0xSumitGupta.eth

Co-founder- AntWak (YC W'22), Bridging Gap Between Industry & Early Professionals,
CFA L-2, FRM, Asst Prof,
Ex-Corporate Banker, Always Teacher & Learner
NMHRK

[vixhaℓ @TheVixhal]

I found out my girlfriend was lying about one guy.

For months, she kept saying he was just a friend, and honestly I believed it enough to not make it a daily issue. Not fully, but enough.

You know that weird place where something feels off, but you also don't want to become that insecure person who questions every name?

Then one night, her phone was on the table and his notification came.

“Reached home?”

That message alone was not proof of anything. People can ask that. Friends can ask that. I was still trying to be normal about it.

But then I remembered she told me she was out with her cousins.

So I asked casually, “Who dropped you?”

She said, “My cousin.”

I asked which cousin.

She paused.

That pause did more damage than the message.

After that, the story started changing as she spoke. First it was cousins. Then it was cousins and friends. Then he was there too, but only for a while.

Then it became, “Actually, he dropped me because it was late.” Then somehow I became insecure for even asking.

Bro, I was literally watching the probability update in real time. The notification changed it a little. Then the pause changed it even more.

By the time the story changed for the third time, the calculation was basically done.

That is Bayes theorem.

Bayes theorem is what happens when you start with a belief, observe new evidence, and update that belief.

Formula:
P(H | E) = (P(E | H) × P(H)) / P(E)

Where:
- H: Hypothesis
- E: Event (what you observe)
- P(H): Prior probability
- P(E): Overall probability of event
- P(E|H): Prob. of event if hypothesis was true
- P(H|E): Probability hypothesis is true given event (updated belief)

Let's take an example and solve it step by step:

Suppose your girlfriend is honest 95% of the time and lies 5% of the time. She avoids eye contact 30% of the time when she is honest and 80% of the time when she is lying.

If she avoids eye contact, find the probability that she is lying.

Step 1: Define Hypotheses
- H1: She is honest
- H2: She is lying

Step 2: Define Event
- Event (E) = She avoids eye contact

Step 3: Write Priors
- P(H1) = 0.95 (honest)
- P(H2) = 0.05 (lying)

Step 4: Write the Likelihoods

Avoids eye contact when honest
- P(E | H1) = 0.30

Avoids eye contact when lying
- P(E | H2) = 0.80

Step 5: Calculate the Total Probability

P(E) = P(E|H1)×P(H1) + P(E|H2)×P(H2)
P(E) = (0.30)(0.95) + (0.80)(0.05)
P(E) = 0.285 + 0.04
P(E) = 0.325

Step 6: Apply Bayes Theorem
- P(H2 | E) = (P(E | H2) × P(H2)) / P(E)
- P(H2 | E) = ((0.80)(0.05)) / 0.325
- P(H2 | E) = 0.123

Final Answer:
If she avoids eye contact, the probability that she is lying is 12.3%.

Congratulations, you have just learned Bayes theorem!

[0xSumitGupta.eth @sumitbsg]

@boringTinTin As per reports, they claim to have 24,000 cr AUM book for its lenders..and this is prime lending book highly sought after for lowest NPA and appetite for bigger ticket size..that piece of business in itself is highly valuable and then they have coins 😅

[0xSumitGupta.eth @sumitbsg]

@cyrussaysin @mantramugdh Bhai usko bhi bolne de

[0xSumitGupta.eth @sumitbsg]

@REDBOXINDIA Abhi tak toh FII ja raha tha..ab DII bhi jayega

[0xSumitGupta.eth @sumitbsg]

@GabbbarSingh Bro, yeh Bangalore janta hai,you can't infer a lot from their looks and their income / worth unlike Delhi..waise Delhi mein bhi hai aisa but at other end of spectrum (people may feel richer than what they actually are) Being a Del boy moved to B'lore ,it was cultural shock to me

[Dr Mouth Matters @GanKanchi]

Confessions and realities

42M, 55LPA

I am a 42-year-old man with a senior job in IT. I have a house in Chennai, a supportive wife, and two children. On paper, everything about my life looks perfect. I have achieved all the things society says a man should achieve.

