Supriyo

Techie by profession | Stock Markets | Cricket 🏏

[Save Invest Repeat 📈 @InvestRepeat]

Was talking to an IT company senior manager. He shared an interesting thing

> A Fortune 500 company gave them contract to implement AI in their entire supply chain for more efficiency.

> The IT company delivered.

> After few months of delivery, token usage costs went up so much that the Fortune 500 company was spending more on token cost than employees in that division.

> They again approached the IT company & gave them another contract to reduce token usage & remove AI from non-critical places.

Interesting.

[Balu Gorade @BaluGorade]

₹1 Cr portfolio, no debt. Nobody notices.

₹1 Cr property with a ₹70L loan. Everyone claps.

Real wealth is silent. 🔥

[Peeyush K Maheshwari @Capeeyush91]

Easy way to understand what happened to IT stocks:

2023-24
Reliance ≈ TCS

2026
Reliance ≈ TCS + Infosys + HCL Tech + Tech Mahindra + Wipro

That’s how brutal the underperformance in IT has been.

[Vikas Vij @TheClubJunto]

IT’s Wake-Up Call

(1) Vishal Sikka says IT companies should go private. Public shareholders’ quarterly mindset will bring doom. (2) Reddit super thread of Bengaluru IT developers shows what’s coming.

Dr. Sikka’s Radical Recipe 2.0

a. Ten years ago, when no one had heard of AI, Vishal Sikka made a revolutionary move for Infosys to invest in OpenAI. Yesterday, Dr. Sikka made an equally revolutionary suggestion – but this time Murthy cannot fire him for it.

b. Dr. Sikka to CNBC India: “The tsunami has hit us. It’s not Vishal Sikka saying it. The water is already in our living room. It will wipe out the older ways of doing things. To me, the big question is how quickly do you pivot – that is, IF you see the urgency.”

c. Self-Disrupt – Go Private: Dr. Sikka says IT companies should go private. “Being private would afford you the independence to make the radical changes that are necessary.”

d. Indian IT companies are hamstrung by quarterly earning calls, retail shareholder optics, and promoter dividend dependence. (Example: 72% of TCS dividend goes to Tata Sons for funding other group companies). So, they cannot make the existential reinvention required to survive.

e. Dr. Sikka gave the example of Netflix. When Netflix decided to abandon its highly profitable DVD rental business entirely and pivot to a 100% streaming platform, it was a near-death choice.

Revenue dipped, stock crashed, shareholders complained, but Netflix extended its life cycle by decades with the bold self-disruption. Its competitor Blockbuster did not make that choice, and died.

Accenture’s Warning Bells

a. Accenture has cut its full-year revenue growth guidance. The CFO said: “More of the guidance range is in play.” Translation: things could get worse.

b. Year-to-date, Accenture already has 104 client orders of $100+ million each. But the gap between AI bookings and AI revenue realization is becoming a growing concern at every analyst call.

c. Morgan Stanley CIO Survey 2026 shows that overall IT budgets of companies (clients) will grow at 3.7%, but IT services budgets will grow at 2%. Note the difference of 1.7%. It means AI is already eating away 40% of IT services growth.

In other words, total tech spending of clients is not shrinking. But the portion going to traditional IT service providers is being cannibalized by in-house AI.

Signals from Ground Zero

Analysts have to depend on lagging indicators (evaluating past quarter’s results.) But this week, a Reddit super thread of IT developers provides some leading indicators.

a. Signal # 1: The original poster (OP) wrote his B2B product company in Bengaluru eliminated 45 of 50 tech roles overnight (90% workforce reduction). Three IT architects remain (OP is one of them) who will handle the job of 45.

b. Signal # 2: OP says: “100% (not 60% or 80%) of React + Chakra UI frontend code over the last 4 months was written by Claude.

More alarming: a full Okta SSO overhaul was done in 4 days, which would earlier take 2 months. “Claude caught, developed, backtracked, tested many things I did not even know were security holes.”

INVESTOR IMPLICATION: TCS Chairman said AI cannot be trusted for complex work like security vulnerabilities. But in reality, that “complexity ceiling” is rising with every passing day.

