$RKLB NASA’s ~$700M Mars Telecommunications Network (MTN) procurement has a FY2026 obligation deadline: the $700M must be obligated by Sept. 30, 2026, ahead of the planned Oct. 1, 2026 contract effective date.
The Mars Telecommunications Orbiter is a commercially procured Mars relay satellite with an explicitly defined purpose:
- Provide continuous, high-bandwidth communications at Mars
- Support future Mars missions, Mars Sample Return (MSR), and eventually, human missions
- ~$700M fixed-price contract
- Must be awarded by end of FY2026
- Target launch: 2028 Mars window
Not everyone can bid.
Only companies that worked on MSR studies can bid:
1. SpaceX
2. Northrop Grumman
3. Quantum Space
4. Lockheed Martin
5. Aerojet Rocketdyne
6. Rocket Lab
7. Blue Origin
$RKLB is proposing: A dedicated Mars relay satellite in a geosynchronous orbit (~17,000 km) that provides near-continuous coverage (big upgrade vs current orbiters)
RKLB is credible because it:
- Already won a NASA study contract for Mars communications architecture
Strong end-to-end stack:
- Satellite bus (Photon)
- Deep space experience (CAPSTONE, Venus mission)
- Launch (Electron / Neutron(soon))
Their pitch is essentially:
“We can do this cheaper, faster, fully integrated.”
My bet is that $RKLB is more likely to win:
First, only the 7 companies qualify as per the following law, since only they received the funding for the MSR design study:
(A)(iii)(I) - NASA-funded MSR design study funding in FY2024 and/or FY2025
But failure to qualify for the following point makes the company INELIGIBLE for MTO:
(A)(iii)(II) - proposed a separate, independently launched Mars telecommunication orbiter supporting an end-to-end Mars sample return mission;
The following 5 companies did not propose a separate MTO in the MSR study, which makes them INELIGIBLE for MTO according to the law:
1. SpaceX
2. Northrop Grumman
3. Quantum Space
4. Lockheed Martin
5. Aerojet Rocketdyne
Now, we are only left with Rocket Lab and Blue Origin who qualify.
Now:
(A)(i) says:... is capable of providing robust, continuous communications for a Mars sample return mission, and future Mars surface, orbital, and human exploration missions
Both Rocket Lab and Blue Origin are capable of doing that.
(B) which shall be delivered to the Administration not later than December 31, 2028.
If the timeline is weighted significantly, Rocket Lab is the current industry leader in speed-to-Mars. They designed and built the ESCAPADE spacecraft in under 4 years, while Blue Origin has a history of development delays. Although they claim readiness for 2028 using the production-ready Blue Ring, they have less “on-orbit” Mars heritage than Rocket Lab.
(1) - ... using a competitively bid, firm fixed-price contract with a United States commercial provider ...
Rocket Lab has experience with cost-plus and fixed-price contracts, while firm fixed-price deep-space delivery contracts are not yet in Blue Origin’s track record
I think Blue Origin only has an edge on their Blue Origin Ring against Rocket Lab’s Photon in size and capabilities, while Rocket Lab has an edge over Blue Origin in price and timeline.
That begs the question: what is more important? And does MTO even ‘need’ a bigger bus than Photon or Explorer?
Both will compete head-to-head, but I am leaning towards $RKLB because of their edge over fixed price and delivery time with proven execution history.
Rocket Lab Robotics will be supporting @uarizona's EMILIA-3D lunar instrument with a single axis instrument gimbal to allow the payload camera (provided by @NAU) to generate 3D thermal models of the lunar terrain.
The gimbal is a completely integrated avionic and scan system qualified to operate within the lunar environment and resilient to exposure to the lunar regolith.
More details: https://t.co/3ZcHRTSqXh
Here's something that'll blow your mind about long duration options.
I sold a 2 year put. Collected a huge premium up front.
4 months later, the market ran, the contract collapsed in value, & I closed it at 75% profit.
75% of the money... in 17% of the time of the contract.
Everyone thinks long duration means locked up for years. It doesn't.
It means a FAT premium up front to reinvest when the company is compelling & the option to close it whenever it makes sense.
Compare that to a weekly seller. 52 tiny paychecks, selling puts when it's not compelling... forcing trades.
I made one decision. Most make 52.
Long duration isn't slower. It's more money for less work with more room to be wrong.
$RKLB
Very late to the discussion here, but figured I'd add my two cents.
While Mars and ISAM have been rightfully cited as applications of Motiv's robotic arms, what's gotten less attention is that, like most space technologies, these arms are inherently dual-use.
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Securing access to space for all-weather 24/7 Earth imaging 🌏📸
@QPS_Inc has signed for another 3x Electron launches to continue deploying their QPS constellation - their third multi-launch booking on Electron in less than a year.
More details: https://t.co/5QMgE2bWDw
🚨 BREAKING: FASTER ROCKET LAUNCHES ARE COMING 🚀
Faster approvals. Less red tape. Zero compromise on safety.
@USDOT and @FAANews are supercharging American spaceflight and sharpening our competitive edge to keep our aerospace industry moving forward.
The future of space is built in the USA 🇺🇸
Missile defense from wherever it's needed 🚀❄️
We're officially headed to Alaska to establish our fourth launch complex to support our largest launch contract yet: $266M for up to 18 suborbital launches for missile defense with the Space Force's @USSF_SSC
Archimedes second stage engine full duration burn - complete ✅ (and what a thing of beauty).
The AVac (Archimedes Vacuum) engine produces 1.2x lbf of its Stage 1 variant and stands ~2.5m taller thanks to its extended nozzle optimized for the vacuum conditions of space.
Recent AVac testing included a stub skirt for the nozzle. Since full length vacuum nozzles at ground level risk flow separation and instability, stub skirts are used to anchor our engineers' analysis for how the engine will perform with the full nozzle in vacuum conditions - all critical preparation for Neutron's first flight.
🚨BREAKING: China now officially the THIRD organization in the world to recover an orbital booster �� after SpaceX and Blue Origin
Today CALT’s Long March 10B flew its first mission and recovered its booster using a wire-net capture system
>caught on the FIRST attempt
12 years ago China had never flown a cryogenic rocket... Now China has its first reusable rocket
CFO of $KRKNF has a pretty good track record on placing his buys.
He just bought 249k of shares this week. Insiders sell for many reasons, they buy for only one.
This is the man who has the best visibility into the companies financials and he just loaded the boat… JS NFA
Jeff Bezos Blue Origin is reportedly raising outside capital for the first time seeking $10B at a $130B pre-money valuation.
This is very bullish for $RKLB which still trades around a $48B market cap as one of the few pure-play space infrastructure names.
The deal would give Rocket Lab control over a satellite fleet and access to wireless resources it could use to compete with SpaceX. https://t.co/rKJVC1pEA0