Wolfspeed $WOLF isn’t a turnaround, it’s a slow-motion creditor takeover.
Apollo holds $1.25B in senior secured debt. March’s failed refinancing wasn’t a stumble, it was leverage.
CHIPS Act funds is delayed, likely until after Apollo takes control.
Equity is going to ZERO 🧵
Apollo’s 2030 loan is senior and secured, which means they don’t need maturity to exert control. If Wolfspeed breaches covenants or liquidity thresholds, Apollo can drive terms, push a prepack, or restructure the board now.
The CHIPS funding hasn’t been disbursed yet — and it likely won’t be until the capital stack is “cleaned up.” Apollo can match the funding after they control the asset, not before.
As for Shaolin and Balyasny — they hold unsecured 2026 converts trading at ~60 cents on the dollar. That implies the market is already pricing in a distressed outcome. Those funds are likely preparing to take equity or paper in a restructuring — not block it.
$WOLF may be a national asset.
But if this plays out as expected, CHIPS funding will arrive after equity is wiped and control shifts to Apollo.
This isn’t a bailout. It’s a buyout
Apollo ≠ neutral lender to $WOLF
Trump considered Apollo CEO Marc Rowan for Treasury.
Leon Black’s son was appointed to run the DFC.
Jay Clayton (ex-Apollo board) was Trump’s SEC chair.
They know how — and when — federal money moves.
@FranWalsh73 “They actually lost $73,000” implies there is a cost-free alternative to living in a house.
The real alternative to buying is renting.
More accurately, “the couple paid $73,000 to live in the house for 30 years.”
This should be compared to the cost/savings of renting.
@RaulJuncoV Got it. It’s worth noting context for the system design. For example, if a candidate applied it to a “shopping cart application,” interviewers will be concerned that paying customers will be blocked from repurchasing the same product quantity later.
@benz145 Self imposed, short deadlines have helped me focus on what matters most. I also keep a sticky note quote on my monitor, “Perfect is the enemy of good.”