Taps Coogan

Publisher of the dormant site 'The Sounding Line.' The universe is our canvas

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

EVs, autonomy, and China are going to cause massive consolidation in the auto industry

https://t.co/xJicxPxX40

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

Remarkably true

[Andrew Kaczynski @KFILE]

All search has been ruined. Google date search hasn't worked in a decade, Facebook search doesn't work, YouTube removed sort by updated and search strings.

https://t.co/1GWXUESki0

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

Women had up to 1-in-8 lifetime mortality from child birth in pre-modern times. Families spent 60%+ of income on food. ~80% of kids in orphanages had living parents who couldn't support them. Average work weeks were ~70 hours. Children have never been about lifestyle maximizing

[David Shapiro (L/0) @DaveShapi]

I think birth rates falling happen in large part because it takes a certain level of hubris and naivete to think "oh yeah, my health, energy, and income will definitely be stable enough to care for another human for the next twenty years"

A delusional belief that most people have been disabused of by their 30s. And that kind of stability only comes back in your 40s or later, and by then it's too late for most people.

My sister in law got pregnant at 17 and basically has done the children thing and is more focusing on education and money. But like, you kinda have to be a stupid teenager to have children in this world.

And she's really happy with this outcome btw. She's like hell yeah, I did the hard part when I was much younger, now he's self sufficient and I can focus on myself.

[More Births @MoreBirths]

An extraordinary graphic showing what will happen in Poland if fertility rates simply stay where they are. Most of the developed world is on a trajectory of population collapse similar to this.

Nothing matters more than turning around birthrate decline.

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

Always 2 years away

https://t.co/yJHxokLQ5i

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

And will be there response this time?

[Clash Report @clashreport]

WATCH: Iran hit Bahrain with an intense attack tonight.

Multiple air defense missiles reportedly malfunctioned during interception.

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

And yet they don't retaliate?

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Kuwait Army:

"Kuwait’s air defenses are currently intercepting hostile drone attacks following the treacherous Iranian aggression.

The General Staff of the Kuwaiti Armed Forces notes that any explosions heard are the result of air defense systems intercepting the hostile attacks.

The public is urged to follow all security and safety instructions issued by the relevant authorities."

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

Its easier to sound smart being bearish

[Gab @GabGrowth]

It’s a shame how many perma bears are being minted as we speak.

Might be an unpopular opinion, but being constantly bearish is the worst position to take for someone trying to get wealthy from the markets.

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

The market is right to be skeptical, but having watched Oracle $ORCL waste a decade on buybacks and a capital-light nonsense, it's still great to see them make some truely big & risky bets

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

The extra problem for medical insurance is that cars and homes have values set by a free market. Repair costs can't exceed that limit or the car is 'totaled' and you just get a check. No analogy exists for medical insurance

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

The problem with insurance is that it's a cost-plus business. Yes, insurers compete on the premium they charge over the cost of the underlying medical/auto/home service, but they collectively want the underlying service to be maximally expensive, as long as it's that way for all

[Zack Kanter @zackkanter]

This is correct. The ACA mandated that insurers spend 80% of premiums on patient care –sounds nice, but it capped theoretical profit at 20% (assuming zero costs). The only way for them to make more profit is for premiums to go up, which happens when more claims are paid.

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

Not that any of this is wrong, but TFR is quite a statistical abstraction. It doesn't properly account for the increasing fertility of women at older ages. Actual fertility for women exiting child bearing years remains meaningfully higher than TFR, though it is declining

[Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil]

'Replacement rate' fertility is frequently believed to be 2.1.

But the rate actually varies based on mortality and sex ratios at birth.

So, I've gone and recalculated the rates for every country with available data. Have a look:

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

The peculiar failure of Gulf States to even attempt to independently establish deterance until now is, as much as anything, why this keeps dragging out...

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Some Gulf countries are working Iran tonight.

Unclear who it is. But strikes are reported in multiple locations

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

EVs are all or nothing. When legacy autos make an EV, they just cannibalize existing sales with a car that requires a duplicative, expensive production/supply chain. Plus dealers hate selling them

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

It's mid 2026 and Tesla is still the only automaker outside of China that is consistently profitable on its EV sales

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

A lack of ships was perfectly bullish for prices two months ago...

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

Completely wrong take

Let me repeat: Arab countries are offering aggressive discounts because there are very few ships available to go back into Hormuz to pick up that oil and till they don’t unload their tanks they cannot restart crude oil production

This is not a oil glut

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

"Humphreys, from Bury St Edmunds, said: "I was willing to fight a champion put up by the DVLA, but it would have been a fight to the death.""

[LiorLefineder @lefineder]

Filing a court appeal for a minor traffic fine and requesting resolution through trial by combat.

[Taps Coogan @TapsCoogan]

The 1970s this is not. Oil production is more diversified, demand is more elastic, excess capacity exists (provided some time to respond to signals). Buyers have alternatives and don't need the headache

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

Iran ha a big oil problem 🛢️

🔸Over 58 million barrels of Iranian crude are floating at sea, more than 90% without a confirmed buyer

🔸China, Iran's largest customer, is running refiners at the lowest utilization in 9 years, Iranian imports have more than halved

🔸India is locked into Russian barrels, Europe won't touch it over insurance risk and fears US sanctions snap back

Iran rushed millions of barrels onto the market the moment access reopened.

The demand side never showed up.

Iran got its market access back. It didn't get its market back.