OP says the company’s rationale is: “If this restructuring does not pay off in 6 months, we can again hire developers who are available a dime a dozen in Bangalore with oversupply.”

c. Signal # 3: Most Important Signal: A commenter said: “Just because a company can build 3x more products or ship features at 3x faster speed does not mean there are 3x more customers waiting to buy them. Productivity can increase much faster than demand.”

Another commenter said: “Earlier the constraint was on production. Now the constraint is on consumption. Even if we could produce what we want, is there a market to consume it?”

INVESTOR IMPLICATION: “AI will expand demand for IT services (expand total addressable market or TAM)” – this was the original bull thesis for IT stocks.

The reality is the opposite of it. Clients are using AI to cut their costs of production (IT vendor contracts), and not increase sales as there is no demand elasticity.

ENDPIECE: What is Your Exit Thesis?

Question for retail IT investors: What is your exit strategy? Are you hoping that FIIs will start buying “too cheap” Indian IT at some point?

Hope is not a strategy.

As a commenter wrote on the Reddit thread:

“I expect there would mass unemployment by late 2027 or early 2028. Hopefully, that would lead to Universal Basic Income or UBI (government’s monthly payments to unemployed citizens for survival) to be put into effect.”

UBI is already the “hopium trade” in Bengaluru.

@arabicatrader

[Manoj Arora @manoj_216]

40 lac tonnes of coal is around 1,000 goods train - full of coal.

And could be anything around Rs 2,000 Crore worth of coal - which is the cost of around 17 Vande Bharat Trains.

A thousand trains full of coal have "disappeared" and they want us to believe that they weren't aware...

C'mon.
May be a plot for the next Bollywood movie!

[Vineeth K @DealsDhamaka]

THESE ARE PRETTY BIG WORDS & there is some truth to it

Equity markets are meant for big boys and professionals

Retail investors can't make a lot of money. It's 10-12%, post taxes & volatility, the risk can't even beat the FD returns

- Shankar Sharma

[Ronit Pereira @CAronitpereira]

Shankar Sharma on retail investors:

“Equity markets are meant for big boys and professionals, they’re not meant for Mr. Joe on the street (retail investors).”

“Best you can make 10-12%, those days are also in the hindsight. Add taxes on that and you cannot even beat FD returns.”

“I have never advised my relatives or friends or even my own sister to invest in equity directly and today they thank me.” 😅

- src: NDTV Profit. June 2026

[Balu Gorade @BaluGorade]

Shankar Sharma on Indian IT:

People criticize them for not building AI. But that was never their model.

They are service companies, and they've done that job exceptionally well.

If they're expected to do everything, what are the other 150 cr Indians doing? 😂

(NDTV Profit)

[ASAN RESEARCH @Asan_research]

अगर आपका CIBIL स्कोर 730 से कम है, तो यह खबर आपके लिए बेहद जरूरी है।

RBI का नया नियम ECL Direction-2026 1 अप्रैल 2027 से लागू होने जा रहा है, जिससे बैंकिंग की पूरी व्यवस्था बदल��े वाली है।

देश के लगभग 62% लोन आवेदकों का सिबिल स्कोर 730 से कम है, जिन्हें अब होम, ऑटो या एजुकेशन लोन मिलने में भारी दिक्कत आ सकती है।

बैंक कम सिबिल स्कोर वाले ग्राहकों को लोन देने से कतराएंगे या फिर जोखिम के बदले ज्यादा ब्याज दर और कोलैटरल मांगेंगे।

अब केवल 2 EMI मिस होने पर भी बैंकों को पहले के मुकाबले 12 गुना ज्यादा राशि प्रोविजनिंग रखना होगा

बैंक अब मुख्य रूप से उन 38% ग्राहकों करीब 7 करोड़ लोग प�� ध्यान देंगे जिनका क्रेडिट स्कोर 730 से ऊपर है।

अगर आप भविष्य में किसी भी तरह का लोन लेने का सोच रहे हैं, तो आज से ही अपने क्रेडिट स्कोर और पेमेंट रिकॉर्ड को सुधारने पर काम शुरू कर दें!
#rbi #Banking #CIBILScore #HomeLoan #AutoLoan

[Shankar Sharma @1shankarsharma]

Since this Bear Market started ( and Yes, it's a full blown bear market, not a silly " correction" etc), Indian SM has been calling a bottom for the past 2 years.

