The greatest investor you've never heard of was destroyed by being right.
Julian Robertson ran Tiger Management. From 1980 to 1998, he compounded at 31.7% per year. The best record on Wall Street. He turned $8 million into $22 billion.
Then he looked at the dot-com bubble and called it exactly what it was: an irrational Ponzi scheme. Companies with no earnings at impossible valuations. He refused to play.
He was completely right.
And it nearly destroyed him.
Tiger lost 4% in 1998 and 19% in 1999 while tech stocks doubled. His investors revolted. At the 1999 annual meeting, the people he'd made rich for two decades screamed at him. Money fled. AUM collapsed from $22 billion to $6.5 billion.
In March 2000, he gave up. He returned all outside capital and closed the fund, writing that he could no longer operate in "a market which I frankly do not understand."
The Nasdaq peaked that same month.
The exact month.
The market waited for the one man who saw it clearly to leave the building, and then it collapsed.
His final portfolio, run with his own money from 2000 to 2006, returned 120% while the S&P 500 returned -7%.
He was right about everything. His investors never saw a dollar of it.
Here's the lesson that matters today.
You are not rewarded for being right about a bubble. You are rewarded for surviving it. Those are completely different skills.
The investor who shorts the mania gets carried out. The investor who simply refuses to overpay, keeps buying quality, and waits, gets to be standing there when the vindication finally arrives.
Don't try to call the top.
Just don't be the one holding the most expensive stocks when somebody else does.
1.1. Question 28: What happened 1973 and 1974 when your investment firm lost over half?
Charlie: Oh, that’s very simple. That’s very easy. That’s a good lesson. That’s a good question. What happened is the value of my partnership where I was running, went down by 50% in one year. Now the market went down by 40% or something. It was a once in 30 year recession. I mean monopoly newspapers are selling at 3 or 4 times earnings. At the bottom tick, I was down from the peak, 50%. You’re right about that. That has happened to me 3 times in my Berkshire stock.
so I regard it as part of manhood. If you’re going to be in this game for the long pull, which is the way to do it, you better be able to handle a 50% decline without fussing too much about it. And so my lesson to all of you is conduct your life so that you can handle the 50% decline with aplomb and grace. Don’t try to avoid it. (applause) It will come. In fact I would say if it doesn’t come, you’re not being aggressive enough.
1.2.
“I regard it as a part of manhood. If you’re going to be in this game for the long haul which is the way to do it. You better be able to handle a 50% decline without fussing too much. Conduct your life so you can handle a 50% decline with aplomb and grace. Don’t try to avoid it. It will come. And if it doesn’t come I’d say your not being aggressive enough”.
Life is competitive. Some men compete at work, money, women, sport. Doesn’t matter the arena. No man should judge another for how he chooses to compete.
New Zealand is just one crumb on the map, one crumb ain't a lot
You happy with that piece, I'm gon' need that pie
To satisfy my thirst, pacify my greed
For blood, money, and power
Wake up eat a banana split
Do some work then eat a banana split
Go watch a movie then eat a banana split
Go for a walk then eat a banana split
Talk to your mother then eat a banana split
The world needs higher consumption of Bananas Splits
One day I’ll buy @TipTopNZ, @WhittakersNZ and L&P off @CocaCola I know Whittaker’s is already kiwi-owned I’d just love to own it too. Tip Top and L&P make most of their profits in NZ, so those brands belong in kiwi hands. Just give me 40 years to build up the capital.