I know you don't like to discuss exactly how much margin you use, but I wonder if it would be helpful to give some sense of calibration. For example, if 0 is fully deployed but with no margin use, and 100 is max margin use up to margin call, how much had you trimmed before the June 5th selloff, and how much are you currently holding back?
@alojohhardcore Wow, this is a work of art. Obviously just starting to dig into it, but it synthesizes so much information that used to be scattered in various places, now in a visually intuitive way. Design team also did a great job. Look forward to watching the masterclass videos.
I can only share what I've done, and of course, the decision today is not the same as it would have been 1 or 2 or 3 months ago. And you also don't have to do it all at once.
When I joined as an AJ subscriber just a few months ago, I was 50% TSLA. I've studied a lot of AJ's research and posts, and decided to exit in several large tranches over the past few months (average sale price in low $400s), to buy into new opportunities as they presented themselves in HC channel.
Do I owe a large tax bill this year for selling? Yes, but I will tell you that with each tranch I sold, I experienced a sense of relief. As of earlier this week, I still had a 10% TSLA allocation of my lowest cost basis shares. My original plan was to try to do a collar at a local top, and then ride it out through SX IPO, but after the earnings print this week, I decided to sell the rest. So now I have zero TSLA and couldn't be happier. If you are willing to put in the work and study AJ's research and be an active investor, there are plenty of other opportunities.
@alojohhardcore@dtrestrail $SATS (EchoStar) owns about 2.8% of SpaceX. At a $2T valuation, that is worth $56B. The market cap of $SATS today is $39B, which is already up ~30% from recent lows. Would this be a good potential proxy play?
Thank you for this snapshot. My allocation is very similar. Do you have an estimate of how much margin/leverage you are currently using?
I'm currently at about 1.4-1.5x leverage. (I use both margin and options to create this leverage, as I have limitations on margin use in retirement accounts.)
It is not necessary to update everything when there is a new share price. If you just do the heavy duty calculations once overnight, with daily updated earnings, and daily updated SP (e.g. previous day closing price), that should be good enough.
And then on top of that, you would ideally have a lightweight overlay of the realtime SP, so you know where you are within the “static” corridor, which itself only updates once a day. And you could recalculate some key metrics in realtime (e.g. % to price target, with the price target itself only being updated once a day) based on its charge from the overnight snapshot. There are time-series database extensions which can make this calculation more efficient, without having to re-do the whole architecture.
@alojohhardcore@ExcitedFuturist When setting layers, do you generally take into account any technical analysis in a supportive role, e.g. major support and resistance, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, etc? “Chart phrenology” as you call it, but sometimes self fulfilling.
I struggled with this decision earlier this year, but decided to just bite the bullet and sell a majority of my TSLA shares. As a California resident, my long term CGT rate is >37%, and I probably won’t have an opportunity for tax rate arbitrage anytime soon. The alternative would have been to stay in and hedge and play the volatility with options, but it’s been just slow boring bleeding the past few months. With AJ‘s research, I trust I made the right decision and I’ve already learned so much in this channel.
@TeslaPLee@alojohhardcore I already used up all the losses I had to get to where I am now. Next step would be to sell lots from highest cost to lowest to minimize tax impact.