The Blob warned us

Stratosphere enthusiast, foamer, vagabond.

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

This account makes unlinked assertions based on intuition, is not a researcher, student, or professional in the field. It's meant to be useful, but not authoritative. I am a weather weenie trying to explain my reasoning for polar vortex stuff. :D

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

https://t.co/HN8ysrGkE9

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

El Niño is likely to fizzle because of how strong it's coming on. Forecast the change, not the climate, and it will serve people well. https://t.co/qnQFtsPfiW

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

i think it's gonna be one of these years, and a third in a row for east Texas, severe/flooding

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

In my opinion, major SSW in late Feb - March favor stormy & wet spring conditions in the southern plains. Would like to see our current polar vortex split evolve into a final warming to add weight to this proposed link. It would be the 3rd year in a row of Texas flood.

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

winds popped up in the distant medium range in early February. the reflective factor will probably gain with chances of final SSW every week or two going through Feb into March, frequently weakly reflecting downward into turbulent lower strat.

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

The medium range is showing the next wave interaction of the polar vortex, a reflecting distortion of the wind, but coming back together maybe even stronger than before. given the year we've had, I could see a final SSW mid to late February and look for this pattern in Spring

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

Since 2000, sudden stratospheric warmings in Feb-March are often followed by rainy Spring weather in a band east of the Rockies.

[Eun-Pa Lim @EunPa_Lim]

In the SH, wintertime sudden stratospheric warming is very rare & its downward impact on surface climate is not well known. Our new study reveals typical characteristics of SH winter stratospheric warming events & unique features of the 2024 winter SSW: https://t.co/4tnSRayfXR

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

The cold polar stratosphere should last only a short time. Now we see warm signals around Jan 20th. I believe we'll see a related cold air outbreak in North America in the last week of January. Cold focus on Alberta, Idaho, Montana, but strong outbreak could push East as well.

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

Going into week 3, I think we could see a return to December's weather, cold outbreak along the Northern Rockies, west based cold pattern.

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

GEFS in the distant medium range now exhibiting a wave 2. Signs point to a Mid-January wave reflection with potential building for repetition or absorption End-January.

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

A second peak in temperature wave 1 is seen at the end of January in tonight's GEFS extended

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

Acid. Bacon fat. https://t.co/5zNrBC90uu

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

End of January, early February there is signal in the long range ensembles for warm in the polar stratosphere.

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

More wave driving than expected is now appearing in GEFS extended and CFSv2 forecast. Look at the angled line becoming more yellow than blue from left to right at a given lead time. Some more positive heat flux at 100hPa in forecast.

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

@tim_dunkerton errata:

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

@tim_dunkerton The stratosphere appears to become stiffer to planetary waves with instantaneous full-column vertical translation. The atmosphere isn't just flowing, it is ringing like a bell, because the walls are closing in. Does this track with your observations?

[The Blob warned us @systemrename]

@tim_dunkerton global warming is white genocide against white rabbits, white bears, white seals, and so on.