Francis.

[Francis. @surboi]

Please who has a bus that can pick up school children???
I would Pay, Please... I really can’t watch to see alot of them trekking again tomorrow.... & i can only carry 6 at a time...
The bus should be able to pick up 18/trip & should be ready to go atleast 3trips in the morning

[Idowu Anthony-Ajileye @dobmarch8]

Business Funding Opportunity !!!

If you have a great business idea but struggling to get funds to implement it, this post is for you.

The cost implication to fully implement the business must not exceed N50m and the business MUST be domicilled in Lagos, Nigeria.

There is no catch please. It is not a loan. I will fund the business 100% and your reward will be 20% ownership of the business forever without incurring any start up cost yourself and no financial risk to you.

Serious people please. I will only proceed if l am convinced the idea is good and realistic.

If this is you, send an email to [email protected] with subject line "BUSINESS FUNDING OPPORTUNITY" and summarise your proposal in not more than 200 words (20 lines).

If you are successful, you will be contacted on 30th June 2026.

All the best !!!

[Francis. @surboi]

My TIP shares i bought on the PO has reflected on my cardinal stone account

Well done
@CardinalStoneNG 👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾

[The NGX Plug @TheNGXPlug]

Aradel Is Bigger Than The Market Thinks

Before going further, it is important to note that I am bias towards Aradel, I have a decent position in them too. A post about that can be found here: https://t.co/Gk7eHiXb3z

So lets get into it.

Every now and then, a listed company changes so fundamentally that looking at it through the lens of its old numbers stops making sense.

That may well be where we are with Aradel.

For many investors, Aradel is still the company they came to know over the last few years: a well-run indigenous oil producer with solid cash flows, a refinery business that added some diversification, and a sometimes rewarded shareholders.

The problem with that view is that the Aradel of today is not the Aradel of yesterday.

I would like to make a somewhat compelling argument that the market may still be underestimating just how much the business has changed following its acquisition of an additional 40% stake in ND Western, completed in December 2025.

The transaction pushes Aradel’s effective economic interest in Renaissance Africa Energy Company (RAEC) to 53.3%, crossing the threshold for full consolidation. In plain English, this means Aradel is no longer merely taking a share of profits from RAEC. It is now bringing the business fully onto its books, including revenues, production, assets, debt and cash flows.

That distinction matters more than many people appreciate.

Before now, Aradel’s investment story was partly obscured. Investors could see earnings flowing in from associated businesses, but the economics beneath were harder to fully appreciate because they sat outside the reported operating line. Going forward, the company begins to look very different. Bigger. More asset-heavy. More cash generative. And perhaps more deserving of a different valuation framework altogether.

The easiest way to think about this is simple: Aradel has moved from having exposure to a giant upstream business to effectively controlling one.

And scale changes everything (yes, size matters...sometimes).

According to some analysts' estimates, consolidated production could rise to 48.7 mmboe in 2026, increasing to 68.1 mmboe by 2028 as RAEC ramps production toward its longer-term targets.

But here is where the story gets even more interesting.

At the same time that Aradel is becoming a materially larger company, oil prices have been unexpectedly supportive.

The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have inserted a risk premium into global oil markets, with Brent spending much of early 2026 around the $100/bbl mark, even if analysts expect prices to normalize over time.

For an upstream oil company, price matters immensely.

If you own a business producing meaningfully more barrels while simultaneously selling those barrels at a higher price than previously expected, operating leverage kicks in hard.

Personally, I believe upstream gross margins could expand to over 56% in 2026, while group EBITDA may cross $1.2 billion. I expect revenue to rise to about $2.4 billion in 2026 under the new consolidated structure too.

Now, before anyone accuses this of sounding overly euphoric, there are important caveats. Oil is cyclical.

The same geopolitical premium helping oil prices today could disappear tomorrow. If tensions in the Middle East ease faster than expected and Brent drifts back toward the $65 to $70 range, earnings expectations would need to be revised lower. I am aware that Aradel is benefiting from tailwinds that may not last forever.

There is also execution risk...

Much of the upside case depends on RAEC continuing to ramp production smoothly toward its targets. Operational bottlenecks, underperforming wells, delays or integration issues could all slow the earnings trajectory investors are currently beginning to price in. The refinery business also faces timing risks after the expansion timeline shifted from late 2025 to early 2027. None of these risks are fatal, but they matter.

