SVentures

[Citrini @citrini]

JUNE 2028.

The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation.

What happened?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

https://t.co/JzzwCrbJgS

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

For quality of life, it is better to err on the side of being an optimist and wrong, rather than a pessimist and right

[U.S. Department of Commerce @CommerceGov]

Globalization has FAILED.

Secretary Lutnick at the World Economic Forum:

“The Trump Administration and I are here to make a very clear point—globalization has failed the West and the United States of America. It’s a failed policy… and it has left America behind.”

America is done exporting jobs and offshoring its future. We will no longer give in to globalization.

[Cerebras @cerebras]

OpenAI🤝Cerebras
https://t.co/KN31O9SNIC

[Melissa 🇨🇦 @MelissaLMRogers]

OMG 🤯 GDP growth in UKRAINE is higher than Canada, IMF projections are higher in Ukraine than Canada, & World Bank won’t even give Canada a percentage

All while Canada gave BILLIONS to help Ukraine build & grow 👀

This is criminal and every Canadian needs to know this info

[Alex Blania @alexblania]

last week, we released a new version of world app, and people really seem to like it so far.

this is now the most used wallet in the world!

very proud of the team and especially @tiagosada @wangandy @ptraughber & @tawandamahere

[Simon Dedic @sjdedic]

Great overview of 2025 TGEs by @mementoresearch and @ahboyash.

The takeaway is brutal: most tokens launched this year are down bad from TGE.

And not slightly down. We’re talking 60–90% drawdowns across the board. This applies to obscure launches like $SYND, $XTER or $YALA just as much as to some of the most anticipated TGEs like $BERA, $TOWNS or $XAN.

The reasons are not hard to identify:

Overinflated launch valuations, absurd sell pressure from massive exchange listing fees, and "free money" airdrops handed out to people who clicked a few buttons or posted a couple of tweets. Add to that the near-total lack of fundamentals or revenue behind many of these launches, often paired with products no one actually needs.

The combination of these factors sent tokens into free fall, with little to no organic demand underneath.

What’s even more concerning is that the few tokens showing decent performance on paper are often more illusion than reality. Some of the top performers like $ASTER, $ESPORTS or $COAI are well-known BNB Chain insider projects. Prices are propped up artificially while the vast majority of supply is tightly controlled, and wash trading creates the appearance of demand, especially on Pancake Swap and Binance Alpha.

Sure, good for those who caught these at TGE and made some money. But these projects are rarely sustainable, and they do nothing to meaningfully improve overall TGE performance.

If we want token launches to become sustainable again, several things need to change:

1) Expectations in crypto need to normalize.

The community shouldn’t expect billions in free money for low-effort participation. Founders don’t need to raise tens of millions at the seed stage. Investors shouldn’t expect 100x returns at launch. And exchanges shouldn’t think they deserve double-digit percentages of token supply just for listing an ERC-20.

2) We need to think longer-term.

It is not normal to invest in a startup and expect liquidity or meaningful returns within 1–2 years. Many token projects fail because they launch too early. Their fundamentals have no time to grow into their valuations, prices collapse, and a downward spiral begins. Trust is lost, attention moves on, and projects never recover.

3) Valuations must come back to reality.

A major driver here is tIeR oNe vCs that raised far too much capital and now feel pressured to deploy billions into early-stage startups. To fit larger checks, valuations get pushed up, markup rounds are engineered, and paper returns are manufactured. Founders often get blinded by the money and the runway, while missing the second-order effects this inevitably has on their token launch.

4) We need better ways to favor long-term supporters over extractors.

Stop allocating massive token chunks to CEXs, airdrop farmers, short-term investors, and KOLs with no long-term conviction. They will dump and move on, and recovering from that is extremely hard.

5) Stop playing games the market already understands.

Low-float, high-FDV tokenomics, wash trading, and artificial market-making strategies don’t work anymore. The space is too mature to be fooled by this.

6) Either commit fully to your token, or don’t launch one at all.

I’m very black and white on this. Stop pretending tokens have utility while all real value accrues to the equity entity. Tokens need to be treated as equity, either directly or indirectly. The founders who truly understand this tend to avoid most of the mistakes above, because they treat their token as the most precious asset they have, not as funny money printed out of thin air.

There are probably many more points to add, but this post is long enough already. If you have good additions, feel free to share them in the comments.

I hope these thoughts help, whether you’re an investor, a founder, or simply a crypto enthusiast.

If we want positive momentum to return to token launches, a lot needs to change. And the most important takeaway is simple:

It’s on us.

