Tang

玄学&炒股

[Tang @tang2026]

中国古代“让他人代死，自己长命百岁”之神术
（连载一）

要不要写这篇文章，我犹豫了大半个月。怕有人学会了拿去实战，有伤天和，那我可要倒霉了。但是，案例是前辈书里的，由于时代变化，方法已不适用，所以我就放下了心来分享。

书里的案例是：五月份，路人麻子找玄学高手，求问自己的终身幸福。高手告诫麻子，九月十月有大凶事，不可出门...果然，九月有官差（政府）找麻子做事。麻子找个快递员代跑一趟，快递员中途应劫而死，麻子开开心心活下来了，大难不死还必有后福叻🤪

看似简简单单一个案例，我认为麻子找了高手反复测算，穷尽所有的可能性，最终才能自己长命百岁，找人代死成功。非常诡异的一个案例😔

这本书是实战案例，全是中国古代真实发生过的事。小中见大，古代王朝高手们的道（术），到了何等高超的境界

[Tang @tang2026]

这几天学风水，既看卫星图也出门转，玄学师父说这是中国道教学院压箱底的秘笈

真是惊到我了，没想到神州大地隐藏这么多秘密。网上从来没人提过的，我能透露一点点，有的风水格局非常凶狠，像一把枪顶着老百姓的脑门🤬

从计算机系统设计的角度，我不认为这是好格局。它也为未来之事埋下了祸根💩

[Tang @tang2026]

@bubbleboi 特别想知道Leopod的准确出生时间和地点，想推算一下他接下来的人生....可惜未见于新闻

[Tang @tang2026]

李新野的文章，一直犹豫要不要评论。这段时间弄玄学，我查看了古今中外几百个人的一生，算是知晓了天机，需守戒律不得泄漏

勉强评论一句吧，有些观点很犀利🤪（我只是吃完饭来网上看乐子的）

[東京浪人 @tokyosmallface]

李新野新作《大空头》，再来感受下雄鹰般的语言系统：
https://t.co/P32VtaCTID

[3X Long Labubu @labubu_trader]

Went through the FOMC and the two MAG7 earnings reports. My initial takes:

1/ Warsh came off “just talking without action". This press conference was a nightmare.

2s10s steepened because the bond market is pricing a loss of inflation control and potentially more hikes later. Fed credibility is now being questioned. wider breakevens + more long-end inflation premium and the credibility risk should be bullish for gold.

2/ The sharp move higher in the long end is a major headwind for anything relying on multiple expansion or profitless growth or high-PE semis, such as TSLA/SPCX.

The regime is getting reinforced: reward FCF, punish capex unless the revenue/EPS payoff is immediate.

3/ Microsoft delivered a perfect quarter. Cloud growth was extremely strong without a massive capex guide-up.

Combined with the FOMC, this should continue to favor hyperscalers as hyperscalers can self-fund the buildout.

4/ Neoclouds are mixed. Many still need debt, equity or customer prepayments to fund capex without hyperscaler-level recurring FCF. This is not great under the current macro regime.

$NBIS is the exception, as this earnings may prove that it belongs to the $MSFT group, the EBITDA would start inflecting hard.

5/ For semis, I think the real divergence is starting. Anything depending on multiple expansion or carrying a high P/E will face pressure from long-duration yields.

$NVDA is the obvious cash-flow monster and clear safe heaven.

6/ For memories, I’m cautious on DRAM/NAND after the run if stocks need both EPS revisions(capped by the more reasonable capex growth) and multiple expansion.

Within storage, I still think $WDC and $STX have the clearest long setups: higher margins, low competetion risk, zero concerns of capex exapnsion or production expansion. Unfortunately, they may continue to get dragged down by the broader memory sector.

[Tang @tang2026]

@626wilde 兄弟，我学会打卦了。你早就会了啊？？😂
这辈子见过最神奇的东东

[Tang @tang2026]

刚睡醒，群里全力做多了😂
跟上吃肉

[Frank trading @Franktradinglog]

I have a feeling that this week could be the final showdown between the bulls and the bears.
This Week’s Global Equity + Commodity Rotation Playbook As always, the pre-market roadmap is in the comments. Thank you!

