Thomas A. Smith

Husband, father, Catholic, dog dad, law professor, past tomato farmer, budding woodworker, libertarian, blogger (The (New) Right Coast).

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

SpaceX a clôturé son premier jour de cotation à 2 100 milliards de dollars, +19%. Tout le monde regarde le chiffre. Personne ne regarde ce qu'il price réellement.

Laissez-moi vous dire ce que le marché vient d'acheter, et pourquoi je pense que cette boîte vaudra 30 à 50 trillions d'ici 5 ans.

D'abord, le symbole. Cette IPO est un référendum. D'un côté, 20 ans de discours sur la décroissance, la sobriété, la redistribution, la fin de l'histoire gérée par des comités. De l'autre, un homme qui a dit "je vais rendre l'humanité multiplanétaire", que tout le monde a traité de clown, et qui vient de créer la plus grosse entreprise cotée de l'histoire en partant d'un entrepôt à El Segundo. Le marché a voté. Le wokisme avait des départements RH, SpaceX avait des fusées. Les fusées ont gagné.

Ensuite, la mécanique économique, parce que c'est là que tout le monde se trompe. Les analystes valorisent SpaceX comme une entreprise de lancement plus Starlink. C'est comme valoriser Internet en 1995 sur le marché du fax. Starship ne réduit pas le coût du kilo en orbite de 20%, il le divise par 100. Et chaque fois dans l'histoire qu'un coût d'infrastructure est divisé par 100, ce n'est pas le marché existant qui grossit, ce sont des industries entières qui naissent. Le coût du calcul divisé par 100 a donné Internet, le smartphone, l'IA. Le coût de l'orbite divisé par 100 va donner une économie spatiale complète.

Faisons la liste de ce qui devient rentable quand le kilo en orbite coûte le prix d'un billet d'avion. Les data centers orbitaux, avec énergie solaire continue et refroidissement gratuit, au moment exact où l'IA fait exploser la demande énergétique terrestre. La fabrication en microgravité de semi-conducteurs, de fibres optiques, d'organes imprimés impossibles à produire sous gravité. Le tourisme orbital de masse, puis les hôtels lunaires, qui passeront du fantasme au business plan exactement comme la croisière de luxe au 20ème siècle. Le transport point à point terrestre, Paris-Tokyo en 40 minutes. L'industrie minière des astéroïdes, dont un seul corps de classe M contient plus de métaux que tout ce que l'humanité a extrait depuis le néolithique. Et Mars en ligne de mire, pas comme destination touristique, mais comme le plus grand projet d'infrastructure jamais entrepris, avec tout ce que ça implique de demande en énergie, matériaux, robotique, IA.

SpaceX ne participera pas à ces marchés. SpaceX possède le péage d'entrée de tous ces marchés. C'est AWS, mais pour la civilisation. Apple vaut 3 500 milliards en vendant des rectangles de verre sur une seule planète. Le premier monopole d'accès à une frontière infinie à 30 ou 50 trillions dans 5 ans, ce n'est pas de l'exubérance, c'est une simple règle de trois sur l'expansion du marché adressable.

Et maintenant, la partie que je préfère. Ce futur n'a pas besoin de bureaucrates. Il n'y a pas de comité consultatif en orbite. Pas de commission Théodule sur Mars. Chaque dollar de cette nouvelle économie sera créé par des ingénieurs, des techniciens, des soudeurs, des pilotes, des entrepreneurs. Les diplômés en gestion de la norme vont devoir apprendre un métier utile, et franchement, c'est une excellente nouvelle pour eux aussi : construire est infiniment plus fun que contrôler.

Parce que c'est ça, le vrai signal d'aujourd'hui. Pendant 50 ans on nous a vendu un futur rétréci : moins d'énergie, moins d'enfants, moins d'ambition, gérer le déclin proprement. Et là, d'un coup, le plus gros actif financier du monde est un pari sur l'abondance, l'expansion et l'aventure. Le pessimisme vient de passer en position vendeuse sur lui-même.

Le futur sera méga fun. Il y aura des hôtels avec vue sur la Terre, des honeymoons en orbite, des gamins qui diront "papa, c'était comment avant les fusées réutilisables" comme on dit "c'était comment avant Internet". Et quelque part dans les années 2030, un humain marchera sur Mars en livestream devant 5 milliards de personnes, et ce jour-là plus personne ne se souviendra du nom d'un seul de ses détracteurs.

Achetez de l'optimisme. C'est encore sous-valorisé.

[Thomas A. Smith @tacsmith]

The Rule of Law and the States Revisited: The Guarantee Clause After Rucho and Moore https://t.co/2cRJUrnE8A

[Imtiaz Mahmood @ImtiazMadmood]

11, 12, and 14 years old.

Raped for days by more than 20 Pakistani immigrants.

Tortured—one had her tongue nailed to the wall to keep her still while they raped her.

The police ridiculed, insulted, and ignored them.

The feminists turned the other way.

If it hadn't been for Elon Musk, who publicly shared the trial testimonies, sparking outrage from Reform UK and internal investigations, no one would have known anything.

You're not angry enough.

- @babetta123

[Thomas A. Smith @tacsmith]

Claude is a miracle. A super-encyclopedia that talks back to you, teaches you. High level physics if you want. Anybody. I'm a boomer with fond memories of the World Book my dad bought. Claude (and the other AI's) are even better.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: FBI arrests senior CIA official after uncovering over $40 million in gold bars & $2 million in cash at his Virginia home.

[Adam Huntington @Adventuring_RE]

@CityofSanDiego is facing bankruptcy because of rampant fraud at City Hall connected to a massive web of corruption and NGO’s.

If we had an honest media and law enforcement environment… we would see serious headlines and investigations.

