#BTC
In Bear Markets, Bitcoin tends to develop multi-month clusters of price action only to form new Macro Lower Highs before then distributing from the clusters to reach new lows
The good news is there are 1-2 such clusters left in this Bitcoin Bear Market, with the Bear Market Bottom being the final cluster
$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
#BTC
Whenever Bitcoin breaks down from its Macro Triangles (black), price tends to retrace until it forms a Bear Market bottom over time
But the manner in which Bitcoin does this is different from cycle to cycle
In 2018 and 2022 for instance, the Macro Triangle breakdown led to very rapid Bearish Acceleration until the final Bear Market Bottom accumulation period
But what we are seeing now is more akin to the 2014 Macro Triangle, where price is consolidating beneath the Triangle base (orange)
If Bitcoin continues to mirror 2014 then price could still continue to consolidate a bit more but the base of its current Triangle (~$82500) would be the ceiling for Bitcoin
Furthermore, Bitcoin tends to build major consolidation periods on breakdowns from Macro Triangles (orange boxes)
In 2018 and 2022, these major consolidation periods developed at Bear Market bottoms
Whereas in 2014, Bitcoin built two such periods: just beneath the Macro Triangle it broke down from and then later at its respective Bear Market Bottom
If history repeats, this current consolidation period could precede additional Macro Downside over time and the next major consolidation period would develop around the Bear Market Bottom
$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
#Bitcoin – What’s Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: A few days ago, I gave a long at the 71k region and mentioned targets of the 79–84k region, and I am now changing something in the plan! I previously said that between 79–84k I would take profit of the long and ADD more SHORTS, this strategy has now changed and is very important to understand!
My long from the 71k region remains open, but my take profit has changed. Instead of taking profits between 79–84k, I will take HALF OF THE POSITION SIZE as profit at the 76,200 region, and this is also very important to understand! I am NOT adding short orders at 76,200, but still between 79–84k in case the market allows a move there. The other half of the long will also be closed between 79–84k if the market reaches that region. Once 76,200 is hit, I will take profit on half of the position size of the long and move the stop loss to entry to avoid any loss and secure 50% of the profit. I hope this makes sense now. You might wonder where this shift comes from, and I need to admit a small mistake in my calculation: the probability of hitting 76k is very high, but the probability of reaching 79–84k is currently medium. Because of this, I am adjusting my take profit areas. Overall, the short from 115–125k remains open, and additional short orders are placed between 79–84k in case the market reaches that zone, I am not interested to add short orders at 76k region, just if we move higher and we see higher FOMO, I would be interested to add between 79-84k, not earlier.
I am expecting a large downside move in the coming weeks, it should not take much longer, as the move is very close. I am expecting the S&P 500 to crash within the next two months, with a downside move of more than 35%. In comparison, the S&P 500 dropped 34% during the COVID black swan event. I am expecting a much larger downside move this time, with a heavy domino effect.
I am expecting a large trap for bulls as well, something market makers will use to send us lower into the 50s area and even further afterward. We have not bottomed out. The only question now is: how high will we rise before continuing downward? Will it be 76k before rejection, or will we reach the 79–84k region first? This question needs more time to be answered with clarity. While I see the probability of 76k as extremely high, I currently see 79–84k as medium probability, and therefore I am adjusting my trade accordingly. Profit is the only option and I am using every move to make a profit, no matter what my bias are!
As always, I am very transparent with you regarding my trades and decisions, and I want to personally thank you all for the support you are giving. Congratulations to everyone who took the short with me at the exact top, I will keep it open and realize it at much lower levels than where we are now.
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It’s 2025
A new #BTC Four Year Cycle has therefore begun
2025 will be the year of the $BTC Bull Market peak
2026 will be the year of the Bitcoin Bear Market
And 2027 will be the Bottoming Out year to precede an entirely brand new future Bull Market
#Crypto#Bitcoin