Tascha

Markets and economy in the age of thinking machines. PhD macroeconomics. Angel investor.

[Tascha @TaschaLabs]

O1 pro: made simple error, thought about it for 79 seconds, finally came around to utter a reluctant "sorry".

Being capable of such complex reasoning at such high speed is indeed the trademark of a superior intelligence

[Tascha @TaschaLabs]

@HowardAulsbrook I think neither. Increased reverence to individuality of all forms is natural response to the fact that population growth is declining and society investing ever more resources into its individual members

[Tascha @TaschaLabs]

Because functioning well-adjusted agreeable persons with secure attachment are the true neurodivergents… if exists at all

[shaurya @shauseth]

literally everyone i meet calls themselves neurodivergent. what are we even diverging from at this point

[Tascha @TaschaLabs]

@gardo_martinez Posted on wrong account 😂

[Tascha @TaschaLabs]

Why so many recommending "The Lessons of History" on here?

This book is basically what happens when your grandpa recently took a pattern recognition class and proceeds to explain entire human civilization with the confidence and rigor of a horoscope reader.

[Tascha @TaschaLabs]

On large gap-down days, market becomes difficult to trade in either direction because of all the institutional cross-currents creating extreme chop. Just avoid those days all together. Your EV is likely negative. Not worth the stress.

Large gap up days don't have same problem.

[Tascha @TaschaLabs]

Seems true to any field—

Outsider sees magic.

Insider sees crude patcher-upper.

Marketing sells dream.

Reality is a mixed bag of all above.

[Tascha @TaschaLabs]

If you are actually good, then being “promoted” to management is like the most benign looking death trap ever.

[Tascha @TaschaLabs]

This, of course, assumes you have a viable strategy that you have carefully thought through in the first place. If that's the case, then it is more optimal to:
1. Complete the strategy validation through extensive paper trading at full size
2. Use paper trading to identify and resolve any technical or operational issues
3. Once you're ready to trade the complete strategy, deploy it with full size live.

[Tascha @TaschaLabs]

Why "starting small and working your way up" may not be optimal when deploying new trading strategy.

The temptation to scale up gradually feels safer. The fear of large, immediate losses and the need to "get comfortable" make this approach seem responsible.

However...

[Tascha @TaschaLabs]

By deploying at full size immediately, you face the complete challenge upfront, allowing you to focus entirely on adapting to the strategy's true characteristics rather than managing an artificial scaling process. This approach, while potentially more stressful initially, provides clearer feedback and a faster path to strategic competence.

[Tascha @TaschaLabs]

@MarcBal77 I’m sure they are at it nights and days right now

[Tascha @TaschaLabs]

Had problem in code. A tricky one. Gave it to Claude. Couldn’t solve after multiple tries. Gave it to o1 pro. Did it after 3 attempts.

May keep paying the $200 after all.

[Tascha @TaschaLabs]

The problem with “build things people want” is— if you are too good at it, you may just forget why you got started in the first place. And without that reason there’s no point building anything at all​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​.