[Thomas A. Smith @tacsmith]

@Tendar Bh
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[Thomas A. Smith @tacsmith]

The Dodgers are cursed looks like.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸 Trevor Bauer was getting treatment for back spasms in Scottsdale when someone T-boned his $600,000 McLaren 765LT at a 45mph intersection.

The car spun, jumped a curb, and slammed into a pole. Bauer climbed out through the passenger side, looked at the wreckage, and said: "Dude, what the f**k?" Nobody was hurt. The McLaren is cooked.

This is also his second totaled McLaren. In 2019 a truck tire flew off a highway and landed directly on his parked 650S.

Bro needs to switch brands.

[Greg Lukianoff @glukianoff]

Larry Bushart spent 37 days in jail for posting a meme on Facebook.

I’ve been doing this work for 25 years, and I can honestly say this is the worst First Amendment case I’ve ever seen.

Not because Larry threatened anyone. He didn’t. Not because he committed violence. He didn’t. Not because this was a close call. It wasn’t.

He posted a political meme — the kind of thing millions of Americans do every day — and local officials decided to treat it like a crime.

And because they had badges, prosecutors, jail cells, and the terrifying machinery of the state behind them, they got away with it for 37 days.

Larry is a retired police officer and National Guard veteran. The meme he shared quoted Donald Trump’s “we have to get over it” comment after a 2024 Iowa school shooting. Whatever you think of Trump, the meme was plainly political commentary. Perry County officials knew what it referred to. They knew it wasn’t a threat against a Tennessee school.

They arrested him anyway.

In the middle of the night.

They set his bond at $2 million.

He lost his job. He missed family milestones. He sat in jail for more than a month before the charges finally collapsed — because, of course, there was no crime here.

Today, @theFIREorg secured a measure of justice: Perry County agreed to pay Larry Bushart $835,000 for violating his constitutional rights.

This case should scare the hell out of people across the political spectrum.

Because if the government can jail you for a meme by pretending not to understand obvious political commentary, your rights are only as secure as the good faith of the most authoritarian official in your town.

That is exactly why we have the First Amendment. Not for speech everyone likes. Not for opinions that flatter the powerful. Not for the bland, safe, committee-approved stuff.

It exists for moments when fear, outrage, politics, and authority all line up and say: “Surely this is the exception.”

No. It isn’t.

I’m incredibly proud of @theFIREorg’s legal team. And I’m even prouder of Larry Bushart for refusing to let the government get away with treating his constitutional rights like a suggestion.

But despite the correct verdict, I'll probably always get angry every time I think of this case.

Let’s make this the last time anyone in America is arrested — let alone thrown in jail — for a meme.

Celebrate your independence. Defend your First Amendment.

https://t.co/7ADQTxeHsL

[The Global Warming Policy Foundation @GWPF_org]

"Even if you haven't heard of it, you've certainly heard of its results."

With thousands of academic papers now called into question, @RogerPielkeJr breaks down what it means for climate science that the UN's IPCC has deemed scenario RCP8.5 "implausible."

View the full podcast below:👇

[Thomas A. Smith @tacsmith]

@clashreport I have an interesting story about the CCP (probably) reaching out to this university professor.

[Richard Grenell @RichardGrenell]

Carl Demaio deserves enormous credit for getting the voter ID initiative on the California ballot.

He was relentless.
He was focused for a very long time.

We all must now support this initiative to pass voter ID in America’s largest state.

This is an incredible moment for not just California, but for America.

We need national money for this initiative.

Changing California changes Washington, DC.

[Xi Van Fleet @XVanFleet]

@mattvanswol @OccupyLibraries We will never win the war against Communism as long as we let Communists run our educational system!

[Thomas A. Smith @tacsmith]

@theblaze That Trump is a class act.

[Thomas A. Smith @tacsmith]

@Not_the_Bee Well that's just unkind. True, but unkind.

[Thomas A. Smith @tacsmith]

@MarketWatch Invest in tech and forget about it.

[Nick shirley @nickshirleyy]

🚨 Exposing California's corrupt "Stop Nick Shirley Act", instead of going after the fraudsters California is now going after the people exposing the fraud.

This bill AB 2624 will:
- Criminalize journalists with misdemeanors, $10,000 fines, imprisonment, and content takedown
- Let immigrant based NGOs' funding be confidential
- Take away freedom of the press from journalists
- Protect any "immigration support services" information from being public (healthcare, legal services, etc)

This bill was created by the Attorney General's WIFE Mia Bonta to stop fraud from being exposed. Please like and share this video everywhere! By trying to silence and intimidate journalists, they are trying to hide the truth from you. EXPOSE ALL THE FRAUD.

[Jason Kenney 🇨🇦🇺🇦🇮🇱 @jkenney]

Lots of weird takes on the Hungarian election result from both left and right here.

Peter Magyar is a socially conservative immigration restrictionist who wants to cut taxes and double the defence budget. He criticized Orban for admitting too many guest workers, and wants to increase Hungary's already generous pro-natal incentives.

On virtually every issue, his platform is well to the right of centre, by European standards.

His foreign policy is to end Orban's alliance with Putin, remove the Hungarian veto on EU loans to Ukraine, normalize relations with the European Union while opposing more Euro integration, and strengthen relations with Eastern Europe's anti-Russian governments, e.g. Poland.

His election was not a sudden shift to the left, but a rejection of Orban's corruption, the failure of his interventionist / statist economic policies, and the humiliation of his relationship with Putin.

[Thomas A. Smith @tacsmith]

@walterkirn Sounds like a real gentleman.

[Milei in English - Official Account @jmilei_english]

My take on the UN: It is SOCIALIST MADNESS to believe that 87 bureaucrats can manage the lives of 8 billion people. We will not accept their agenda.