In fact half the people I meet in beach clubs in St Tropez / Marbella are doing exactly this: one year it’s crypto, then an Amazon brand, then an AI lead-gen agency, then solar panels or some subsidised renovation business.
Make €1m here, €2m there, shut it down when the margins disappear, spend six months travelling, then come back with the next “coup.”
I used to think this was just unserious entrepreneurship, but some of them have become genuinely very good at it. Their real business isn’t crypto, AI or solar panels. It’s being early.
They spot a new distribution channel, regulatory distortion, shortage or wave of hype before everyone else, build something around it very quickly, then leave before the market gets crowded.
There’s no attachment to the product or industry because the company is only the vehicle. What actually compounds is the cash, contacts, execution speed and instinct for where the next trade will be.
The old founder wanted to build one company that would outlive him.
The new one wants enough wins that he never has to depend on one company at all.
I published a note today that I've been thinking about for months.. About how the US stock market has arguably become too big and too imp to fail.. It's basically America's retirement fund now and poss even the savior of social security which is expected to run out of money in less than 10yrs
-Curr 55% of ppl own stocks, by far most in world. And w/ Trump Accounts bringing in 28 million add'l americans into stock ownership the vast majority of ppl (incl Top 1% (who own HALF of stock mkt), middle class and lower income) will have financial interest in the health of stock mkt and they're all voters = the political pressure to keep stocks out of a prolonged bear market is going to be very powerful.
-As such I think there's good chance the Fed will buy equity ETFs in the next major downturn to support market and it will be common practice going fwd. China and Japan already do this. They may even target certain sectors or Capex cos with the purchases.
-This is a massive variable that I feel like is a blind spot among the experts out there and why the bears get run over time and time again altho I think investors are onto it as evidenced by the persistent flows into ETFs during pullbacks as well as a survey of 1000 ppl showing 3/4 of them are confident the Fed will bail out markets in next crisis.
-This is just one byproduct of the 'Nothing Stops This Train' monetary supply explosion and debt extravaganza sweeping the world but esp in US which at this point feels irreversable.. Thoughts? lol
here's what will happen.
- u16 ban passes, platforms must verify all ages
- kids use VPNs, government bans VPNs
- age verification infrastructure already exists, its scope gets broader, more invasive, more extreme
- Online Safety Act forces backdoors into encrypted messaging, E2E encryption dies, gov can read everything you ever send
- CBDC rolls out, your internet passport and financial passport become the same document
- anonymous accounts posting "wrongthink" are now identifiable + prosecutable
- the generation that grows up with this doesn't remember it being any other way
- George Orwell was right about everything
- it's over
I can pretty confidently say that this works 100% of the time. If you convince yourself that you are going to be fine and that things will work out, they on average will because self-doubt just gets torn apart.
None of this stuff is real anyway, just convince yourself.
the hardest part of crypto isn't losing money
it's that 90% of the gains come in a 6 month window after 3 years of nothing
knowing which phase you're in is the entire game
the function of your professional life is to find the most natural structure that allows you to turn the things you do as naturally as breathing or walking into compounding capital and joy over decades
this, necessarily, requires rotating quickly out of things that aren't it
@CanteringClark Idk who said it but I remember a long time ago a tweet that said something like “you act too quickly when you are trying to grow capital, and you act too slowly when you are trying to protect capital” and it rly changed my life tbh
Many iterations of SBF, CZ, KOL p&ds, etc. and all I will say is this:
Remember that it is your duty as a good man to accumulate money.
If you do not, then money simply accumulates in the hands of demons and while you contemplate the spiritual and ethical corruption of wealth, they will buy your destiny.
So tell me again how noble it is to stay poor while they grow rich enough to rewrite reality.
Was talking about it with a friend but I’m less concerned with trying to time an exceptional pico bottom type entry rn than just identifying when a sustainable uptrend can form again
With all the fake headlines and nonsense these days, any of them can form a long term bottom given how unpredictable shit is rn. It’s just too difficult to assume what is true and not and permanent or short term at the moment
Catching that entry would be mostly luck, but assessing when conditions are favourable for sustainable trending prices is more reasonable of a goal.