aaron

actuary, prediction market analytics
co-founder @kalshinomics
xc mtb racer 🚵‍♂️

[aaron @probaaron]

https://t.co/EtiEk1rGKm

[aaron @probaaron]

love the concept, just feels a bit staged
$5k in, $12.9k out, taken at 37c after fees

did @Kalshi have a hand in it? great PR, and "hedging" makes a sports bet read more like insurance than gambling

fwiw, $5k pays $13.9k on @Novig, why not hedge there?
https://t.co/VYeHbijBTb

[aaron @probaaron]

@MickBransfield thanks for sharing, I applied ✅

[aaron @probaaron]

@ThonMisser @Sports__Proj @Kalshi @Novig this is good PR for both sides, just way more for Kalshi

PR aside, the bar is probably better off not hedging at all and just eating $5k of one-night variance. I’m sure they can handle that, rather than losing hundreds in fees guaranteed

[aaron @probaaron]

love the concept, just feels a bit staged
$5k in, $12.9k out, taken at 37c after fees

did @Kalshi have a hand in it? great PR, and "hedging" makes a sports bet read more like insurance than gambling

fwiw, $5k pays $13.9k on @Novig, why not hedge there?
https://t.co/VYeHbijBTb

[The Jeffrey NYC @TheJeffreyNYC]

Come watch Game 1 of the NBA Finals at The Jeffrey on Wednesday. If the Knicks win, we’ll pick up your tab!!

Offer valid during the game only for guests who arrive before the tip. Up to $100 per guest. Tax and gratuity not included. Drink responsibly. No purchase necessary.

[aaron @probaaron]

@Sports__Proj @Kalshi @Novig agree + very well produced after taking 3 years off!

[aaron @probaaron]

@LMastro99 @JosephLeonard25 @Kalshi @Novig ah, wasn't aware - thanks for info

still same prices on sportsbooks, this is not a unique kalshi/pm thing

[aaron @probaaron]

@TheNotoriousSKi lmao 😅

[aaron @probaaron]

@HiveLiveHQ 👀

[aaron @probaaron]

election markets are a fun market-making case study

some candidates stay consistently richer/cheaper across venues, so it’s not just “buy the cheaper share” it’s “is this cheap relative to its own history?

useful context
https://t.co/hghl7LNp9F

[aaron @probaaron]

@evyatar_amira @mansourtarek_ using events contracts as insurance, weather is a good example

[aaron @probaaron]

@probabilitygod @Polymarket @Kalshi generally agree, but for really long-dated low-odds markets, there’s even less incentive to participate, or even consider “no,” when your effective max return is below the risk-free rate

for example, all of these 👇

[aaron @probaaron]

@Polymarket just cut long-term holding rewards from 4% to 3.25%

now matches @Kalshi’s 3.25% APY on paper

but Kalshi pays on your whole portfolio - cash + open positions - while Poly only covers a small subset of long-dated markets

edge goes to Kalshi here

[aaron @probaaron]

@0xTakeProfits @Polymarket @Kalshi Polymarket started out heavily subsidized to attract and retain users: no fees, high rewards, etc

but long-term, they still need to make money

Kalshi took the opposite path: charge high fees early, make money upfront → 🤞reduce fees / increase rewards w/ competition

[aaron @probaaron]

election markets are a fun market-making case study

some candidates stay consistently richer/cheaper across venues, so it’s not just “buy the cheaper share” it’s “is this cheap relative to its own history?

useful context
https://t.co/hghl7LNp9F

[Kalshinomics @Kalshinomics]

New labs page: 2028 US Election Market Scanner

One page for @Kalshi vs @Polymarket 2028 markets: current prices, historical spreads, volume, and trade-by-price distributions

Find where the two venues disagree, then see whether that gap is normal, widening, or getting traded

[aaron @probaaron]

would love to see @Kalshi keep pushing into commodities and continue using incentives to bootstrap these markets

perps on oil would be 🔥

[aaron @probaaron]

@0xTakeProfits @Kalshi 🤷‍♂️

[aaron @probaaron]

I'm currently #742, #218, #91, and #318 on the @Kalshi perps waitlist 🤔

[aaron @probaaron]

@Vlad_Web3 @Kalshi lol, I don't understand

not sure they meant to rollout what I'm currently seeing

[aaron @probaaron]

@j0hnwang could I nab an invite code?

just crossed 10m crypto vol on Kalshi - ty for improving those markets ser

[aaron @probaaron]

@Atlantislq i do wonder how often this happens, certainly not 0