SuperDaniel｜超级个体

Crypto enthusiast since 2021｜Marketing Manager ｜走向超级个体之路｜Sharing insights on AI, Perp DEX, and the Future of trading

[SuperDaniel｜超级个体 @superdanielkk]

“自我托管是美国的基础价值观。DeFi，是经济自由、产权保护与开放创新的延伸。”

意思很明确了——DeFi 随便搞，出事我豁免。

这是监管层对 DeFi 最明确的一次态度松动。

这意味着什么？

意味着传统金融的监管模型，开始为链上结构预留位置。DeFi 不再只是合规死角，而有机会成为现有金融制度内制度内的合规组件的一部分。

监管松口，是技术成熟的结果，也是利益结构重组的起点。

当监管为链上结构让出空间，真正重要的问题将变为：

｜谁拥有最强的底层资产？
｜谁掌握结构的控制权？

大胆思考🤔

[SuperDaniel｜超级个体 @superdanielkk]

@jamel_Ol1v This scammer promised to buy my account but never sent the payment. Total fraudster—don’t trust him at all!

[SuperDaniel｜超级个体 @superdanielkk]

Openclaw在国内的传播路径，越发邪教化了🤣

龙虾大法好！！！

[SuperDaniel｜超级个体 @superdanielkk]

@0xphilo openclawd和mcp还是有本质上的区别的= =

[Yogi @Houseofyogi]

You Had 47 Years of Diplomacy With Iran. Here's What It Got You.

Mahsa Amini was 22 years old. Arrested by Iran's morality police because her headscarf was too loose. She died in custody three days later. They beat her to death. Over a piece of fabric.

Her death set off the biggest protests Iran had seen in a generation. The regime's answer? Kill them. Over 500 dead.

They shot a 16-year-old girl named Nika Shakarami in the street. Then snatched her body and tried to bury her in secret before her family could find her.

Amirhesam Khodayarifard was 20 years old. Walked into a protest because his country was starving. He was chanting. Peacefully. A government agent shot him in the head.

This is who they are. This is who they've always been.

January 8th and 9th, 2026. The Islamic Republic of Iran executed the largest massacre of civilians in its modern history.

Snipers on rooftops firing into crowds. Targeting heads and chests. Dragging protesters into prisons. Torturing them. Raping them. Returning women's bodies with organs removed to destroy the evidence.

~36,000 dead. In days.

A former UN prosecutor who helped draft the Srebrenica genocide indictment said Iran killed twice as many in half the time.

He called it an extermination.

Where were the marches? Where was Ilhan Omar? Where was Rashida Tlaib? Where was Mamdani?

Nowhere.

But today, after we attack the regime that did this… NOW they want "diplomacy." NOW it's "illegal."

What country do you stand for?

In 1979 they stormed our embassy. Held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days.

In 1983 they bombed our Marine barracks in Beirut. 241 Americans crushed to death in their sleep.

Khobar Towers. 19 more Americans dead.

2003 to 2011. They supplied the bombs that killed 600+ American soldiers in Iraq.

They built Hezbollah. Funded Hamas. Armed the Houthis. Spent a billion dollars a year on terrorism.

Orchestrated October 7th.

Forty-seven years. The single greatest engine of death in the Middle East. And through all of it we kept talking and praying.

In 2002, Iran's own dissidents blew the whistle. Iran had been building nuclear weapons underground. For 17 years. Hidden from the world.

Not the CIA. Not the UN. Dissidents.

It took 13 years to get a deal. Keep enrichment at civilian grade. Keep the stockpile under 300 kilograms. Let inspectors in.

They agreed. Then broke every provision. From 300 kilograms to over 9,000. They ripped the cameras off the walls. By late 2024 they could build 5 to 6 bombs in under two weeks.

France, Germany, and the UK, not neocons, no war hawks, said Iran had a stockpile with "no credible civilian justification."

Two days before the strikes we sat with them in Muscat. Stop enriching. Stop the missiles. Stop funding terrorists. They said no. To all three.

