aaron

actuary | prediction market research & analytics | co-founder @Kalshinomics | xc mtb racer

[aaron @probaaron]

46M contracts traded on 49ers–Rams

I broke down the taker flow and added a new chart tracking prices after large sweeps to see which takers got the better of the trade

both charts and the full breakdown on Resolution Pending
https://t.co/IYhROk73SR

[aaron @probaaron]

@PredMTrader possibly! and agreed there's an absurd amount of opportunities rn

[aaron @probaaron]

it was bonded to 99c this morning but there's more time to pick up Nicki Minaj No shares

I'm out of cash..
https://t.co/Tw33ZxrkhS

[aaron @probaaron]

Kalshi is offering liquidity rewards for Nicki Minaj, but not for many other candidates with an actual shot at becoming the next press secretary?

guess they won’t have to pay out that $160 🤷‍♂️

[aaron @probaaron]

@I_have_no_edge decide for yourself
https://t.co/d0grr10D8Z

[Steven Cheung @StevenCheung47]

Ladies and gentlemen, I think we may have found the new White House Press Secretary! @NICKIMINAJ

[aaron @probaaron]

@PMBonder there needs to be a minimum # of contracts quoted on each side to be reward eligible and only the no side is quoted at 99c

[aaron @probaaron]

Kalshi is offering liquidity rewards for Nicki Minaj, but not for many other candidates with an actual shot at becoming the next press secretary?

guess they won’t have to pay out that $160 🤷‍♂️

[aaron @probaaron]

@snowydragon888 yep good point on Tencent's Hy4, and I chalked up the loss to that at the time

just didn't seem like a market I wanted to continue to be involved in!

[aaron @probaaron]

I turned off all my market-making ops on these AI market share markets because the activity looked suspicious

can’t confirm it’s the same activity, but the timing is interesting
https://t.co/Z51d0ROZ4g

[Nate Meininger @NathanMeininger]

This was so crazy to me that I had to write an article about it https://t.co/7IamLMkdjE

[aaron @probaaron]

I also asked ChatGPT on September 4 how much it would cost to manipulate Tencent’s market share as I was worried people were inflating usage just to move the market then

[Sam Schwartz @samschwartz71]

The PM Pulse 071

• Utah's attorney general sues @Kalshi and SIG
• @Polymarket DeFi waives fees
• @Kalshi x @dillonbrooks24
• @Kalshi skips CFB player props
• @cryptocom x @river_markets
• Trader Notes: @probaaron breaks down @Kalshi’s press secretary market

[aaron @probaaron]

@whycanti_poker @andrewcourt1 feel free to shoot me a DM

[aaron @probaaron]

getting to build this with @andrewcourt1 and meet so many people in the process made this well worth doing

on to new projects!
https://t.co/mXrtcFQCRO

[Kalshinomics @Kalshinomics]

We’ve decided to wind down Kalshinomics as we focus on other projects

We had fun building tools we wanted to use ourselves as traders. Thanks to everyone who used the site, shared our work, or sent feedback

For commercial inquiries: [email protected]

[aaron @probaaron]

@thatdataguy14 @andrewcourt1 few projects in the works. I'm focused more on trading/market making pms and consulting in the space

[aaron @probaaron]

@ResolveMarkets @andrewcourt1 thanks, and excited to see your continued progress!

you guys have one of the sharper platforms that has entered the space

[For Our Futures @foronionfutures]

“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.” https://t.co/FL8sQG0Uad

[aaron @probaaron]

@thsottiaux lfg

[aaron @probaaron]

seeing this in a packed theater was so much fun

Nathan Fielder is one of a kind
https://t.co/L8Tn8ijEPU

[nathan fielder @nathanfielder]

Here is official trailer, You Can See Everything

[aaron @probaaron]

@PromoCactus congrats!

[aaron @probaaron]

@EventWavesIO fair point, and yes what actually triggered the alarm is the story (which isn't shared)

but magnitude does matter to some degree!

[aaron @probaaron]

newsworthy PM stories need a higher bar. this cites three trades: $19, $74, and $80..

if there's evidence of an administration insider, sure investigate, but PMs have had far bigger problems

for the record, I had no part in these <$100 trades on Zacharia!

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

Exclusive: Prediction market Kalshi has launched an investigation into a series of suspicious trades on their platform about the selection of President Trump’s new White House press secretary. https://t.co/lfnMMgHzAD

[aaron @probaaron]

@ChairmanSelig @CFTC derivative? https://t.co/Qcg3OTkNsk