Ted Cross

[Ted Cross @tedcross]

Hi folks - I am headed to Houston for NAPE later today. Give me a holler if you’d like to meet up!

[Ted Cross @tedcross]

@HedgeDirty Worth reading John McPhee’s “control of nature,” which covers the recurrent fires in the area and subsequent mudslides/ debris flows

[Ted Cross @tedcross]

@scbenergy Yes, eventually I will! There are enough reporting delays, so it won't be til later this year that we know how the wells from September, October, Nov, Dec will be doing long-term

[Ted Cross @tedcross]

Who drilled the best wells in Lower 48 last year? At this point, we have enough data across all basins to make a ranking!

In 2023, the private operator Kaiser Francis crushed it, with their 19 wells in the Permian making an average of 305k barrels in their first 12 months.

Other top Permian operators like Marathon, Coterra, ConocoPhillips, and Oxy also rise to the top, but surprisingly, two Uinta operators round out the top six: Ovintiv and XCL. We have been covering the incredible Uinta a lot over the past couple years, but it’s great to see the potential translate into this kind of performance.

Despite being the earliest unconventional basin, the Williston saw excellent well results last year: Grayson Mill, Chord, Marathon, and XOM all landed in the top 12. Counter-narrative, operators have extended high performance there despite a mostly-drilled play core.

In our age of consolidation, many of the largest operators make this list in multiple basins, including ConocoPhillips (Permian, EF), ExxonMobil (Williston, Permian), Devon (Permian, Williston), and Oxy (Permian, PRB). However, it’s still heartening to see top privates here like Kaiser Francis, XCL, Grayson Mill, and Mewbourne, even if they’re being acquired!

Encino Energy rounds out the list as the only Appalachian player, thanks to excellent Utica well results. They would rank a lot higher if BOEs were included! However, even using a 20:1 equivalency would result in a list filled with Haynesville and Appalachian operators, a reminder of just how energy-prolific shale gas wells can be.

Who will top the list in 2024? Coterra currently sits atop our ranking (using forecasted production to generate a 1-year cumulative), though not as many operators make our 15 wells in-basin per year cutoff. Across Lower 48, 2024 is looking even more productive than 2023 and has the potential to be the most productive year ever for unconventionals. Next year’s ranking will be interesting!

#eft #oott #energy #com

[Novi Labs @novilabs]

Missed Brandon Myers’ presentation at #SPEDenver? Don’t worry—you can still catch all the insights from the #RockiesResourceRumble presentation!

Discover how #machinelearning is shaping the future of Rockies resource development with key insights on #Interbasinrockquality, #operatorrankings and remaining inventory value.

Download the presentation now! 📊 https://t.co/IST37T6aeX

[Brandon Myers @BrandonMyers10]

Quick note on the Dallas Fed Energy Survey to kick off the year. 🧵

[Ted Cross @tedcross]

@rocks_boffin lol this is real triple premium content here

[Novi Labs @novilabs]

As the holiday season arrives, we want to thank our amazing community of energy pioneers, trailblazing customers, and the unstoppable Novi team: YOU are the driving force behind our mission to transform the energy analytics landscape. Your insights, passion, and collaboration have fueled incredible progress this year as we tackled challenges and innovated for a more sustainable, affordable, and resilient energy future.

We’re excited to carry this momentum forward into the new year and continue working together to drive progress and innovation in our industry.

Wishing you all a #MerryChristmas and a #HappyNewYear from all of us at Novi Labs!✨🌟

[Siddarth Subramani @sidsubramani]

I fully recommend The War Below. While those of us in industry were aware of the core issues detailed in the book, the story telling and anecdotes in this book carefully and expertly convey the message to the broader public.

[Novi Labs @novilabs]

Missed our most anticipated #SPEDSEATS webinar yet?👀

Dr. Dillon Niederhut breaks down #causalinference and how it’s revolutionizing #petroleumengineering decisions.

Full recording now available - this packed session is one you don’t want to miss! https://t.co/zv7nQ3Lvu7

[Novi Labs @novilabs]

What role does #AI and #machinelearning play in transforming the #oilandgas industry?🤔

Jon Ludwig, President and Co-Founder of Novi Labs, dives into real-world applications that are reducing costs, mitigating risks, and unlocking future opportunities.

Watch the full interview from @hartenergy’s Executive #OilConference now! https://t.co/YSEY2bNk1E

[Ted Cross @tedcross]

@ShaleTier7 I mean if I had a Tenet-style time machine you'd definitely get an invite bro

[Ted Cross @tedcross]

During the lockdown, for a “stay sane” splurge, my wife and I rented out a small movie theater to watch Tenet by ourselves. We had a blast!

