It’s June 2nd and the Ag markets feel like they are in post harvest holiday mode. Why?
-USDA gave us Fudged new crop balance sheets once they realized
They didn’t have the $$$ for direct farmer payments.
-Fake policy rumors day after day get traded like they are real no matter how many times they get recirculated.
-price movement, open interest, cash, and spreads have zero correlation to MM positions or DVE.
-seasonals say sell
End of the day what’s all this add up
To? Lack of fundamental spec participation. No one is willing to put risk capital into a market controlled by $$$ flow only.
@Grantst13@GGunthorp Love the idea but unfortunately will not happen. 2008-2013 tore out a lot of fence. Then when it didn’t work it went into CRP. Plus it is “easier” for most to borrow money and plant a crop that will lose money than adapt. Just my backyard view
@VanceCrowe I agree 100% In my little corner of the world CRP (and ethanol) changed the landscape. In a 5 mile radius almost every farm had cattle. Now you can count the number on 1 hand. We now have around 2k acres of public land and crp that was all put in place in the last 20 years or so
Bro. Sign up or don’t but this is from 12/27/22 the open tonite was 15.365 or two ticks off. That’s from 55 days in the past. Tell me if you want a #cheatsheet on market structure. Sign up for free for 30 days. https://t.co/oyy9iQTcEV
@donkrice@Badgerswimr I know you’re asking @Badgerswimr opinion but from personal experience I’m an aggressive forward sales farmer. I don’t have much on farm storage and like the flexibility of hedging/reownership in brokerage acct. If you make a sale don’t look back trade it don’t marry it
@Badgerswimr@patton_devin Thank you. Thanks to you @Badgerswimr and @gfy_ag. Different ways to trade your crop as a farmer whether it be from a hedge or reownership standpoint. Options are cheap!
@patton_devin@Badgerswimr Several ways to skin a cat or manage price risk. Most farmers are not comfortable using their brokerage acct to its full extent because they see the fluctuations in real time. All farmers should have a scoreboard with real time price of what they have in the bin.
@patton_devin@Badgerswimr I like selling cash beans and paying down debt (especially in this higher interest rate environment). Then it gives you the flexibility to trade in either direction depending on the market movement. I believe @Badgerswimr says “trade it don’t marry it”.