[3X Long Labubu @labubu_trader]

Will be back to the US next week.

Talked to a few PMs during my trip in the last two weeks. I’d like to share some interesting findings:

Sentiment: Overall very panicked and confused.

Positioning:
1. Shanghai HFs are extremely long on memory names, partly due to the TRS restriction I mentioned a few weeks ago. They are quickly selling CN semis across the board and buying DRAM ETFs to lower margin pressure.
2. HK HFs are mixed and divided; bulls and bears are balanced.
3. US LOs are waiting—not about stock prices but still don’t believe LTAs can turn memory names from cyclical to growth valuations.
4. Macro HFs sold all of their memory/semi positions.

Interesting points from both sides:

Bulls:
1. Supply chain checks suggest prices and margins will remain higher for longer.
2. AI capex in 27/28 will grow much higher than most expected.
3. OAI/ATH’s ARR shows no signs of plateauing. Codex’s WAU is growing crazily right now.
4. Kimi K3’s tech report literally suggests every semi component is a bottleneck 😂
5. No macro risks; CPI/PPI much cooler.
6. Even if memory spot prices can’t go higher, these memory companies can do large buybacks or dividends to support the stock price.
7. OAI/ATH is hiring a large team of solution engineers to quickly build vertical solutions (finance/healthcare/legal) to find the next S-curve beyond coding.
8. Even if memory names fade, the entire semi sector will remain intact.

Bears:
1. Higher memory prices are not sustainable and will be demand destructive. Clients will push back on further price hikes, and even the government may step in to force massive production expansion.
2. Memory prices will peak in Q4.
3. No doubt on 27 capex, but 28 capex budgets are clouded.
4. Even if fundamentals are solid, the position is extremely crowded and Korean retailers’ leverage is a huge concern.
5. Even though CSPs’ capex planning is aggressive for 27, a large portion of deliveries will be delayed due to power supply constraints.
6. No intermediate story of fast AI application adoption like AI coding.
7. Higher prices and more LTAs during the upcycle can’t prove memory names aren’t cyclical anymore. We need to see resilience during the downcycle to prove that, like memory names keeping the lower bound of margins in a downturn.
8. Memory is the core of AI: if traded memory dies, then everything dies.
9. Memory has no difference vs. other commodities such as silver, oil, or lithium carbonate. When they peak, their narrative and fundamentals all look fucking good 😄

[Tang @tang2026]

最近股市看的少，弄玄学去了。前些天potfolio利润回撤多，渐渐跑了。中长线趋势交易者最害怕🐒市，大部分亏损都在这个阶段，没有明确的趋势，反复骗进去杀。炒股真是一门pain business，但是，能一直活下来就好😎

[Tang @tang2026]

有件秘密犹豫要不要提，怕号被人盯上，但我是程序员，总想顽皮一下😂。炒股的兄弟们应该有疑惑，中国与台湾的局势如此紧张，比如CIA警告Tim cook说2023年战争爆发，可最懂中国的日本再军事化极为缓慢，原因是什么？？

原先的说辞是，二战后美国对日本军事阉割很彻底，日本民主体制启动比较慢，我也一直相信的咯。直到半个月前，师父教了我推算战争国运的办法和工具（暂不包含经济，创新等）。

我们推算了亚洲主要国家的战争国运，需要采集样本点-军队。采集反向的样本点-该国敌对的人。对所有样本点推算来获取较为准确的结果。

然后，我忽然想明白日本再军事化缓慢的原因了。就是，日本的占卜/占星协会学会（皇室高层专用），早几十年就推算好了，他们大概知道下一次惨烈的战争爆发时间，波及范围，谁输谁赢（见仁见智）

这应该是很高层的秘密了，在网上从来没人提过的，好了兄弟们，我也点到为止了😂

[Frank trading @Franktradinglog]

韩国人已经彻底投降
buy dram here

[Pike时政财经分析 @BigbirdflyChan]

对冲基金这波操作把散户玩的明明白白，趁着半导体的拥挤仓位，你们在割肉，他们在抄底。

[3X Long Labubu @labubu_trader]

also bought solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 and $DRAM in US stock market.
Same price target.