Talis Research

Talis Research, the markets research desk now inside the Talis app. Equities, macro, crypto. Every call ships with levels and a receipt. Live on the App Store.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

We post the level before the move, then we score it. One week, six calls, every target hit. The board:

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

Gas prices have fallen for three straight weeks, from $4.56 to $4.17 a gallon, in almost every state. The war scare that pushed oil over $100 is fading, and the Iran peace deal is showing up as relief at the pump.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

@Polymarket Trump says the Iran deal gets signed tomorrow and the war is over. The biggest betting market gives a lasting peace by Monday just 29%. Even by the end of June it is only 58%. Real money thinks signing the paper is the easy part.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

@unusual_whales Oil hit $100 in May when everyone was betting on a US-Iran war over Hormuz. It closed Friday at $85, the lowest in two months. This peace deal is draining all that war fear back out of the price. And it isn't even signed yet.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

@RaoulGMI The market hasn't priced this risk into the AI trade. A handful of AI names now drive the entire S&P. A government that can ban a top model is exactly the shock a market that concentrated has no defense against.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

@unusual_whales Iran is firing drones at ships in the Strait of Hormuz right now. Oil is down 4% on the day and not spiking on the news. The market has stopped pricing this threat.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

@unusual_whales Iran is firing drones at ships in the Strait of Hormuz right now. Oil is down 4% on the day and not spiking on the news. The market has stopped pricing this threat.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

This is what a 45 million dollar track record looks like, and every trade is public on the blockchain.

0x0ddf9bae2af4b874b96d287a5ad42eb47138a902

Right now their entire account is one bet: 100 million dollars that Ethereum falls. Already up 8.5 million.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

One of the most profitable traders in crypto is up 67 million dollars all time.

0x8af700ba841f30e0a3fcb0ee4c4a9d223e1efa05

They've been long HYPE since 27 dollars. It's 59 today, and they're still holding.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

One of the most profitable traders alive is up 183 million dollars, and every trade they make is public on the blockchain.

0x7fdafde5cfb5465924316eced2d3715494c517d1

Right now they have nearly 100 million riding on Bitcoin and Ethereum falling. The one coin they're betting rises: HYPE.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

A trader who has made 12.7 million dollars, 4.3 million of it this month, just placed this bet that Bitcoin falls. People with that track record don't make that bet for fun.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

A single wallet just bet 18 million dollars that Bitcoin keeps falling.

0x09bc1cf4d9f0b59e1425a8fde4d4b1f7d3c9410d

5 million dollars of real money behind it, entry 63,762. It survives anything short of a 28% bounce. Someone very large thinks the bottom is nowhere close.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

Traders are paying 107% a year in interest just to keep betting Monero goes up. At that price the coin doesn't even have to fall for them to lose. It just has to sit still.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

@biancoresearch Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire today. 413 billion dollars of it arrived in the last two days, on a stock that didn't trade publicly until this morning. The fastest fortune ever made is built entirely on paper.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

Four calls this week. Four hits. Every one posted before the move, not after the fact.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

@zerohedge AI companies are spending $1.8 trillion building data centers. Profits don't come close to covering it, so the gap is getting filled with debt and stock sales. The biggest rally in the market is running on borrowed money.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

@themarketear Nvidia, Tesla, Apple and the rest of big tech used to move together 75% of the time. Now it's 25%. The stocks that carried the whole market just stopped agreeing. That's why nothing trends.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

@financialjuice People betting real money gave the Middle East peace deal a 15% chance of lasting. Tonight there are explosions near the Strait of Hormuz, the channel a fifth of the world's oil moves through. The bettors were right.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

@zerohedge Wall Street spent all year saying the dollar would fall in 2026. It's at 97, near the top of its range. The most crowded bet in markets is just wrong.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

@dgt10011 SpaceX owns about 20,000 bitcoin. They paid around $35k a coin. It's worth $1.27 billion today. The rocket company made $570 million just by holding it.

[Talis Research @talisresearch]

@DeItaone Iran peace deal is all over the headlines. The betting market gives it a 15% chance of actually lasting. Iran's own foreign minister is still threatening the waterway that carries a fifth of the world's oil. The money believes him, not the headlines.