You don't negotiate with someone loading a gun under the table. The Tooth Fairy isn't real. And neither was Iran's willingness to negotiate. Every year of "diplomacy" was another year closer to the bomb. That was always the plan.

This isn't about Democrat or Republican. By the laws of game theory, someone was going to have to confront Iran.

A regime that kills 36,000 of its own people doesn't stop because you ask nicely. A country enriching to weapons grade while funding terrorism on six continents doesn't come to the table in good faith.

Any president. Any party. This moment was always coming.

Spare me the "international law" lecture. You don't get to hide behind rules you've spent five decades burning to the ground.

You want to know what's illegal? Beating a 22-year-old woman to death over a headscarf. Shooting children from rooftops. Torturing women in prison. Removing organs from corpses. Building nuclear weapons while shaking hands with diplomats.

That's what's illegal.

Ilhan Omar. The day before a military operation she signaled the timing of a strike to a foreign adversary. That's not dissent. That is treason.

Iranians responded: "We don't care about Ramadan. We are waiting for the US attack to overthrow your friend the Ayatollah."

Listen to them. For once in your life.

The Iranian people are dancing in the streets. They waited 47 years for someone to act.

If not now, when? When they have the bomb? When it's too late?

It was now or never. And we chose now.

Diplomacy didn't fail. Diplomacy was the lie Iran told you while they built the bomb.

And you believed it. Every. Single. Time.

[SuperDaniel｜超级个体 @superdanielkk]

Deep Research removed from ChatGPT desktop app
Educational Purpose Only

Deep Research feature appears to be removed from the ChatGPT desktop app, atleast on Mac. telescope icon is gone and it is nowhere to be found (Still works in ios and web though).

Screenshot with deep research icon still live on https://t.co/vX30fQzIpp

No mention in release notes, no official announcement.

whats up? @OpenAI

[Yangyi @yangyi]

有用户在群里问：
牛马AI和其他IDE有什么区别？

我觉得这是个很好的问题，如果谈论一个点，我认为牛马AI最大的不同，是它是为了一人公司而设计的
所有的功能，都围绕为了帮助人们打造高效个体而展开

各类IDE是为了开发人员设计的，所以看起来各种terminal复杂的东西都在那里，你可能不知所措，牛马AI更希望简化这些复杂，我们也在努力尝试中

牛马AI能做长期计划，其他IDE应该不行
牛马AI有强大的MD编辑器且与社媒打通，其他IDE靠插件
牛马AI自动生成每日回顾来指导个人迭代，其他IDE不行
牛马AI可以自定义你的很多工作流，其他IDE捆绑自由
牛马AI从不触碰用户隐私数据，其他IDE默默上传云端

我一直说，让AI做牛做马，让我们成为牛人
如果你希望在新时代掌控AI团队，你就应该选择牛马AI而不是其他IDE

[SuperDaniel｜超级个体 @superdanielkk]

@AutismCapital Don’t rush—next tweet he’ll post an AT Field chart and the Eva-01 contract address.

[SuperDaniel｜超级个体 @superdanielkk]

一个无需解释的主流符号人物愿意公开绑定，这无疑是任何 Crypto 项目真正出圈的标志

这就有种库里当时买猴子头像的感觉，以后不需要解释 NFT 是什么，预测市场是什么

这个东西，已经不是币圈玩具了

[SuperDaniel｜超级个体 @superdanielkk]

@AIW3_official 这个动画很帅

[SuperDaniel｜超级个体 @superdanielkk]

@0xmagnolia 好喜欢这段话❤️

[SuperDaniel｜超级个体 @superdanielkk]

@EvanCrypto17 what

[SuperDaniel｜超级个体 @superdanielkk]

投资的钱就当作已经“消失”了——所以只能投资你可以承受损失的资金。不要过度投资，不要情绪化投资或交易。建立你的投资逻辑，培养坚韧的心态（避免恐慌性抛售）。
不要做傻事，比如围绕 AIDogecoinNFTclubwifhat 之类的东西构建 5-10 年的投资计划，拜托了。

[Picolas Cage @Picolas_Caged]

The best advice you won't read on a Sunday:

Some thoughts on the market and how to make money from it/navigate it. (long Sunday reading)

The market has changed a lot over the last 2 years, it's matured over time and found more institutional bid and adoption.