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

HAVING SAID THAT: Tenet is the first movie I watched with a huge smile on my face for the entire runtime, since original Iron Man, and original Star Wars before that. Tenet is wholly underrated and everyone who disagrees is wrong. WRONG!

[Brandon Myers @BrandonMyers10]

For anyone wondering what this looks like from 30,000 ft view. In tier-2 through 4 rock we see anywhere from a ~15% to 40%+ decline in capital efficiency and per foot productivity. Unless rig+frac count go up 15% to 40% production will decline into the end of the decade.

[Ted Cross @tedcross]

Hm well I would question the premise, the technology is continuously evolving, shale reservoirs & unconventional technology are still relatively young in the grand scheme.
But let's say I assume no "gamechanger" technologies like some EOR that doubles EURs, and we continue with incremental improvements like completions optimizations and longer/more-complex laterals.
From a bottoms-up analysis, I think there is capacity maintain production for the next 15-20 years. Out to 2050 is harder. $70-120 is quite a range, if we are at the lower end, it could be a lower, longer plateau; if $120, could have production increases.
That is just a 'gut check'... we are still working on our L48-wide inventories and supply forecasts and I reserve the right to change my mind :)
Also, gas price matters quite a bit, too.....

[Ted Cross @tedcross]

Have operators exhausted inventory in the Bakken? The play still produces ~1.8 million boe per day, though many are wondering what its future holds. We have put together our most detailed inventory study yet -- let's dive in.

On the left, I am plotting the inventory "drawdown" going back to 2005, with ~35,000 total locations in our model (note we do not include Elm Coulee). We have broken out drilled and remaining locations into four equal Tiers based purely on rock quality (ignoring parent-child, unit size, etc.).

Operators have drilled ~80% of Tier 1 locations and 60% of Tier 2; less than 2,000 Tier 4 locations have been drilled to date. Beyond that, we estimate >50% of remaining Tier 1 locations are encumbered by surface issues, such as rugged badlands topography, lake cover, or sitting in National Forest lands. Much of the remaining Tier 1 beyond that is infill.

You can see the exhaustion of Tier 1 in the pattern of drilling over the years. During the 2010-2014 peak, when operators were delineating acreage and ensuring HBP, drilling was roughly equivalent between Tier 1, 2, and 3. From 2017-2020, drilling in Tier 1 dominated.

However, in the most recent peak (2023), operators drilled a higher portion of Tier 2 for the first time, increasing oil production ~20%. We have covered this production ramp-up previously, but to summarize: operators increased lateral length, widened spacing, and focused on the more productive Middle Bakken to improve economics.

While the Bakken is a meaningful play in its own right, we believe it offers an important analog to the Permian in questions of inventory exhaustion. By comparison, the Delaware and Midland have a much higher percentage of their Tier 1 and Tier 2 rock remaining, not to mention that "lower-Tier" Permian rock still offers globally-competitive half-cycle breakevens.

The Permian, because of its immense resource and complexity, also has significant more potential for exploration than the Bakken-Three Forks, with emerging plays like the Barnett showing strong early results. That must also be taken into account when applying the analog model of the Bakken (a 10-year plateau from 2014 through today) to speculate about the future of the Permian, the Vaca Muerta, or other large-scale, complex plays.

#eft #oott #com

[Ted Cross @tedcross]

@KramerKarma1 Thanks! I don't have the IP365 handy but Bakken-TF Tier 2 does ~40 bbl/ft EUR on average. Proper spacing is in the eye of the beholder, but average in the basin has drifted up quite a bit from ~440' in 2021 to ~660' in 2024. (that is w.r.t. the closest well, bakken or TF)

[Ted Cross @tedcross]

@FracSlap Put it in the louvre

[Novi Labs @novilabs]

Mark your calendars!🗓️

Novi’s first event of 2025 lands in #Houston on Jan 23, bringing together O&G leaders to tackle pressing questions around basin scoping, advanced M&A and inventory analysis, and strategic A&D workflows.

You’ll engage with senior executives in interactive discussions on U.S. energy development, covering a broad range of topics in asset development and M&A analysis, along with a sneak peek at Novi’s latest innovations in upstream intelligence, research, and data & analytics.

Seats are limited—don’t miss out! Apply now: https://t.co/wqZK9oMliw

[Ted Cross @tedcross]

@ShaleTier7 Gone but not forgotten 🙏

[Novi Labs @novilabs]

Only 2 days to go! Join Dillon Niederhut, Head of Data Science at Novi Labs, for an insightful SPE Webinar on December 11.

In his talk, “You Are Smarter Than Your Data: An Introduction to Causal Inference,” Dillon will introduce techniques to identify the true drivers of outcomes and make more informed decisions.🚀

Register now to save your seat! https://t.co/guBTGbI7Mv