - and whilst the law enforcement authorities have been very loyal to the Awami League, they would unlikely to willing to take part in the levels of repression that would be necessary.
The Bangladesh government is now looking towards India, the Awami League's principal supporter. The Indian government will no doubt do many things to help Bangladesh, but in the end, in the context of these huge protests, they can only do so much. They will however certainly ensure that Sheikh Hasina remains safe, and will airlift her out of the country, if things were ever to get dangerous for her. India will provide as much political support as they can, until they realise that it is not working.
The liberal democratic international community now have an important role to play. It has to try and persuade the Awami League that it is in their best interests now to resign and allow some form of peaceful transfer of power of some kind of army-backed government, as a prelude to sometime in the near future to free and fair elections. No-one ideally wants the army involved, but there is no way to avoid a blood bath unless that is the case. The countnry's army is the only institution in the county that can play that "independent" role. The prime minister though is not going to listen to the West. The only way that she will even think about doing it is if India pushes them in this direction. So the liberal democratic international community must pressure India.
However, right now, there is no clarity that "the West" is thinking like this at all. Although the EU has issued a strongly worded statement, no other country has; they have only condemned violence generally, rather than the law enforcement killings in particular.
Although the Awami League has not come to power through free and fair elections since 2009, the West has supported Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League, seeing them, despite their authoritarianism, as providing stability and economic development. However, the costs of the West now supporting authoritarianism and acquiescing to serious human rights violations, is coming home to roost, as the people of the country are finally asserting themselves. The West should realise that and change their diplomatic postures.
Right now, the only question seems to be is how long wil the Awami League remain in power. There is a kind of popular revolution taking place in the country, and many people think that Sheikh Hasina should read the writing on the wall, both metaphorically and literally. It says: Resign.