1) As a retail small fish, you're probably not going to make life changing amounts of money in Bitcoin. I just don't think there's really that much aggressive upside to be had. It's too big as an asset now. I bought BTC @ 6k, I could've realised that as a 20x from 2018.

A 20x from here? $1.8M - that's going to take much longer than 8 years IMO.

I think it would be more appropriate to view Bitcoin for retail as a store of value with constant bid. The downside of this is you can't just buy 'the safest' asset in crypto i.e. rank number 1 and make life changing retail returns with 4 figures.

The upside of this is when I was in the markets back in the day, holding Bitcoin was torture. March 2020? 40% drop in a day. Imagine Bitcoin dropping to $54k in ONE day. It was so hard to stay exposed to crypto without painful volatility.

So the good news is (tempting fate here a little) it's very unlikely Bitcoin would drop that much in a day - maybe 1 week - but that gives you lots of time to adjust and rethink your strategy.

2) Because of point number 1, it's harder to make $ from crypto, you've got to extend down the risk curve. This means altcoins, or more recently, memecoins. Memecoins were this cycles altcoins - the memecoin mania was the alt season IMO.

The problem with memes is they definitionally weren't worth believing in or holding, so they completed their infamous rollercoaster pattern much more quickly.

The proliferation of memes + the inability to create huge wealth with Bitcoin has created short terminism mindsets within retail + young people.

I think this short terminism has been exacerbated for Gen Z or younger by the proliferation of high dopamine culture. Tik Tok, youtube shorts, instagram reels - modern gaming, everything - it's all a dopamine rush.

Taking that dopamine rush mentality and applying it to investing/trading = 99% of people getting rekt - and they did, memes rekt most people.

Popular coins such as ETH + SOL also didn't perform well, unless you were able to catch them in the depths of the bear market so these factors really pushed people into the 'get rich quick' way of thinking.

3) Get rich quick in crypto used to exist, now it probably doesn't. So as I've explained, you used to be able to get rich quick in crypto by trading the majors like BTC or ETH - but now with institutional adoption that's kinda off the table. I've explained the good and bad side of that and what it inevitably lead to (short terminism, instant gratification, gambling over investing, aping etc.)

Now let's talk about what to actually do about it. Well, as a boring old unc, I'm here to tell you that getting rich slowly over the next 5-10 years is totally worthwhile.

For reference, being rich is not having 5M+ and living on yachts, being rich is not suffering from government tyranny, it's having more free time to pursue hobbies + interests on earth, spending quality time with friends, wife or children because you're not up to your eyeballs in stress from financial worry - that is actually being rich.

Like having a small mortgage or something - these things palpably change your life for the better. Don't get sucked into all this 'rolex and fancy sports cars' BS - that's shit designed to keep you poor and part of the system. You've very much still in the matrix if you think owning luxury cars + watches + materialistic things are the key to happiness. (CC: Tate bros)

Enough preaching, let's talk actionables.

> Laddering in: Yes Bitcoin is less volatile, but it's still volatile, be patient, check sentiment, wait for someone to blow up and ladder in your buys - I'm not saying time bottoms, that's too hard and risky. I'm saying be patient, have some cash on hand and deploy more cash the lower it goes in a laddered approach.

> DCA (dollar cost average): Pick a number you can afford every month, say it's $250 - buy that much Bitcoin every month (62.5 every week will be better)

It's a boring strategy but you're effectively always buying the lows and as Bitcoin moves up, you don't even need an ATH to make good returns. Plus, as we discussed, Bitcoin is pretty much a cert for being around 10 years from now, so holding it as an asset is going to be much easier - this is what Cobie meant when he said the easy road is 100k-250k btw.

> Farm airdrops: yeah they've dropped off, but they'll still be around here and there. It's free money, just take some off the table to pay the taxman.

