My plan: bid $0.00535–0.00550, SL $0.00505, T1 $0.00610 (~1.8R), T2 $0.00650 (~2.9R). A 4H close back above $0.00612 reopens $0.0065–0.0068. Lose $0.0051 and $0.0047–0.0049 is next. Where are you buying?
$PUMP $0.00580, -9% today. Doubled from $0.0034 to $0.0068 in 18 days, then lost the $0.0061–0.0068 range.
Buy zone $0.00535–0.00550
Resistance $0.0060–0.0061
Invalidation: 4H close below $0.00510
Daily trend still up. 4H says wait. NFA.
The bid: https://t.co/pOMt8AMvcW routes ~50% of revenue into buy-and-burn. About 170B PUMP (17% of supply) is gone, at ~$1–1.5M a day. The catch: team + investors unlock ~6.9B PUMP a month, more than the ~5.8B/month the burn removes at the Oct 4 pace. Next release: ~Oct 12.
A 4H close back above $2,651 flips the old floor and opens $2,690–2,710. A 4H close below $2,470 kills the long and points to the mid-Sep base at $2,358–2,392.
$ETH $2,577 after losing its $2,628 range floor on Oct 7.
Support $2,499–2,536 (Oct 7 low + 1D EMA50)
Resistance $2,628–2,651 (old floor)
Plan: bid $2,505–2,535, SL $2,465, TP $2,628 / $2,690.
Buy the level, not the bounce. NFA.
Why it broke: 6 straight days of spot ETH ETF outflows ($201.9M on Oct 6 alone) and $233M of liquidations, mostly longs. Overnight Fed minutes: most officials see another hike by year-end.
$ZEC $1,320, boxed in $1,271–1,384 since Oct 3.
Buy zone $1,278–1,300
Resistance $1,372–1,384
Invalidation: 4H close below $1,265
Breakout only on a 4H close above $1,384. Buy the retest, don't chase.
Catalysts: NU7 went live on testnet Oct 4 (25s blocks, 60% of fees into a reserve). Devs make the mainnet call Oct 20, target Nov 5. Winklevoss also filed a spot ZEC ETF (WINK, 0.25% fee) on Oct 6.
$ONDO $0.472. Lost the $0.479–0.513 box it held since Oct 3.
Buy zone $0.457–0.464
Resistance $0.479–0.494
Invalidation: 4H close below $0.455
Old floor is now the ceiling. I buy the retest, not the bounce.
The story is busy: BlackRock-modeled portfolios launched Sep 24 (ONDO +25% that day), seven portfolios by Oct 1, and Private Markets (pre-IPO AI notes) announced Oct 6. Price still stalled at $0.513.
$BTC $85,533, sitting on the 4H EMA20 inside a $84,980–86,994 range.
S1 $84,980–85,180
R1 $86,500–86,994
Breakout only on a 4H close above $86,994. Invalidation: 1D close below $82,500.
Buy the retest, don't chase.
The bull story is the Nov 22 holder gala (top 185 wallets, scored through Nov 12). A 4H close above $1.920 opens $1.996–2.020. Lose $1.742 and $1.62–1.67 is next. Where are you buying?
$TRUMP $1.854. Lost the $1.996–2.091 range it held since Oct 3 and wicked to $1.764, the lowest since Aug 21.
Buy zone $1.770–1.800
Resistance $1.904–1.920
Invalidation: 4H close below $1.742
4H RSI at 19. A bounce is likely, but the trend is still down.
Why it hit so hard: BTC slipped under $84K as oil jumped above $101 on Iran tanker attacks, and $547M got liquidated in 24h. On top of that, team-linked wallets have sent about 81.9M TRUMP to exchanges in 8 months, with about 718M still held.
A 4H close above $86,994 opens $87,200–87,400 (Sep 22 / Oct 2 swing highs). Lose $84,980 and the late-Sept base at $82,550–83,000 is next. Follow for levels.
Catalysts: FOMC minutes (Sep 15–16 meeting) land today at 2PM ET. September CPI is Oct 14. Range edges can get wicked before either one resolves anything.