That's okay: there is swarth anywhere you look: finfluencers, fund & wealth managers, MFDs, Media, etc.

So they have to believe a bull market is just seconds away.

The real intellectual question to ask is: how do you actually spot when the bear market ends in the Bull market starts?

The methods I have used broadly ( there are nuances- like the SS- Agreement in Motion, the secrets of which shall go to the grave with me, Lake of Returns Theory, explained superficially by me last couple years - etc.)

are:

If a decline in a market, ( say, India) is systemic, accompanied by a widespread decline in most markets ( 2000 bear market, 2008 bear market, 2020 short crash), then a 30-40% decline WITHIN 2 years, is a good enough level to start getting in.

Similarly, if a stock has declined but the entire market has also declined similarly, then that stock or sector becomes a decent buy within a fairly finite level of all - there is also science & data to determine this.

BUT BUT BUT

The falls that should never be bought - not for a long while - are isolated , tanhai-waali falls in a particular country or in a particular stock, without much obvious explanation - while the rest of the world or rest of that market itself is in a bull market

Companion-free falls & underperformances are huge red flags in my book: they point to reasons that are not visible just yet but there is something seriously wrong for a particular market to go in a totally different direction than the overall wind.

India, on all previous occasions, did exactly in line with what the rest of the world was doing: it fell after the NASDAQ crashed in 2000. It fell during 2008 in a global bear market. It fell exactly inline with the Global bear market in COVID.

But this time it IS DIFFERENT.

And that is why this time it is dangerous.

Because India is totally forsaken , desolate in the kind of market performance or the lack of it that it has displayed.

This has never happened before.

The rest of the world has been in a massive Bull market, AI and without AI ( LATAM, CEE eg).

My Global macro fund has never had an easier time making money while doing the least amount of work.

But looking at India you would think that the rest of the world was in a bear market.

But the world Bull markets are breaking open bottles of champagne.

India's bull is reduced to drinking tharra.

Exactly like a stock that does not rise in a broad bull market but keeps falling: never ever get into that stock.

There is something that the market knows that you do not.

India looks suspiciously like that haveli that nobody occupies, while all other havelis have all the lights and parties on.

These havelis are spooky.

These havelis have secrets. They are just not saying them out.

It is best to let Manoj Kumar or Biswajit open the haveli first & pry out evil aatma inside.

It is best to occupy a neighbouring chawl in the meanwhile.

But in my book, my method -

unexplained bear markets when everything around it is going gangbusters...

.I never try calling the bottom to those...

You just never know what lies beneath...

[Pavanasoonu 🇮🇳 @Pavanasoonu]

You hustled.
You planned.
You sacrificed.

And somehow… it still fell apart.

Jupiter entering Cancer in Punarvasu is for you.

Not the lucky ones. The ones who kept going without a single sign it would work.

This transit doesn’t reward the perfect.
It rewards the persistent.

Your next chapter just got a green light.

RT if you needed this today. ���

[Vijay Kedia @VijayKedia1]

Respected @nsitharaman ji and @FinMinIndia,

Suggestion 3 of 3 for strengthening India's capital markets:

Securities Transaction Tax (STT) should be abolished.

STT was introduced as a simplified transaction tax to facilitate easier collection of taxes from capital market transactions. However, over time, it has effectively become an additional layer of taxation alongside other market-related levies.

A simplification measure should not evolve into permanent duplication.

In addition to brokerage, investors already bear multiple statutory and regulatory charges including exchange transaction charges, GST on transaction-related charges, SEBI turnover fees, stamp duty and STT.

Unlike income tax, STT is payable irrespective of whether an investor makes a profit or a loss. The investor pays the tax simply for participating in the market.

Capital markets play a vital role in channeling household savings into productive enterprises, supporting entrepreneurship, generating employment and strengthening India's economic growth. Transaction costs and multiple layers of taxation discourage participation, particularly among long-term retail investors.

India's equity markets have matured significantly since the introduction of STT. The time has come to review its original purpose and reconsider its continued relevance.

Abolishing STT would simplify market taxation, improve capital market efficiency and encourage greater participation in India's growth story.