> Learn about crypto and keep researching in your spare time - use this knowledge to build your account. Once your account is built up, look for InfoFi deals (if it's still around) or KOL deals for respectable and reputable projects - don't promote trash to get ahead, it's unethical and it will damage your brand in the long run. Your friends are not exit liquidity.

> Don't quit your job. Can't express this enough. Investing is like a roller coaster - you can't get off until the ride's finished. If your money is in a long term multi year investment (like ETH or BTC) - you can't pull it out half way through because you need the money.

Money you invest is gone - so only invest money you can afford to lose. Don't over invest, don't invest/trade emotionally. Build your investment thesis and build stoicism (so you don't panic sell) and don't be a dummy, I mean build a 5-10 year investment thesis about BTC or ETH not about AIDogecoinNFTclubwifhat or something FFS.

> Save your money, be frugal. If you're using newly acquired money to buy flash things you're doing this:

'We buy things we don't need, with money we don't have, to impress people we don't like'

'Oh but I do have the money', trust me bro, you don't, you're gunna need that money down the line, I'm 36, trust me, you'll need it. Life is expensive. really expensive - especially if you have dependents.

Most young men buy flashy things to impress girls or peers because they're insecure, which is totally understandable, I've been that age, it sucks, it's not easy - but it's not acceptable.

Best thing I ever did to combat this issue when I was younger was get jacked. I leveraged the fact I had high testosterone at that age and just got to work. This meant I always felt confident and/or superior entering a room because I was always jacked and in shape - I didn't need a watch with a fancy name on it to prove something. My body did that for me. I also didn't need fancy clothes. You wear a $10k shirt and I'll still looked better than you in a T-shirt because it hugs my body and shows my athletic outline.

Anyway, just my 2 cents and my opinion, some may disagree and that's fine. I've said enough, I could go on but I'll leave it there.

I hope this helps someone and there's an ounce of wisdom in it for someone. Any questions, my DM's are always open - or fire off in the comments so everyone can benefit and ofc happy Sunday.

[戈多Godot @GodotSancho]

最近看到很多关于 @monad $MON 与公链护城河的讨论。作为 L2 的贡献者，真心感觉所谓的「构建生态」，已经被证伪了🥲

如果你从头搭建好了一条公链或者 L2，抱着完全赤诚的心，想建设好项目，那首先要考虑用户和链上资金从哪来。

当你四处求合作，会发现没有人搭理，甚至付费找 KOL 推广都会被拒绝。

这时你明白，大家最基本的需求，是确信你不会跑路，而不是关心你的公链性能和技术。你需要强力的 VC 融资来做品牌背书。

问题是，VC 投资看什么，你得有名校和大厂背景，最好还得有密码学背景，或者拥有密码学背景的合伙人。

假设你刚好都具备，也找到了密码学背景合伙人，顺利融到了资。这时，会有一小部分人顺着融资新闻尝试在你链上撸毛，KOL 也来找你询问合作机会。

然后就会面临一个问题，用户怎么把钱转到你的链上。

如果是公链，在没发币的情况下，只能靠测试网领水。

如果是 L2，要去找跨链桥合作，多数跨链桥都是池对池跨链，所以能到你链上的资金类型非常有限，只会局限在 USDT、USDC 这俩稳定币，和 ETH 及其 LST 资产。

当然资产数量不会太庞大，因为大家还是有点担心你会跑路。

而且最关键问题是，如果链上没有原生 USDT、USDC，那你链上的这俩代币，其实是锁仓在跨链桥的 USDT、USDC 衍生的，一旦跨链桥出现问题，你没有办法为用户兑付资产。

去找 Tether 和 Circle 聊合作？基本费用至少大几百万起步，还是算了吧。

好了，然后你链上的 DeFi 流动性局限在 USDT-USDC 交易对和 ETH-wstETH 交易对，毫无意义可言。

依靠跨链桥来到你链上的资产明显不足，流动性的中心是交易所，要是交易所能开放你的公链提币会是很大帮忙。

然后会发现绝大多数交易所上币是要收费的，最大的那家不收费，但是要对他们有价值。恭喜你，拿到 KPI 了。

TVL 怎么办？只能一家一家找机构、BD 巨鲸和大户，承诺收益。等发币了，用代币补足对方贡献 TVL 的 APY。

链上活跃呢？已经成熟的大 DeFi 项目不会理你，除非你能承诺给于巨大的流动性，也就是部署至少千万美元或者过亿美元的 TVL 到该项目，他们才会考虑在你链上部署。否则，深度不够，没人用，人家部署了也没有意义。

