DVD

L/S equity HF Mgr. | Macroeconomics | Special Situation Investor | Nothing written by this account is financial advice, do your own research

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

$ASTS $VOD
🧵Vodafone Investment Thesis
Current Price (2H FY26): $13
FY28 PT: ~$23
The Thesis in Brief: Vodafone has successfully transitioned from a distressed conglomerate into a disciplined, growth-focused connectivity platform. The market is currently pricing VOD on backwards-looking metrics; fixated on the painful German MDU transition and historical debt bloat. This creates a dislocation. This view identifies three mispriced levers that will drive a re-rating in FY27 and continued multiple expansion beyond:
Germany Turns the Corner: The operational drag from the TV Law change is fully priced in. FY27 represents the first clean year of EBITDA growth in the core German market.
The "SatCo" Option: The joint venture with AST SpaceMobile is currently valued at zero by consensus. We view it as a high-margin infrastructure monopoly for European Direct-to-Device (D2D) connectivity, worth ~$2.00/share alone on FY28 EBITDA estimates discounted backwards.
Capital Discipline as a Floor: The massive share buyback program (reducing float by ~15% vs. FY24) provides a mechanical floor to the stock price, while structurally lowering the dividend burden.

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

@SingularityRes Na she replied with the 😥

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

$NVDA
You wouldn’t oust Jensen without a transition plan unless you found something super negative related to the honeypot situation that you have no choice but to get rid of him immediately

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

She sure is far more attractive than the spy chick…

[PhotonBull @PhotonBull]

At least she's not a Chinese spy this time I guess

$NVDA

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

Do you know how big of a psyop this is.

[tradfi news @tradfi]

*NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO JENSEN HUANG HAD AFFAIR WITH SUBORDINATE VP: NYT

*HUANG'S ALLEGED RELATIONSHIP WAS WITH NVIDIA (NVDA) HEALTH CARE VP KIMBERLY POWELL

*HUANG HUNG UP ON NYT INQUIRY; NVIDIA (NVDA) DECLINED COMMENT

$NVDA

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

@Jason It’s as simple as, do you own assets or not. Forget income levels.

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

@thekriskay Maybe give it a year and we’ll see

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

Well.. the models are the ones who recursively self improve and will likely continue to optimize how they use capacity that will continue to get built up. If you have a system that is constantly 24/7 looking to self improve and integrate across every system known to man, that requires far far more resources than have been built today, and that will be be built over the next couple of years… the unlock of the existing applications and applications of tomorrow that compute will power is the exogenous demand driver that you’re not taking into account when using a static example of a railroad.

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

@InvestorVideos @_LEAPOptionsCP_ To play devils advocate, their customers are hyperscalers with $100s of billions on their balance sheets… yea I think it can last until rates drop in the future and more debt can be raised.

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

@tylerpalmer You done watching another man’s pocket?

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

@_JT_Marlin Cuz when it IPOd bunch of larps said it was overvalued. Instead it’s probably the most fairly valued stock in the market today

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

It’ll be hilarious to see $spcx stock double over the next year and the rest of the market remain bearish / downtrend

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

@MarkHubbard33 Hope you understand that the FCC will re auction that L band when it becomes clear in 2-3 years that iridium’s constellation is obsolete.

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

$ASTS
If AST pulls off their own rocket, $RKLB is pretty fucked. Not because AST will be launching other companies payloads, but because their comsat business will obliterate Iridium to pieces. Which could send Rocket Lab towards bankruptcy

(they’d take on a ton of debt to try** to build better satellites than AST, which is likely not possible)

[Rocket House @rocket__house]

$RKLB $ASTS

PETER BECK ON ASTS DEVELOPING ITS OWN ROCKET

"In many respects, we're rooting for everybody because even when we bring Neutron to market, it's not going to satisfy the demand that's required"

"You know, and also 50% of Neutron is for everybody else and 50% is for us"

"I think we have always followed the thesis that the large space companies of the future are going to have their ability to launch their own stuff"

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

When’s the last time you’ve seen a space for space’s sake business succeed? They all are in competition. The space-based comms market is an extension and an enabler to terrestrial; and the terrestrial comms market is constrained to a handful of big $ buckets. Direct to device is where iridium competes, albeit really shitty direct to device is what their capable of. When the holistic solutions arrives to market, the $ spent on iridium’s solution shifts to the best solution. It’s a tale as old as time. You should stop sniffing Peter becks crotch and study the market for yourself and you’ll probably come to the same conclusion unless you’re missing neurons

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

@ItsRealAlec 10/10 in appearance? Wtf type of crack are people smoking these days

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

@1Meetch

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

$RKLB
This is one is easy to predict… shitty business, handicapped financial flexibility… no catalysts on the horizon. Dump it 🚽

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

$RKLB
Who’s ready for some disappointments 🍿

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

@BeachHouseSoon @Defiantclient2 What?

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

$RKLB
Who’s ready for some disappointments 🍿

[DVD @deepvaluedude]

Everyone’s talking about a $SPCX takeover of TMUS
I think order of operations are spacex x Tesla merger. Combined entity = $3-4 trillion.
They issue $400B of equity = 10% dilution to acquire TMUS.