The CIA and MI6 predicted Russia's war with Ukraine, but they weren’t believed
Since late 2021, the U.S. and the U.K. had been urging Ukraine and European countries about the inevitability of war, The Guardian reports.
The intelligence agencies of the two countries saw tens of thousands of Russian soldiers at the border in satellite images, an increase in pro-Russian groups in Ukraine, and intercepted military messages hinting at an impending invasion.
In Paris, Berlin, and Kyiv, many believed the concentration of Russian troops at the border was a bluff, not preparation for an invasion.
For many European intelligence services, the psychological barrier was the belief that Putin was a rational actor and it seemed unlikely that he would take such a risky step.
In the first half of January, the Americans received more detailed information: Russian forces were supposed to attack Ukraine from several directions, including from Belarus, with a landing in Hostomel near Kyiv to seize the capital, as well as a plan to assassinate Zelensky.
The CIA director urgently flew to Kyiv to deliver this information, but Zelensky ignored the warnings.
The President of Ukraine was afraid that panic would collapse the economy. Deep down, he didn’t believe the Americans. This was partly because the West was not speaking with one voice.
"The Brits and Americans said the war was inevitable, while the French and Germans said, 'Don’t listen to them, it’s nonsense,'" said one senior Ukrainian official.
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Initial reports of possible drone sightings in the airspace around Vilnius Čiurlionis International Airport and near the border between Lithuania and Belarus.