GameFi、NFT？基本已经死了。

来找你的项目，基本都是冲着 Grant 资助来的，随便抄一个现有项目，部署在你链上，等你发币问你要 Grant，拿到代币就套现，然后多链部署，寻找下一个公链或 L2。

就算他们是真心想在你链上部署，那人家也不会局限在你一条链上。因为人家也要市值。也需要扩展用户群体与市场规模，多链部署是最佳策略。

MEME 在多数人眼里是一个好方式，很多人觉得拉盘几个 MEME，链就能搞得定。但实际情况是，MEME 不能自己发，毕竟很多国家的监管不是吃素的。

其次，你也不能临时招聘一个做市团队，这也是成本。找第三方 MEME 发行团队合作？一开始几个代币可能还稳得住，前提是大户不止盈、不套现。

一旦新增用户变少，实际买盘不足，大户套现，MEME 就会在更低的价格接盘，盘面大阴线越来越多。

高频交易者的加入会让情况变得更糟，他们会拉高 Gas，狙击 MM 还来不及撤销的挂单。于是 MM 只能拉宽买一卖一间距，用户交易滑点越来越大。价格波动也就更猛烈。

慢慢地用户持仓时间越来越短，舔一口就跑。MM 维持价格的时间也只能越来越短。

不断博弈的结果就是比谁跑得快。最后，终于谁都不用跑了。

如果你最后侥幸达到了 KPI，终于要上币了。有个问题需要解决，VC 的利益你要不要保证？给你贡献 TVL 的巨鲸和大户呢？生态项目的 Grant 呢？MM 的流动性配资，交易所的上币空投、Stake 奖励，以及给用户的空投，还有团队。这里面你保住谁的利益，又该牺牲谁的利益呢？

最终你上币成功了，但交易所还是只会开放你的本币在链上的充提，最多加个 ETH。

Tether 和 Circle 依然收费大几百万到千万美元，链上就没有原生的 U，交易所没法开启基于你的链的 U 的充提，DeFi 巨鲸是不会相信跨链桥的安全性的，不会将大额资金跨链过来。

用户参与你链上活动，需要提你的本币，然后到链上再卖成 ETH 或者 U，其中的磨损本身就是门槛。

哦对了，没有原生 U，也就别指望会有 RWA 来部署了。甚至你的预言机，都用不了 Chainlink，因为他家收费也超级贵。

最后会发现，发行一条通用链来构建生态，是一个伪命题。

这其实就是一场巨大的「皇帝的新衣」，买盘也不是基于你的基本面，而是阴谋论，是感觉你背后有某某某坐庄，某某某支持。

你会发现自己链上的资金，最终还是会回归 ETH 和 SOL，可能还有 Base，这些链的马太效应已经非常明显了。

交易所开放的资产充提支持、链上已有资产流动性、DEX 的资金和交易滑点、DeFi 间规模和联动效应、DeFi 协议的种类和可组合性、现货合约期权等等不同交易类型、仓位能否对冲、能否构建债券产品、借贷协议的清算安全性，甚至是用户的交易习惯、用户已经形成的固定印象和路径依赖等等等等，全部都是这些成功公链的护城河。

所以，又回到那个为什么，用户为什么一定要用你的链，生态协议为什么一定要基于你的链部署？重要的不是技术本身，而是独特性。

这个独特性必须对交易和收益，这两大场景有帮助。而且得是共识层面的帮助，就像 Hyperliquid 撤单优先共识排序利于 MM 提供流动性，或者是 Solana 正在开发的 ACE 应用控制执行。