Still, even after accounting for those risks, one question remains difficult to ignore:

Is the market fully pricing in the new Aradel?

This is where the bull case becomes harder to dismiss.

Personally, I value the stock at about NGN2,500 per share (this valuation is not driven by one heroic assumption. It comes from a sum-of-the-parts framework that separately values the upstream business and refinery segment).

Interestingly, even on reserve-based peer comparisons, Aradel does not appear outrageously priced. On an EV/2P reserves basis, it trades broadly around peer averages despite arguably having a higher quality, newly consolidated reserve base through RAEC. That suggests the market may still be treating Aradel partly like the company it used to be, rather than the one it is becoming.

And then there is the dividend conversation.

This is probably the question many retail investors care about most.

Though the management has not yet announced a formal post-consolidation dividend policy, which is understandable given the enlarged balance sheet and integration process. But if Aradel were to broadly maintain its historical approach of paying the higher of 50% of PAT or 20% of operating cash flow, dividend capacity could increase materially simply because the earnings and cash generation base is now much larger.

That said, expecting management to aggressively distribute cash immediately may be optimistic. Debt reduction, operational integration and reinvestment into growth will likely compete for attention. Investors expecting an overnight windfall could be disappointed.

But perhaps that misses the bigger picture.

The real debate around Aradel today is not whether next year’s dividend will be slightly higher or lower.

It is whether the market has fully internalized that this is now a fundamentally different company.

For years, Nigerian investors have often been slow to re-rate businesses after transformational shifts, particularly when the change is buried in accounting consolidation and not immediately obvious in headline earnings. Markets sometimes anchor themselves to old narratives long after reality has moved on.

Aradel may be testing that tendency in real time.

Because if the underlying assumptions prove broadly right, investors are not looking at the same Aradel that traded a few years ago.

They are looking at something significantly larger, more cash generative, and potentially more valuable.

PS. This is not financial advice.

[Francis. @surboi]

@ViictorSol What news chief ?? 🙏🏾

[W🫶🏾 @woonu_o]

This is the car
Toyota Corolla : SMK759HY
Last seen : Acme Crescent, Ogba, Lagos
This is the only picture I have but the scratch is no longer there

[Francis. @surboi]

@MrBeast @LuckyGoldx Cool

[Francis. @surboi]

@ADUOLUWATOPE @ProfitableMan1 Uncle Tee, is Aradel a good buy at 1,200 ?

[Arron Grange @arron_grange]

Hi @LFC ❤️

My brother Carl is a lifelong Liverpool fan and loves Dominik Szoboszlai.

He’s currently battling terminal cancer, and Liverpool is one of the few things that still brings him joy. A short video message from Dom or any of the players would mean the absolute world.

[Sir Dickson @Wizarab10]

Having conferred with @the_beardedsina, it is time for @_belikebaddy to undergo surgery on his second leg after the successful operation on the right leg. Thank you all for your support in the first instance.

We will be needing N19m for the second surgery. Please find the account number below. Raise am 👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽

0249219856
Wema bank
Obadiah David Adedolapo

Crypto:
TDuMZ8gQGatymLEkkMCXgSqkuFoduXyBxd

USDT TRC20

[Francis. @surboi]

@Rufyb Wiz!!!

[Rufybaba @Rufyb]

Yields in the fixed-income market should also naturally go up, but that too will depend on other moving variables.

That's by the way. Depending on how this progresses, I am eyeing Seplat and Aradel big time.

If the crisis lasts, the two coys may just be in for a good time.

[Francis. @surboi]

@AribisalaSeyi Baba Omojola mini Estate, inside Millennium estate.

[Francis. @surboi]

@indykaila Liverpool should consider bringing Nigeria’s right back … Osayi, he is the new Gold

[Francis. @surboi]

@OkoroVivian16 @joinpesa Hello good day, have they attended to you ? I want to know if it’s a good app to receive funds with… but seeing your comments i’m kind of concerned

[Francis. @surboi]

@Osi_Suave I have this 2bed apartment in lekki phase 1 for 250k / night

[HopeHannah @HopeHannah8]

Please help repost, he is my husband