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[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨 THE ENERGY CRISIS UNFOLDING IN REAL TIME

For 3 days, traders have watched a worst-case scenario play out. Here's what's hit:

THE DISRUPTIONS:
•Strait of Hormuz traffic down 94% (1/5 of global oil flows through here)
•Qatar LNG shutdown = 1/5 of global gas supply (unprecedented in LNG history)
•Saudi Arabia's largest refinery (Ras Tanura) halted
•UAE's Fujairah terminal/refinery suspended
•Iraq halted Kurdistan oil exports (200k barrels/day)
•Major shipping lines suspended bookings to Gulf ports
•Iran banned all food exports
•EU gas prices up 93% since Friday

WHY PRICES AREN'T HIGHER (YET): Markets are betting this ends quickly.

The US shale revolution gave the world swing capacity.

China has 1+ billion barrels in storage. Saudi and UAE have pipelines that bypass Hormuz.

But there's a ticking clock. JPMorgan says if Hormuz stays effectively closed for more than 25 days, Middle East producers will have to shut in output.

THE GAS CRISIS IS WORSE: Unlike oil, gas has zero buffer.

Europe's inventories are near seasonal lows. There's "virtually zero spare LNG capacity in the world."

If this drags on, we're looking at a 2022-style bidding war between Asia and Europe.

WHO'S SCREWED:
🇵🇰 Pakistan: 99% of LNG comes from Qatar
🇮🇳 India: 50% from Qatar, officials "in a state of panic"
🇪🇺 Europe: Low inventories, high exposure, here we go again
🇨🇳 China: 30% from Qatar (but has alternatives like Russian pipeline gas and coal)

WHO'S WINNING:
🇷🇺 Russia: Oil prices soaring
🇺🇸 US: Net exporter, largely insulated from global gas shock (allies feel it first)

THE INFLATION BOMB: We just got inflation back to target after Ukraine.

US gasoline already at 3-month high (political headache for Trump ahead of midterms).

If this continues, expect emergency releases from strategic reserves.

BOTTOM LINE: One oil historian called this "a scenario capable of causing the greatest oil supply upheaval in history."

Right now, markets are betting Trump wraps this up fast.

Every day that doesn't happen, the odds of a full-blown global energy crisis increase.

Sources: Bloomberg, Tasnim, DeItaone

[Israel Info @Israel_info24]

Another country along with Iran

Kim Jong Un: 'If Iran asks, we will provide it with missiles against Israel. One missile is enough to erase it.'

[August @August20190831]

5/28，恆春東南東方425km處海域發現055驅逐艦*1、052驅逐艦*1、054護衛艦*1、901補給艦*1，判為遼寧號航母編隊成員。
附近海域暫無發現航母，等衛照下載速度正常點再延伸去搜尋吧。

[@Rupprecht_A @RupprechtDeino]

A factory-fresh J-35A in green primer was seen again supporting claims, that LRIP was initiated.

Again, there’s currently NO official confirmation yet and even more NOTHING that suggests them for being for Pakistan.

[sun @sun12344231]

@HWwei7 111

[sun @sun12344231]

@Aidenvhai 我要我要

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@xinwendiaocha 真会意淫哈哈哈哈哈哈哈，国歌哈哈哈哈哈哈国歌哈哈哈哈哈哈哈

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@kinglinzhuhui 真以为咱们怕？还是老美怕？

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@yangfan39831908 不知道的还以为孙打的是鬼子呢

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@foreignersinTW 粑粑吃饱了台湾也不是一个国家，带见手青的飞机杯给你导出幻觉了

[sun @sun12344231]

@jakobsonradical 你何尝不是只会叫呢

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@piyoloveu @KELMAND1 抛开什么事实都不知道，你说你马呢，傻狗

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@piyoloveu @KELMAND1 有检测数据不���，经典抛开事实不谈是吧，太典了

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@haOFei 话术太老了，换一个，看腻了

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@FreeEastAsia 油饼食不食

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@FrontalForce 你怎么不拿你们被英国殖民的地图来呢

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@JamieMetzl 然后呢

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@mingleili2 看来你比高层还懂，厉害厉害，

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@NiKiTa_32156 不相信还来干什么？看大熊猫啊？

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@mingleili2 你是个傻逼一样的，都不知道真假就在讲，一个黑暗中的烂蛆