其实写到这里，我已经表达完了。

最后的最后，想说所以 Manta 孵化的项目，不会强制让其部署在 Manta 链上，而是可以自由选择觉得适合自己的链，比如 superfortune 在 BNB Chain 上，https://t.co/HZ6EjXHGwN 在 Solana 上等等。但他们的部分收入，需要回购 MANTA 。

以上。

[皓樂芒 @howlemont]

为什么大家都在说比特币要被砸到75,000 美元去，因为很多人盯着那条价格线，说那是Strategy（前MicroStrategy）的“爆仓线”。

仿佛比特币只要砸到7.5 万，Saylor 明天就得开清仓大会。

这很符合散户对“庄家崩盘”的想象，听上去刺激也很好转发。只是有一个小问题，把一家上市公司的资产负债表，当成了赌徒的合约账户。

Strategy 不是一个在交易所开100 倍杠杆的赌徒，它没有那种价格一到就被系统强制平仓的Margin Call。

无论是早期的可转债，还是后来发行的票息高达 11.75% 的永续优先股，债权人都无权因为比特币跌了就冲进来扣押资产。只要利息照付，即便币价腰斩，那些比特币依然稳稳地躺在冷钱包里。

所以，如果大家在等那个“价格一破，万币齐抛”的崩盘瞬间，那么大概率会失望。

那条线就只是散户情绪给自己画的一条心理刻度线而已。

根据摆在桌面上的数字，

截至 2025 年 11 月中旬，Strategy 手里有 649,870 枚比特币，累计成本大约 483.7 亿美元，平均成本 74,433 美元一枚。

所以市场口口相传的“7.5 万生死线”，其实是对 74,433 这个成本价的粗糙记忆。

这仅仅意味着，在这个价位上，公司那一庞大的比特币资产在账面上刚刚回本。不是爆仓线，甚至不是警戒线。

还有一个常见的误区是担心 MSTR 股价跌破其持有的比特币价值。 实际上，这是 Saylor 最乐意看到的局面。

Strategy 的本质是一个具备融资功能的比特币杠杆基金。 当股价跌破 NAV（每股持有的比特币净值）时，市场会出现显性的结构性套利空间。 这时候，公司回购股票是数学上绝对正确的选择，用0.9 元买回价值 1 元的资产，直接增厚了剩余股东的含币量。 2022 年熊市时，他们就是这么干的。只要融资窗口还没彻底关死，这种折价往往是短期且会被迅速填平的。

现实里的爆仓，可不看你回本没有。

真正理解这个概念要看三张不同的表，资产负债表、利润表，还有一张更隐蔽的“制度环境表”。

第一张是很多人最关心的那张资产负债表，有没有被 BTC 抵押出来的高杠杆贷款，会不会被价格一砸就强平。

答案很简单。以前有过一次。Silvergate 银行曾经借过一笔2.05 亿美元的 BTC 抵押贷款，最多时抵押了三万多枚币。那笔贷款在 2023 年就被 Strategy 提前还清了，抵押的币全部回到自己兜里。

此后公司的主要融资工具，是无抵押的可转债和永续优先股。没有LTV，没有质押仓，也没有期货式的“价格一到就自动清算”。

从契约结构上看，那种合约账户式的“爆仓线”压根不存在。

第二张是利润表。也就是“账面很好看，现实中要不要掏现金”的那张。

很多人印象还停留在“比特币当无形资产，只能减值不回转”的老故事。

那套规则在 2024 年之前确实折磨了Strategy 很久，把所有跌出来的痛都记到报表上，却不允许涨回来时冲回利润。

但从 2025 年开始，故事已经改写。

FASB 的新规生效，Strategy采用将比特币改为按公允价值计量，每个季度的涨跌都要实打实地进当期损益。
好处是投资者终于能在报表上看到更接近真实的资产变动。

