Suldaan Guuleed

Tracking Al-Shabaab & ISIS-Somalia. OSINT, conflict analysis, organizational dynamics, operations, financing, propaganda & counterterrorism.

[Suldaan Guuleed @suldaan_guuleed]

Fake news..!!

[S.A 🇸🇴 @S_Ali0011]

Breaking News:
US Crusaders withdraws from Balidogle military base.
This is fantastic news.
#Somalia

[Suldaan Guuleed @suldaan_guuleed]

@S_Ali0011 Fake news!

[Wargelin Analytica @wargelinn]

Breaking News
Internal sources within Al-Shabaab indicate that a senior figure, reportedly more influential than former Amniyat chief Yusuf Geescade, may have been killed in a drone strike in Jilib in early October 2026. The information is yet to be confirmed.
Follow Wargelin Analytica for further updates as more information becomes available

[Suldaan Guuleed @suldaan_guuleed]

@1taha_p @AntiExtremism87 That was in a period of two years 2015-2017.

[Suldaan Guuleed @suldaan_guuleed]

@AntiExtremism87 The mistake ISIS-Somalia did was that it tried to cultivate new recruits from within al-Shabaab. That mistake was DEADLY, and later on shaped the future of ISIS in Somalia.

[Suldaan Guuleed @suldaan_guuleed]

@AntiExtremism87 The same case happened in Somalia in 2016, when a group of al-Shabaab members joined ISIS global and pledged allegience to al Bagdadi. Around 2000 ISIS recruits have been either killed or jailed by al-shabaab. The fact is that the two groups have a zero-sum game with each other.

[Suldaan Guuleed @suldaan_guuleed]

From Somalia to the halls of power 🇸🇴🌍

Sagal Abdi-Wali in the UK and Ilhan Omar in the US share Somali roots, refugee journeys, and a place in national politics while wearing the hijab.

Two journeys. Two countries. One remarkable connection.

#SomaliDiaspora #SomaliExcellence

[Suldaan Guuleed @suldaan_guuleed]

Al-Shabaab claims to have targeted Somali government military targets, destroying two security outposts: one in the Jamhuriya neighborhood of Mogadishu and the other in Halgan, Hiiraan region, central Somalia.

[Villa Somalia @TheVillaSomalia]

Madaxwaynaha Jamhuuriyadda Mudane @HassanSMohamud ayaa ka qaybgalay Xuska Maalinka Calanka Soomaaliyeed ee 12’ka Oktoobar. 🇸🇴

[Suldaan Guuleed @suldaan_guuleed]

@SNAForce operations against Al-Shabaab in Mahas district, Hiiraan, were reported by @SONNALIVE. Independent confirmation of operational results remains limited.

[The Daily Somalia @TheDailySomalia]

Somalia marked the 72nd anniversary of National Flag Day with an official ceremony celebrating the Somali flag, first adopted on October 12, 1954, as a symbol of independence, unity and sovereignty.

#Somalia

[Suldaan Guuleed @suldaan_guuleed]

@AP has reported that ~ 1.92 million Somali children aged six months to under five years are suffering from, or expected to experience, acute malnutrition requiring treatment during the period ending in June 2027.

https://t.co/xYLfF1yvzS

[Suldaan Guuleed @suldaan_guuleed]

#NewProfilePic

[Sirine Mourad @AntiExtremism87]

In a speech at a graduation ceremony for a class of al-Shabaab judges,the group’s spokesman,Ali Rage,said people from inside and outside Somalia bring cases to its courts and that implementing Islamic law has been one of the group’s goals since its founding. His main points were:

[Sara Harmouch, Ph.D. د.سارة هرموش @Dr_SaraHarmouch]

What does a province that stopped fighting still give the #IslamicState? IS-Yemen hasn’t claimed an attack since 2022, yet it supplied the group’s global spokesman. My latest in @JamestownTweets with @MohamedBinFisal https://t.co/yrjq6RJsdc

[Sirine Mourad @AntiExtremism87]

How could broadcasting Nidal Hasan’s execution turn him into an icon for lone-actor attackers? Could a public execution—and the identity of those carrying it out—broaden sympathy for him in Muslim circles? How would ISIS and AQ use the footage?
My article
https://t.co/apiJHVGnEk

[Suldaan Guuleed @suldaan_guuleed]

Al-Shabaab recorded 81 attacks in September, down 47% from August’s 152. However, the figure remains above the 2026 monthly average, warranting continued monitoring.