In my twenties, life felt different. I had friends to spend time with. We would hang out at Marina Beach and Besant Nagar beach, watch movies at Rohini, Udayam, and Kasi theatres, and ride around Mount Road on my RX100.

In my thirties, I had colleagues to talk with over tea breaks. We would discuss apartments, onsite trips, and share random stories about life and work.

But now, in my forties, life has turned into a quiet routine. My phone rarely rings for anything personal. Most calls are about office work, bank alerts, or someone from home asking me to pick up milk on the way back.

The loneliness of a man in his forties is unusual. I am not physically alone, but I often feel like a machine.

When I enter my home, I am simply “Appa.” I am the person who pays school fees, fixes the Wi-Fi, and handles repairs. My wife is busy with her work and the kids. My children are teenagers now, living in their own worlds and their own rooms. They love me, but they mostly see me as the person who provides comfort and stability. They no longer see me as an individual.

At the office, I am the senior person. I am expected to have all the answers. I cannot tell my team that I feel tired. I cannot tell my boss that I sometimes struggle to keep up with new technologies. I must appear confident and strong, even when I quietly worry about the future.

Sometimes I drive home slowly from work just to spend a few extra minutes in the car. I listen to songs from my college days.
For those fifteen minutes, I am not a manager or a father. I am simply myself again.

I realize that I have not had a real conversation about my feelings with anyone in years.

My old friends now exist mostly as names on WhatsApp. We send “Happy Birthday” or “Congratulations” messages, but rarely talk. When we meet at weddings, our conversations revolve around our children’s grades or the cars we drive. We never talk about what we actually feel.

The hardest part is that I cannot even complain. If I tell my family that I feel lonely, they look confused and say, “But we are all here with you.”
They do not understand that a person can be surrounded by people and still feel like they are on a desert island.

Society teaches men that if they provide money and security, they have succeeded in life.
But no one teaches us how to deal with the silence that comes with it.

I have built a beautiful life for everyone around me, but sometimes it feels like there is no space left for me inside it.

And maybe… this is what life in your forties feels like.

[0xSumitGupta.eth @sumitbsg]

@AamAadmiParty I think they mean 500+ votes

[0xSumitGupta.eth @sumitbsg]

@mishrag47

[0xSumitGupta.eth @sumitbsg]

@FoxNews Hazrat Hazrat Hazrat...Gaana Bajao

[Gappistan Radio @whyteknight07]

Out of all the UPA era tweets that have been dug up, I think this one is the biggest gem

[Olly Tennis 🎾 🇬🇧 @Olly_Tennis_]

Possibly the worst take of the year 🥱

[Babu Bhaiya @Shahrcasm]

Giveaway Alert..

Two random winners who retweet and like this tweet will get these tkt of India semi Final tomorrow.

Giveaway ends at evening...

[0xSumitGupta.eth @sumitbsg]

@everestchris6 Video

[Neenu @neenu3724]

Peak detailing by Aditya dhar.

[0xSumitGupta.eth @sumitbsg]

@PrajwalTomar_ @Lovable Lovable

[0xSumitGupta.eth @sumitbsg]

@gharkekalesh Point is ki no one thought of this scenario !! No one planned for "what if something goes wrong"

[0xSumitGupta.eth @sumitbsg]

@wanneracademy Niches

[sar¹⁶🎧ིྀ @leclercsdior]

i’ve spent my whole day watching tennis 😭

[0xSumitGupta.eth @sumitbsg]

@gharkekalesh Kohli ka childhood video

[0xSumitGupta.eth @sumitbsg]

@DarkPasenger__ Psycho thriller..one of the best movie !! Available on YT