Will 🇺🇸

Cloud Engineer ☁️

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

I open sourced my saas template:

Repo:
https://t.co/R0JY0dVhv6

Docs:
https://t.co/gp2srUZBFK

It was built for rapid prototyping with with minimal infrastructure concerns.

Powered by: Firebase, Stripe, Next.js, and Shadcn/UI.

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

@thejayden What would the buy condition and sizing calculation be to maximize reversal potential to get < 1 and minimize risk of a loss. I tried to emulate a similar strategy and that’s where I got stuck reverse engineering.

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

My ideas for lowering mention sniping #latency:
- Colocate a server
- Host my own voice to text models (maybe add speaker identification)
- Rewrite logic in rust
- Faster streaming service

Feel free to share your thoughts or if your interested in getting access to the code 💬

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

Sniping mention markets on @Kalshi . Is the juice worth the squeeze?

Hitting every word, but competition is heating up. Trades aren’t going thru like before. It’s definitely a latency game now.

I’ll share my thoughts below on lowering latency 👇

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

Starting to see promising arbitrage and sniping results from my bots for @Polymarket and @Kalshi

P/L for this week: ~30%

Plan to scale capital over time with confidence/ consistency and test more strategies.

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

Definitely hard when trying to do two things that can consume all your time. Sacrifices are inevitable.

One thing that’s been helping me is to remind myself to prioritize health and energy. When I fail to do that my productivity slips and more costly mistakes are made.

Most important:
- Touching grass
- Consistent sleep schedule
- Drinking water

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

Glad you liked it! There are tons of interesting insights to be found around prediction markets.

I think a big X factor that is overlooked is how accessible the data is. For example if you want quality historic price data for stocks or options, it’s cumbersome and expensive. In contrast predictive markets provide it for free:

@Kalshi - https://t.co/zX8AVDbiAq

@Polymarket - https://t.co/O0NiMtUJha

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

Prediction markets are at the stage options were in the 1960s or sports betting pre-2018.

The data shows why they’re tiny today — and what it will take for them to go mainstream. 🧵

1/ Current state
•Kalshi: ~$1B monthly volume, 62% market share. Median contract = only ~$9K traded. Liquidity depends on one market maker (SIG).
•Polymarket: ~$1.1B monthly, but concentrated in a few traders. Avg trade ≈ $4.8K. U.S. access only now returning with QCEX license.

By comparison:
•U.S. options: hundreds of millions of contracts/day.
•U.S. sports betting: $150B handle in 2024 after PASPA repeal.

2/ Why options exploded (1973)
•CBOE launch + SEC approval = legal clarity
•Black–Scholes = shared pricing model
•Market makers designated to post continuous quotes

Liquidity went from obscure OTC to one of the world’s deepest markets.

3/ Why sports betting exploded (2018)
•PASPA repeal = regulatory clarity
•Mobile apps = easy access
•FanDuel/DraftKings leveraged DFS base → instant liquidity flywheel

Volume jumped from near-zero to $150B+ handle in <6 years.

4/ Prediction markets today
They lack:
•Regulatory clarity: still treated as gambling in many states.
•Depth: Kalshi median market ~$9K vs. $100M+ for liquid options.
•Shared framework: no universal way to hedge or quote risk.

Liquidity is fragmented, spreads wide, and big orders move markets.

5/ The path forward
For prediction markets to go mainstream:
•Regulatory “PASPA moment” → clear national approval.
•Institutional MMs (more SIGs) to tighten spreads.
•Standardized risk framework (probability surfaces, correlation models).
•Integration into financial infra → brokers, APIs, structured products.

Without these, volumes stay in the billions.
With them, we’re talking trillions.

6/ The takeaway
Options and sports books didn’t grow because people suddenly cared more about stocks or sports.

They grew because the rules changed and a framework for risk emerged.

Prediction markets are waiting for the same spark.

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

@probaaron Can’t agree more! Would be nice to have something similar to option greeks for PMs

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

ChatGPT Sources: We draw on platform data and industry reports for volumes and user counts, company announcements (Kalshi blog)  academic working papers on prediction markets and market structure , and historical analyses of the options and sports-betting booms . Regulatory developments come from recent news and filings. Each claim above is supported by these connected sources as cited.

https://t.co/Y7ZLZnQkO7

https://t.co/ITdR0ohPkD

https://t.co/ilG7JHnqMz

https://t.co/3mYKnxk75U

https://t.co/4dyFLjaw2q

https://t.co/F39MmKM6bV

https://t.co/RjfKfwgZAi

https://t.co/ox7UPlR7Zl

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

The “rigged reality” take has it backwards.
With real liquidity, prediction markets stabilize: deep books make manipulation costly + arbitrage wipes it out.

And real liquidity brings regulation, which fights info laundering = insider trading.
Instead of chaos, you get the cleanest audit of truth.

Liquidity is here, more is coming:
https://t.co/ilG7JHnqMz

Regulation has started:
https://t.co/GvfhPFaNvb

More is needed:
https://t.co/RjfKfwgZAi

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

@SolPandasJup @Kalshi @Polymarket Not selling anything… no coin… no website…

Did you read the tweet?

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

Building a realtime data core that pulls from @Kalshi and @Polymarket in hopes of finding some alpha. The end goal being to create, test and validate different trading strategies.

Seems there maybe opportunities for:
- Market making
- Cross platform arbitrage
- Sniping
- +EV Bets

Open to connecting with anyone who finds this interesting.

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

@Kalshinomics Congratulations on the launch, the data looks clean!

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

@probaaron @Atlantislq @sempertrades @Polymarket @shayne_coplan @poly_data Sweet looking forward to connecting! Your DMs are locked down are you able to message me?

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

@probaaron @Atlantislq @sempertrades @Polymarket @shayne_coplan @poly_data Wanna colab I’ve been building a realtime data engine pulling from kalshi and polymarket

Also working on trying to efficiently correlate markets across platforms

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

@PaulTheLi Thanks Paul! I also think I ended up saving a little time creating this tool compared to copy pasting. So definitely a win/win.

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

Was studying for Network+ exam and ended up vibe coding a chrome extension to let me auto add all the acronyms into Quizlet:

https://t.co/efzS5hLVmN

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

Oh and I copy pastad the acronyms from:

CompTIA Network+ N10-009 Last Minute Cram by Andrew Ramdayal

https://t.co/6KlUhZc8DN

If anyone was curious

[Will 🇺🇸 @suppaGPT]

I initially tried to use Selenium but Cloudflare was being a bit of a pain.

Chrome Extension code: https://t.co/RF2QnPMeAX