Takes By A

Markets and current events — and the occasional deep dive

[Takes By A @takesbya]

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What I'm watching in the US Economy right now:

The rolling correlation between S&P 500 returns and 10-year Treasury yields — plotted against consumer inflation expectations going back to 1962.

ZIRP is finally falling into the rear view, and what I want to look out for 🧵.

[Takes By A @takesbya]

@CBSNews This is insidious. This attack on iran and subsequent “peace deal” puts the US in a strictly worse position. The media is too scared of trump to put it in plain english.

[Takes By A @takesbya]

@ns123abc All of this, and now reports that Claude API is slow and getting hammered. My guess is that they can’t handle the compute demand, and what’s worse is that they’re in no position to lower prices.

[Takes By A @takesbya]

@HormuzLetter I’m curious what the US actually got out of this other than a big military bill, elevated inflation, and an angry voter base.

[Kimberley A. Martin @ByKimberleyA]

Cops mistook Tyler Kolek for a fan 😩 #alwaysknicks

[Takes By A @takesbya]

Index membership (e.g. joining Nasdaq-100) used to have limits on how much the company can effectively hold. This makes it so that no matter how much the public “buys” the stock, they’ll have insufficient voting rights. They are basically allowing Musk to have control of everyone’s future.

[Takes By A @takesbya]

@FT Seems more like coordinated PR than anything

[Takes By A @takesbya]

@JonhernandezIA It’s the kind of thing people would say when they don’t actually think the AI is getting better.

[Takes By A @takesbya]

@BusinessInsider Easy to say. Let’s see what he actually does.

[Takes By A @takesbya]

@VraserX A fresh take — completely agree.

[Takes By A @takesbya]

This is bad and I’m not optimistic we can easily fix it. Left alone, we need to look at the aging populations of Japan and China as examples. Stunted economic activity means lower birth rates. Added kicker that US social security is drying up, health insurance is privatized, and social infrastructure is weak.

[Takes By A @takesbya]

@CBSNews Job market is super strong. Inflation is lingering. If the Kevin Warsh doesn’t hike rates, the Fed is officially no longer credible. Last time we didn’t trust the Fed to keep inflation down, we had back to back recessions and 20 years of a sideways equities market.

[Takes By A @takesbya]

@ABC Sudden IPO craze, expected rate hikes, heavy stock sell off. Market sentiment is rotating, and the appetite for $SPCX will set the tone for Anthropic and OpenAI. $GOOGL coming out ahead again here — they’ve already secured their raise.

[Takes By A @takesbya]

This is real. Companies are forcing it down everyone’s throats. Negatively public perception and skyrocketing compute costs says to me that the 5 year horizon for the compute infrastructure might be too far out. What happens if AI just settles into a “useful tool” and not replacement?

[Takes By A @takesbya]

@BusinessInsider $GOOGL just did one of its biggest secondary stock sales of $85bb. Insiders are pretty good at selling high and buying low. Take: the public just funded the deal.

[Takes By A @takesbya]

@Rainmaker1973 Math education fell for the worse with COVID as it is; AI cheating in schools will cripple the American STEM education system. We should ban AI for people under 18; it is already leading to debilitated critical thinking skills in young adults.

[Takes By A @takesbya]

@jenzhuscott The AI bottleneck now isn’t “how much can we output.” It’s “how much can we actually care about.” This shows that in amazing fashion; in some dimensions, there’s a limit in how much HUMANS keep top of mind.

[Takes By A @takesbya]

@OncoAdvLukas @cnnbrk This + extended SOH closure is a recipe for global inflation and global rate rises. Cost of capital could go through the roof with nowhere to hide, hinging the growth of the world economy on this massive AI bet.

[Takes By A @takesbya]

@billionairegap @CNN Totally agree. I think this is a tipping point in market sentiment. Bond prices and stock prices moving in the same direction is not a good sign — indication of serious inflation risk. Please look at my thread on this and lmk what you think!

[Takes By A @takesbya]

[1/7]
What I'm watching in the US Economy right now:

The rolling correlation between S&P 500 returns and 10-year Treasury yields — plotted against consumer inflation expectations going back to 1962.

ZIRP is finally falling into the rear view, and what I want to look out for 🧵.

[Takes By A @takesbya]

@cnnbrk This

[Takes By A @takesbya]

[1/7]
What I'm watching in the US Economy right now:

The rolling correlation between S&P 500 returns and 10-year Treasury yields — plotted against consumer inflation expectations going back to 1962.

ZIRP is finally falling into the rear view, and what I want to look out for 🧵.

[Takes By A @takesbya]

@cnnbrk This is a major move today and is probably the beginning of turning market sentiment. This kind of inflation anxiety and equity / bond correlation is a major red flag. See this post for a deep dive; we’re talking about a rates and inflation regime not seen since the 80’s.