Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦

Book aficionado / Writer of nonsense / Severe weather enthusiast / Administrative debacle / Connoisseur of dark humour

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

@cyclonicwx Isn't there supposed to be a recon flight into Polo? I thought it was supposed to leave an hour ago?

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

With each subsequent pass, #Polo's est pressure is slowly rising while max winds slowly fall. The eye has also cooled somewhat with less of the ocean visible from satellite imagery.

Some of this is EWRC-related, but some may be upwelling.

Polo peaked ~1 hr before RECON began.

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

@cyclonicwx I think we missed the peak. NE eyewall shows maybe a developing secondary wind max and convection has warmed a bit.

Still though. Wow.

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

#Polo's CDO looks slightly warmer and more asymmetrical. Potentially peaked ~1 hour ago and we missed it because of a RECON mechanical issue. This seems to happen a fair bit.

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

RECON aborted. Disappointing. #polo

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

When does recon leave for #polo? I thought it was 45 mins ago....

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

@TSN_Sports The @TorontoArgos should just fold the franchise if they lose to Ottawa.

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

I'm just going to leave this here.... #Melissa

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

Sonde data for #Melissa has 893mb. Officially stronger than Rita and Milton.

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

Sonde needed to confirm, but #Melissa's now in the upper handful of ATL hurricanes. XTRAP pressure probably around 889-890. Sonde will likely find something around 894-896.

I can't wait for a NE eyewall sample.

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

Two HHs made center passes on #Melissa just now. One recorded 902mb. The other recorded 909mb. I suspect the 909mb is accurate, but we'll see!

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

First RECON pass tonight and #Melissa's winds appear slightly weaker at flight level. Pressure may also be up a bit.

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

#Melissa is still drifting west. She's out of the cone now. A north turn should have happened already.

Any experts wanna weigh in?

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

The 210-kt aloft wind reading in #Melissa from today's RECON appears to have been the highest such recording at a significant level by a HH aircraft in the ATL basin.

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

@JeremyDeHartWX Phenomenal.

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

This sonde data is obscene. 210 kts maybe 130m ASL. #Melissa

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

@MatheusWR There is still some ML shear coming in under the outflow layer. You can see warmer cloud tops on the west side. Could be some dry air forcing convection in the eyewall. Tough to tell.

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

@BIGNUT291 2000z. 4pm EST.

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

Next RECON flight into #Melissa is late getting off the tarmac.

[Cyclone Jones 🇨🇦 @talkw3rds]

#Melissa's latest VDM has an eye 8nm across. Her core has shrunk significantly.

A smaller core means greater energy efficiency and less overall energy needed to intensify.