©️ @G88Daniele

#Somalia #AlShabaab #SecurityAnalysis

[Suldaan Guuleed @suldaan_guuleed]

@wargelinn Keep in mind that the group leader Ahmed Diriye was born and raisee in Ethiopia

[Wargelin Analytica @wargelinn]

Al-Shabaab’s growing media attention to Ethiopia’s internal conflicts warrants closer scrutiny.

The group’s media outlets appears increasingly interested in developments inside Ethiopia, raising important questions about how the organization might seek to exploit instability beyond Somalia’s borders.

One notable development is the participation of Nageeye Ali Khalif, a young poet who joined Al-Shabaab in 2023, in “Andalus podcast” discussing Ethiopia’s conflict. His educational background in Ethiopia, including studies in political science and mass media, highlights a potentially important dimension of the group’s recruitment and propaganda strategy: the use of individuals with familiarity with neighboring societies to communicate its narratives and engage audiences beyond Somalia.

THREE strategic considerations merit attention.

✅ First, recruitment and mobilization: Al-Shabaab may perceive Ethiopia’s internal divisions as an opportunity to attract disaffected individuals, exploit political grievances, and expand its recruitment pool among Ethiopian nationals.

✅ Second, cross-border security and territorial positioning: The group’s reported interest in the recapture of strategic locations in Hiiraan, including areas relatively close to the Ethiopian border, deserves examination in the broader context of its cross-border ambitions. Al-Shabaab’s 2022 incursion into Ethiopia demonstrated its willingness to exploit vulnerabilities along the frontier. Any renewed effort to consolidate positions near the border could carry implications for infiltration, mobility, and future operational planning.

✅ Third, the regional conflict landscape: Ethiopia’s complex political and security environment presents opportunities for tactical convergence among actors whose interests may overlap, even where their ideological objectives differ. It is therefore worth examining whether Al-Shabaab could seek to exploit existing or emerging relationships among armed and political actors, including elements associated with the ONLF, OLA or others.

STRATEGIC OUTLOOK

The central concern is not simply Al-Shabaab’s interest in Ethiopia’s conflict, but how the group might translate that interest into recruitment, propaganda, cross-border operations, or opportunities to divert the attention and resources of Ethiopian and regional security forces.

Al-Shabaab’s engagement with Ethiopia’s conflict should therefore be understood as a development warranting continued monitoring and rigorous intelligence assessment.

For more analysis into al-shabaab’s interest in Ethiopia conflict, stay tuned and follow @wargelinn.

#Somalia #Ethiopia #AlShabaab #RegionalSecurity #Counterterrorism #HornOfAfrica #SecurityAnalysis

[Uubaale News @CivicPulseh6nc]

🚨 BREAKING: Al-Shabab Seizes the Settlement of Hees, 30km North of Beledweyne, Following Major Assault on Somalia Army Base

Al-Shabab militants have taken control of the settlement of Hees, located just 30 kilometres north of Beledweyne in eastern Hiiraan region. The settlement had become a major military base housing large numbers of Somalia National Army soldiers, particularly those who had retreated there following the loss of Teedaan to Al-Shabab. The militants launched a heavy attack early this morning, beginning at Xaanshi Gadafar on the outskirts of Hees, reportedly with vehicle-borne explosives (VBIEDs), followed by fierce fighting. Somalia National Army forces subsequently withdrew from their positions, and the militants have officially announced their takeover of the settlement.

The capture marks another significant advance along the eastern Hiiraan road corridor towards Beledweyne, the regional capital. It follows the militants seizure of Teedaan on August 2, after two days of heavy fighting. Hees was another important military position along this corridor, which Al-Shabab has been seeking to bring under its control as it advances towards Beledweyne highway.