$SVXY (-0.5x VIX) returned 49% in 2021. 8% was due to lower $VX futures; 41% was due to rolls.
$VXX (+1x VIX) returned -72% in 2021. -16% was due to lower $VX futures; -56% was due to rolls.
$VIX #volatility
"I don’t care what’s causing inflation, it’s too high, it’s my job to get it down,” #Fed Governor Waller said on 6/18 as reported by Bloomberg. Really, no matter what the cause is? Killing demand blindly is not going to solve supply shortage problems.
#Powell on the dot plot:
- Not an FOMC forecast
- Not a commitment
- Not a plan
- No committee discussion on dot plots
- Highly premature to discuss liftoff
- Dots are not a great forecaster of future rate
- There is no “great forecaster”
Wow.
Fed Chair Powell says the real unemployment rate right now is "close to 10%" -->same level as the WORST point of Great Recession.
"We are still very far from a strong labor market whose benefits are broadly shared," Powell says as he vows to keep interest rates low.
VXX (1x VIX) returned +11% in 2020. +57% was due to higher $VX futures curve; -46% was mostly due to beta slippage from rolls.
UVXY (1.5x VIX) returned -17% in 2020 despite +85% (leveraged) higher $VX futures curve.
TVIXF (2x VIX) returned -50%.
$VIX $VXX $UVXY $TVIXF $SVXY
SVXY (-0.5x VIX) returned -37% in 2020. -28% was due to higher $VX futures curve; -8% was due to rolls (backwardation likely overwhelmed contango).
$VIX $VXX $UVXY $TVIXF $SVXY #volatility
Stunned and speechless (and feel like a complete idiot) that we've arrived at an all-time high $VIX and how quickly the Dow lost 9,000 points. Is #coronavirus more damaging than the 2008 GFC??
If $SVXY hadn't deleveraged in '08, it would've been obliterated days ago.
@AndrewThrasher Maybe more precisely it is not "if" but rather "how much". e.g. Trade deal optimism and a friendly Fed are now largely priced in, many would say.