suxin.eth

fx & rates trader | web3 buidler | Columbia alum 🦁️

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

https://t.co/jM7uZAfnQO

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

emm.. shorting Chinese equities is considered the second-most crowded trade after “Long Big Tech.” In addition, 13% of investors surveyed considered the Chinese housing market to be the most likely source of global credit risk

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

from private chains to ethereum
https://t.co/cDvMbqljCb

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

svb, silvergate's regulation implication

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

morning came to office, all screen price disappeared. seems some market makers' prices are still available but with wide spreads. indeed the biggest risk in china is policy risk, as i said over and over again
#china #trading

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

interesting, so all 6 brokers in china has to stop feeding price to bbg/reuters starting tmr.. are we back to 20 years ago?
#china #trading

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

goldman no longer think fed to hike at march meeting after svb failure, market's expectation for terminal rate is dropping rapidly, already 65bps lower than last week.. all eyes on us cpi tomorrow

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

good summary.. SVB’s woes are a combination of one of the largest hiking cycles in history, one of the most inverted curves in history, one of the biggest bubbles in tech in history bursting, and the runaway growth of private capital.

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

@charlton_lu $ coming from HK (offshore) to Shanghai/Shenzhen (onshore) to buy china stonks

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

CNY is enjoying the support from foreign northbound equity flows. Since the beginning of the year, the average northbound inflow on a trading day is 6bn yuan. Quick solid support.

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

what are traders' views towards the market ahead? Apparently traders worry more about recession, higher vol, and AI/ML.. (survey by JPM)
https://t.co/61daqiFGb7

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

Solid profit coming from regulatory arbitrage

[Risk.Net @RiskDotNet]

RBC is wooing asset management clients with its aggressive FX forwards pricing strategy https://t.co/FAtxQryxAb

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

@brucechan0824 ya seems feeds are being censored

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

Today my office Bloomberg tv signals get cut every time they start to mention china.

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

@suji_yan 🙏

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

new office gadget: a portable moss

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

trading private equities using synthetic derivatives
https://t.co/aVovAYXoMy

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

we see more positive news for the yuan from both fundamental side (better econ outlook after reopen) and flow side (piling corp selling need from exporters). So USDCNY has prob already peaked at 7.33 in the beginning of Nov for this round of yuan depreciation if no sudden shock.

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

This week: USDCNY rebounded from monday's low of 7.03 to 7.16 on Thurs after euphoria over loosening covid policies faded. The pair probably has entered consolidation mode within range 7.0-7.2. Looking into year end, altho US-China rate gap still exist with unfinished Fed hikes,

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

down another 300pips to 7.04 with good selling from exporters. Offshore CNH up to 50pips lower than CNY. Rates market finally woke up: 10y CGB traded up 8bps and 5y repo IRS surged 16bps today. Xi and Biden is meeting today in Bali G20, might talk abt Taiwan and trade. Lets see.

[suxin.eth @suxinshen]

China's regulators issued a new plan to boost the real estate market. Seems the gov turns the attention back on the domestic economy instead of endless covid restrictions. Plus weaker dollar, all good news for the yuan today. Sentiment was largely boosted with USDCNY spot traded