BREAKING: US stock market futures surge after Pakistan announces that the US and Iran have reached a peace deal:
1. S&P 500: +0.8%
2. Nasdaq 100: +1.3%
3. Dow Jones: +0.6%
4. WTI Crude: -5.0%
5. Brent: -4.0%
6. Gold: +2.0%
Pakistan says the peace deal is set to be signed on June 19th.
🇲🇽 Mexican president demands answers after car crash kills four officials, including two U.S. officials linked to embassy, revealing secret anti-narcotics operation
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is soliciting answers from the U.S. Embassy and the government of Chihuahua after four officials, including two U.S. officials linked to the embassy, died in a car accident following an anti-narcotics operation. The accident inadvertently revealed previously unknown cooperation between the U.S. Embassy and the state of Chihuahua in Mexico, with Sheinbaum stating in a press conference Monday that her government did not have knowledge of the direct participation of U.S. officials in operations with the state of Chihuahua.
Pie de Nota journalist Luis Chaparro reports that the two personnel killed were CIA.
The Mexican leader said that her administration does not authorize joint actions of that kind inside Mexico at any level, with collaboration limited to intelligence sharing, and that joint work must be carried out under a strict framework of respect for sovereignty. Mexico passed strict legislation in 2020 that requires that all collaboration with foreign agents receive prior authorization at the federal level. The president ordered that information be gathered to determine whether legal provisions were violated.
U.S. Ambassador Ron Johnson acknowledged the incident, expressing his condolences in a post on social media; meanwhile, the State Department declined to comment.
It's official:
The world is now experiencing its biggest energy crisis in history, with 600 MILLION barrels of lost oil supply.
US gas prices are up +47% since December and inflation is nearing 4% in a similar path to the 1970s.
What happens next? Let us explain.
(a thread)
The plot thickens:
On Friday, at 8:24 AM ET, there was a sudden surge in buying volume in S&P 500 futures as $325 million worth of longs were purchased.
This is the same exact timestamp that $760 million worth of oil shorts were taken.
Just 21 minutes later, Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said the "Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open."
By 12:45 PM ET, S&P 500 futures had surged to a new record high with this $325 million trade profiting +$50 million in 4 hours.
That's +$50 million over the same exact timeline as oil traders made +$70 million on shorts.
What is happening here?
📉 Iran’s lead negotiator, Parliament Speaker MB Ghalibaf, is once again flexing his financial literacy and trolling the U.S. with a sophisticated taunt aimed at futures markets — posted just as they opened at 6 pm ET.
In a post on X now going viral with nearly 500K views, he notes a parallel between two trades based on sophisticated financial instruments that are actually based on “a house of cards”:
◽️“Vibe-trading digital oil” refers to trading oil futures or derivatives based on sentiment and speculation rather than the actual physical supply — which is what’s happening when traders bet on Hormuz disruptions without real barrels changing hands. The pattern has also attracted federal scrutiny: three large trades totaling over $2 billion were placed minutes before major U.S.-Iran announcements, each generating lucrative returns as markets moved sharply on the news.
◽️“Vibe-hedging in treasuries during Hormuz risk-off” refers to investors fleeing into U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe haven during the crisis — the classic “risk-off” move. He’s saying that trade is actually also just vibes, and not backed by fundamentals.
◽️His punchline: oil at least has a real price benchmark — Dated Brent, which is the physical spot price for actual crude deliveries (and has been trading at a significantly higher price than the futures price). U.S. Treasuries, by contrast, are backed by confidence in American financial credibility alone. “Vibes all the way down,” says Ghalibaf.
👉 What he’s really saying: Iran controls a physical chokepoint for 20% of the world’s real oil. The U.S. financial system’s safe-haven status is built on perception and trust — and that trust is being stress-tested by a war it started and can’t finish cleanly.
👉He’s implying the dollar’s reserve currency status is the more fragile house of cards here.
The Bloomberg terminal command at the bottom (EUCRBRDT Index GP GO) pulls up the Dated Brent crude price chart — he’s telling people to look at the real oil spot price and draw their own conclusions.
BREAKING: Iran says it has "forced" the US to accept its "10-point plan" which includes the following terms:
1. Commitment to non-aggression
2. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz
3. Acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment
4. Lifting of all primary sanctions
5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions
6. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions
7. Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions
8. Paying compensation to Iran
9. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon
Trump says this plan is "a workable basis."
This is just too funny 🤦♂️
Trump's justification for extending his deadline by 2 weeks is that Pakistan's Prime Minister "requested" it.
But when you look at the edit history of the post in question by Pakistan's PM, where he "requests" the extension, it's painfully obvious it was sent to him by the White House since he first stupidly posted it with the mention "Draft - Pakistan's PM Message on X" 🤣
The Dangerous Dollar"
The British magazine The Economist dedicated the main article of its latest issue to the toxicity of the US currency and the assertion that "the old financial architecture is collapsing".
The article notes that dollar assets are no longer a safe haven, and the US currency itself is becoming toxic. While the US claims to have a "great economy", the figures say otherwise: since its peak in January 2025, the dollar has lost a tenth of its value in the currency rating.
It is also stated that US stocks denominated in euros have hardly brought any profits to investors over the past year. Experts from The Economist are confident that this is not just a temporary volatility, but a fundamental change. The key conclusion of the article is that the world understands very well that storing savings in the currency of a country with an astronomical national debt (already more than 38.7 trillion dollars) and an aggressive sanctions policy is an unjustifiable risk.
Guys, nobody knows what’s going on except the people that know. So just enjoy the ride. The only thing I can say that I feel confident is there’s definitely an event that hasn’t been announced that the inside people know about. Just enjoy the ride it’s bigger than us. I’ll do a recap tomorrow morning.
Talked to Chinese insider, based in Hong Kong, @KingKong9888.
He explains the global shortage of gold and silver, why prices will keep on rising and how there will be a battle between a commodity based BRICS standard vs a $ Stablecoin Bitcoin standard.
https://t.co/kwIh8B9hPC
4) Most small investor peeps are invested in miners which are physical Gold proxies.
5) When physical Gold becomes difficult to get or unavailable and GLD gets exposed as BS,miners will fly because they are only gateway for the mass public to be exposed to physical Gold’s upside
Scott Galloway: on CNN tonight: Notes on Being a Man- Scott’s mission on understanding young men. Men are dropping out of post secondary at higher rates, leading to a graduation ratio of roughly 33:66 (men:women). Scott, this is an important book
The silver market traded 556 million paper ounces yesterday. The comex had 312 deliveries and the LBMA had 138. See the panic today trying to bring down spot $2. Last time it took a billion ounces traded to manipulate it that much. Keep stacking patriots!!