坏处同样明显，盈利波动被成倍放大，数字资产涨得越凶，还有就是未来可能面对的税基也越高。

可以把这张表理解成一个信号灯。它不会直接逼公司今天卖出BTC，却在背后悄悄改变监管、税务、评级机构怎么看待这堆资产。

某个时点之后，比特币的“浮盈”不再只是市值曲线上的绿色阴影，而可能变成企业最低税里的一个冷冰冰数字。

第三张是暗表，是被很多人忽视的那一张制度环境表。

当 Strategy 还是“比特币叙事的新贵”那几年，指数公司和被动资金愿意为这种“金融工程版 BTC beta”支付溢价。

一旦失去了溢价，甚至股价相对于净资产出现折价，那个神奇的飞轮就会瞬间卡死。那时候，公司不仅无法通过发股来筹集低成本资金，反而可能因为现金流枯竭，被迫在低位“主动”卖币来偿还那些嗷嗷待哺的利息。

MSTR 的市值一度是其比特币净资产的两倍多，Saylor 用这个溢价，多拿了几十亿美元便宜筹码。因为那是当时唯一合规的比特币杠杆入口。那是Saylor 最风光的日子，利用高溢价发股买币，推高币价，再推高股价，左脚踩右脚上天。

但现在画风已经明显变了，ETF 遍地都是。MSCI 和标普甚至正在商讨把这种“伪装成公司的类基金”踢出核心指数。

JPMorgan 粗略算了笔账，如果 Strategy 真被从 MSCI 系列里踢出去，被动资金（passive indexing fund）单这一项就可能卖出 28 亿美元的市值，如果其他指数提供商跟着调整，总被动抛压可能接近 88 亿美元。

更关键的是，这样的剔除不只是一把“砍掉溢价”的刀。它其实在向整个市场传递一个新共识，想要比特币的敞口，不如直接买ETF，不再需要借道一家公司那层复杂的故事包装。

与此同时，Strategy 自己的资本结构也变了味。早期那几笔 0% 或 0.875% 的可转债，曾经是金融工程教科书上的明星案例，现在更多的新增融资来自年化10%、11.75%、接近 12.5% 的永续优先股。

结果就是，为了“永不卖币”这个承诺，公司每年要先向债权人和优先股股东拿出大约 6.89 亿美元的现金，才能继续扮演那个“全球最大的比特币金库”。

那不是简单吓吓人的单期数字，这是一条利息曲线，可以慢慢吃掉时间红利的那种。

到这里再回头看“爆仓线”这三个字，就会发现真正值得研究的问题已经完全变了。

把账拉平你会看到另一条更长的线，
一端是 近65万枚比特币这个不断波动的“地皮”。
另一端，是越来越厚的高息优先股和可转债，是 6.89 亿美元起跳的年化资金成本。

这就好比你买了一块地皮厂房，虽然不用担心银行收房，但每年必须缴纳极其昂贵的租金。如果这块地皮和厂房（比特币）的价格长期横盘，或者涨幅跑不赢这笔租金（资金成本），那么持有资产本身就是在失血。

何况，中间还有指数规则、会计准则、税制演化、ETF 的崛起，以及市场对“用金融工程套比特币”的耐心逐年下降。

在这个维度里，75,000只不过是一个看上去很整齐的刻度，一点都不重要。

真正的爆仓线会像是一个“时间与制度联合作用”的临界线，悄无声息地渗透进骨髓.

比如，
.比特币长时间待在一个不够高的位置，
.利率维持高位不降，再融资成本越滚越重，
.指数机构和税务部门对这种模式越来越冷淡，
.然后某一年，公司不得不开始“卖一点币来喂养整个结构”。

那一刻才叫结构性爆仓。

所以MSTR Strategy 真正的危险并不在于比特币砸到哪一根价位，而在于它愿意用多高的资金成本，去赌这堆币在多长时间里给得起更高的回报。

价格是今天的八卦，资本结构才是明天的命运。

记住，

当资产端的长期漂移率压过负债端的资金成本，时间就会站在你这一边.

反之，时间会很耐心地把所有自以为懂杠杆的人，一个一个送出场。

[SuperDaniel｜超级个体 @superdanielkk]

The situation has already gotten out of control.

[chimp @chimpp]

“Okay, convince them 80k is the generational bottom.

Good. Now wake satoshi from cryosleep.

Make him transfer all 1m btc to coinbase and full stack hitler it.