The faster more people realize this and stop playing short-term extraction games, the faster the space can heal. Ironically, long-term compounding would make all of us far richer than these games ever will, but too many people still think in the time horizon of a mayfly.

[World Chain @world_chain_]

At Santa's No Bot Shop, verified humans lined up to win coveted concert tickets, entries to sports events, and retail gift cards. World's proof of human ensures that people, not bots, get the things they love.

[Simon Kim @simonkim_nft]

ETHval v0.5.4 — Smarter AI, Deeper Insights
https://t.co/CanopzxSz5

With v0.5.4, ETHval's AI gets sharper. Now it doesn't just analyze — it explains why it scored that way, backed by 3 years of historical context.

Each section is now split into 3 clear perspectives: Current Status, 90-Day Trend, and Valuation Insight. Visual indicators let you grasp the analysis at a glance.

I've also added new on-chain data sources and improved data accuracy by integrating CryptoQuant's institutional-grade APIs.

Your data. Smarter AI. Clearer insights.

──────────────────
ETHval v0.5.4 Release Notes
──────────────────

🤖 AI Analysis Upgrade
• 3-Category Framework: Each section now provides Current Status, 90-Day Trend, and Valuation Insight separately.
• Visual Indicators: Color-coded gauge labels for instant comprehension.
• Historical Learning: AI references 3-year percentile data for objective, consistent scoring.
• Score Reasoning: AI now explains why it assigned each score (stored for transparency).
• Unified Scores: All 4 languages share identical scores — only English generates, others follow.

📊 New Data Sources
• L1 Daily Volume: Total daily transaction volume on Ethereum mainnet (via Dune).
• L2 Daily Volume: Aggregated daily volume across all L2 chains (via Dune).
• ETH Open Interest: Futures open interest data (via CryptoQuant).

🎯 Data Accuracy Improvements
• Exchange Reserve: Upgraded from estimation to • CryptoQuant's direct API — real exchange holdings, not guesswork.

🎨 UI/UX Refinements
• Indicator label font size increased for better readability.
• Admin panel input fields now show values in plain text.
• Improved visual hierarchy in commentary sections.

⚡ Performance
• Faster initial page load.
• Optimized data fetching pipeline.

──────────────────
AI that learns from history. Data you can trust. https://t.co/CanopzxSz5

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: November CPI inflation unexpectedly FALLS to 2.7%, below expectations of 3.1%.

Core CPI inflation FALLS to 2.6%, below expectations of 3.0%.

This marks the biggest drop in US inflation since March 2025.

Inflation was WELL below expectations in November.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Empathy has been weaponized to destroy Western civilization

[Donald Trump Jr. @DonaldJTrumpJr]

Amazing Tweet. So sad. So true.

[SVentures @sungventures]

lol this is funny!

And crypto is soooo dead, there isnt a memecoin for this 6-7 nonsense.

[Xeer @Xeer]

kids, if you think 6-7 is funny, wait til you meet 9-5 😭

[Adam Carolla @adamcarolla]

This is the greatest tweet ever

[SVentures @sungventures]

Doing some timeline cleaning:
If you are still talking about nfts, memecoins.. im unfollowing you. You are just out of touch or spamming timeline with paid promos, or super delusional at this point.. lol

[SVentures @sungventures]

This is probably one solution to divided liquidity across like 10000 coins.

Active delisting and listing for an “index” of coins. And it encourages each centralized exchanges to tailor their own index based on internal metrics.
Best indices will outlast and highlight the best.

[Flood @ThinkingUSD]

The best thing exchanges could do is delist all but 100 tokens, make it competitive to stay listed on the exchange and stop dividing the melting ice cube of retail capital across thousands of worthless assets.

[SVentures @sungventures]

Ouch lol
Hurts more when btc does this vs gold

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

🚨 TODAY: Peter Schiff says gold and silver are surging on renewed QE, arguing that Bitcoin “is not even running” and should be “put out to pasture.”

[SVentures @sungventures]

@KookCapitalLLC How about compared to 2022 bear market? can you share a 3yr or 5yr trend?

[SVentures @sungventures]

We arent going any where until this dude is wiped

[Arkham @arkham]

UPDATE: Machi has just been liquidated for $15M of $ETH.

He has also closed his longs on HYPE.

He is down to his last $230K on Hyperliquid. Will Machi Big Brother make it out of this one?

[Eric Berger @SciGuySpace]

Here's why I think SpaceX is going public soon.

https://t.co/KEZIjhEsTH