Stephen Blackwell

Founder of The Beam.
Thinking out loud about music, systems, and incentives.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

How it feels when it hits the inbox @elonmusk

[Vivek Garipalli @VivekGaripalli]

At this point, it would be ridiculous if Musk & SpaceX don't build and sell their own mobile device:

-- Domestic manufacturing: Tesla/SpaceX already make batteries, vehicles, and rockets mostly in the US. They could handle most (if not all) of the phone's production domestically - supply chain security, generally tariff-proof, made in USA

-- Massive leverage on components: Starlink's scale + xAI integration gives them huge buying power for memory (DRAM/NAND) and other parts for years to come. Costs stay low while other mobile manufacturers struggle on components procurement

-- OS ownership is mandatory: To optimize on-device inference costs (and have lowest latency), they'll need to run a "GrokOS/xOS" natively, they can't rely on Android/iOS (not that iOS would be an option)

-- Chip tailored for sat-to-cell: Custom silicon designed around Starlink Direct to Cell tech - ultra-low power for satellite links, seamless handover from towers to space. Will be able to materially underprice Verizon and AT&T

IMO, they should just acquire T-Mobile right now. Market cap hovering around $225B - pricey for sure, but it instantly solves dense urban/suburban coverage. Starlink handles the empty 90% of the planet; T-Mobile's spectrum/towers handle the cities. Can take a lot of market share very quickly. Acquisition will pay for itself in a few years.

Apple sits at ~69% US smartphone share. A compelling Starlink Phone would realistically grab 10%+ in the US fairly quickly - mostly peeling from Apple users tired of coverage gaps or ecosystem lock-in. That margin pressure will create a downward spiral for Apple: lost share leads to slower growth leads to talent exodus leads to innovation slowdown leads to more share loss.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

I wrote a longer piece connecting the crazy causal chain in music — albums, equivalency, feeds, pro-rata, and why new artists feel stuck. It's a little long so I recorded an audio version, too. it’s here → https://t.co/xEGMNgnKNB

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

Every era that fails the young and inspired eventually gets replaced by them. New systems aren’t built by incumbents. They're built by the creative minority.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

Monthly listening works well for platforms. It does not work for new artists. That’s the core tension of modern music.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

The problem isn’t talent. It's just that advocating for talent hasn't gotten so much harder.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

The barrier to making music disappeared. The barrier to being heard skyrocketed.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

39 million tracks uploaded to streamers in 2025. In 2016? ~58,000. An 8,000% increase in 10 years. Do you think attention went up by 8,000%? It didn't.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

For emerging artists, side quests replaced the main quest.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

Young artists spend a lot time trying to influence machines. Content farming is, like, the opposite of art. But it's seen as the key to artist development.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

Today's emerging music artists are told to: Post constantly • Use specific tools • Study the algorithm and THEN maybe get playlisted.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

Feeds have removed all curation gates. When everything is available all the time, nothing feels important.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

Today's generation’s goal is getting playlisted by an algorithm. You can't make a movie about getting on a playlist.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

Hollywood used to make movies about getting a song on the radio, a video on @MTV, or being on the cover of @RollingStone. These were gates. Getting through them changed lives.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

In music, catalog dominance isn’t a sign of cultural decay. It’s the rational outcome of engagement-optimized feeds.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

@tferriss I do low-leverage nonsense like clear my inbox instead of real work more often than I’d like to admit.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

Algorithms don’t prioritize new music. They prioritize continuation. Predictable songs keep people listening longer. New, unknown songs could end a listening session.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

2025 data: 86% of new tracks got under 100 streams • 70%+ of playlist streams go to catalog. Music streaming isn't really about taste, it's about math. That's because albums end but playlists don't.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

When a fan bought an album back in the day, it was a symbol of fan intent. Today, intent doesn't—volume does. That’s the quiet rule of streaming.

[Stephen Blackwell @sxblackwell]

Pooled payment systems, in music, reward scale, not support. That’s great for catalogs and playlists. It’s brutal for emerging artists trying to build momentum one fan at a time.