There is a first time for everything, but over the past 75 yrs, every time inflation has exceeded 4% and unemployment has been below 5%, the US economy has gone into recession within 2 years. Today, inflation is north of 6% and unemployment is south of 4%
Here is the yield change in the UST market over the past 3 months:
Two Year: Down 54 bp
Five Year: Down 83 bp
Ten Year: Down. 71 bp
Thirty Year: Down 59 bp
Fed Funds: Up 75 bp
Message seems clear.
Lots of US economic data including
Stronger than expected GDP growth at 2.9% (the consensus forecast was 2.6%);and
Another significant beat on weekly jobless claims (186,000 versus consensus of 205,000).
Overall, favorable news for the economy that will also attract Fed attention