Excellent, now trigger total market extinction. Zero all assets.

Perfect, mark CIA Experiment 10286 as complete.”

[SuperDaniel｜超级个体 @superdanielkk]

@porounclemao 感觉这次超级抄底成功了

[SuperDaniel｜超级个体 @superdanielkk]

技术分析其实并不难，记住这段话就足够了:

如果趋势是向上，它将继续上升;如果趋势是下降，它将继续下降。
如果上涨很多，但是回调很少，它将涨得更高;如果下降很多，但是只是反弹一点，它将继续下降。

周期越大越有效。

[SuperDaniel｜超级个体 @superdanielkk]

消息的流动从来不是均匀的。

你以为人人都懂的常识性消息，可能在另一群人那里压根没有入口。
所以别假设所有人和你站在同一条时间线上。
这种消息搬运的过程就是网感培养的一部分。
理解这一点之后，你会对“信息差”本身有更清晰的视角

在中文 CT 尤其如此—
圈层不同，信息带宽不同，世界观自然不同

[SuperDaniel｜超级个体 @superdanielkk]

咋办时间到！

[郭宇 guoyu.eth @turingou]

趁着暴跌，我和 becky 聊了一会儿我自己这十几年来对大饼价格的理解，录音因为涉及到一些具体的人和公司，不方便发出来，所以我整理个文字版本。

大饼的真实价格发现我认为分为三个阶段，上古的 OTC 交易阶段，中心化交易所订单簿阶段和大饼 ETF 通过后的华尔街屯币阶段。

在上古时代，场外交易是主导模式，价格非常离散，价差吸引了搬砖者进行套利，这时最大的利润空间来自于矿场，矿场的挖矿价格在很长一段时间决定了大饼的真实价格基础，此时还没有衍生金融工具，价格的波动完全取决于现货交易供需和挖矿成本。这个时期也诞生了 Mt Gox 这样的早期现货匹配交易平台，很可惜由于它的破产，八十多万个大饼被盗，这也为后续 CEX 的发展方向埋下伏笔。

在中心化交易所（CEX）时代，OTC 交易模式逐渐被更高效的订单簿替代，但这也带来了一些问题，一些交易所早期并不处理真实的现货交割，或囿于资金安全与利润考量，将 crypto 世界我认为最不应当引入的期货交易，甚至是永续合约引入了平台并成为了主营业务。这一点为后续大饼的价格发现设置了很大的门槛，在波动被放大的同时，价格模型不再遵从供应和需求的基本逻辑。最重要的是，在这个阶段，CEX 开始进行自发行，参与一级市场，同时充当裁判员与玩家的角色。

最后一个阶段，是大饼 ETF 通过后的华尔街换手阶段，那天，我发过一条推特感慨大饼已经失去了它设计初衷的意义：帮助每个人抵抗无限制的膨胀的债务。因为，在那一刻之后到现在，大饼每一天都在被华尔街换到自己手里。这背后有一系列的逻辑，包括如何将 CEX 变为自己的利益相关方，如何选择合适的托管方，如何掌握现货定价权等等，CEX 的现货存量与交易量在那之后，无论价格涨跌，都在急剧萎缩，我认为，CEX 的交易量已经无法再反应大饼的真实价格，很长一段时间，我观察到最合适评估真实价格的曲线仍然是矿场未来半年内交割的大饼期货定价，随着现货交易的进一步萎缩，我们将在不久后看到某些 CEX 的主营利润受到极大侵蚀，现货交易价格也会在充分换手后趋向平稳。

很明显，华尔街的下一步，会将主流 token 都变成生息资产，这将导致价格进一步趋向稳定，最终，美股将会成为区块链主要的交易应用，美元霸权与美债将由他们代入金融的下一个时代。

换句话说，我认为大饼的故事到此已经进入了终章，四年的周期已经结束，很可惜的是，这并不是它真正的设计目的。但这仍然是个好故事。这篇录音稿转写在暴跌之夜，请大家珍惜现在的价格波动，因为永续期货的时代不会持续太久了…