Respectfully submitted.

[Gurmeet Chadha @connectgurmeet]

When corporate profitability peaks , market cap goes up, it uplifts the broader economy and not just select few.

- Samsung gave $350000 ( 3.25 cr ) to 80000 workers. Created 175 won billionaires.. massive consumer spending spree in South Korea

- TSMC did not just make individuals rich; its success lifted the broader Taiwanese economy, driving up wages at lower n mid level and luxury markets at higher income level.

Economic prosperity and high growth is the only long term solution to uplift people ..

India needs to grow 8-9% and most importantly respect entrepreneurs.. our policies, taxation needs to reflect that.

jai Jawan , jain Kisan Jai udyogpati should be the new slogan!

[Vijay Kedia @VijayKedia1]

Respected @nsitharaman ji and @FinMinIndia,
Suggestion 2 of 3 for strengthening India's capital markets:

Dividend income on listed equities should not be subjected to double taxation.

A business can raise capital in only two ways: debt or equity.
When a company raises debt, the interest paid to lenders is treated as a business expense and deducted before tax. The lender may then pay tax on the interest received.

However, when a company raises equity capital, dividends are paid out of profits that have already suffered corporate tax. The shareholder is then taxed again on the same stream of income.

More importantly, equity capital bears far greater risk than debt capital. A lender has a contractual right to interest and principal repayment. A shareholder has no such guarantee. Dividends are discretionary, capital is fully at risk, and the shareholder stands last in line if a business fails.

If debt providers receive tax-deductible compensation despite bearing lower risk, there is a strong case for more favourable treatment of equity providers who supply the permanent capital that fuels entrepreneurship, innovation, employment and economic growth.

India needs to encourage long-term risk capital and greater participation in equity markets. Tax policy should reward those who provide patient equity capital to Indian enterprises rather than place them at a relative disadvantage compared to debt capital.

Respectfully submitted.

[Supriyo @supriyosaha03]

@Cryptified_Soul

[Supriyo @supriyosaha03]

#SBI

[Sunil Gurjar, CFTe @sunilgurjar01]

“I would remove Capital Gains tax completely if I was being made Finance Minister of India for one day.”

“We say ‘Atithi Devo Bhava�� in India and we require FIIs money, so we should follow global countries like USA, China in taxation.”

- Ramdeo Agarwal. May 2026

[CA Ruchita Vaghani @R_N_Vaghani]

I Don't want to be Like Man Mohan Singh - FM Nirmala

Respected Madam You can not be even if you want.

Man Mohan singh & Chidambaram ji faced media in Crisis.

But You and your minister disappeared like you were never exist.

FII Gone , because your one statement - Rupee & Economy is suffering.

Man mohan singh ji cared for middle class and he took every possible decision which help meddle class survive but in your tenure middle class is on ventilator.

& Stock market is in Coma.

[कुंभकरण @_kumbhkaran]

And the gov is telling me that this is happening because we are buying gold..

Incompetents are settling their kids abroad, hoarding billions of dollars in black money, looting the middle class with heavy taxes to distribute freebies and win elections, and then asking us to stop buying gold because it is bringing down the rupee!!

[Sincere Dibya @TheSincereDude]

Taiwan +40% in 4 months. Korea hitting records.
India? -7% in 2026, ₹2 lakh crore in FII exits, and no seat at the AI table.

This didn’t happen overnight.

11 years. No semiconductor ecosystem. No AI industrial policy. No listed company meaningfully linked to global chip supply chains.

Modi spent a decade blaming Nehru for missing the 1960s bus, then missed the 2020s one himself.

TSMC alone is 40% of Taiwan’s entire index. Samsung + SK Hynix drive Korea’s rally. India’s answer? Photo-ops at Dholera. Foundation stones. Announcements. ₹76,000 crore pledged in 2021 for semiconductors; but markets don’t rally on press releases.

FII ownership in Nifty 500 is now at a record low of 17.1%. Global money isn’t waiting for India to figure this out. It’s already moved.

If India drops out of the world’s top 5 markets, it won’t just be a ranking. It’ll be a signal; to global capital, to tech companies, to the next generation; that India is a great place for speeches, not systems.

The damage isn’t coming. It’s happening right now.