Ted Ko

Started business since Netscape days and keep learning.

[Ted Ko @tedko_hk]

@neeraj_here15 @grok summarize the main points in this video

[Ted Ko @tedko_hk]

@Radha_AI @grok summarize the main points in this video

[Rose Celine Investments 🌹 @realroseceline]

I don’t usually post my buys or sells, but a few days ago I added meaningfully to $NOW at around ~16x earnings. Time will tell whether I’m a genius or an idiot.

Sales were up ~22%, basically in line, and they slightly raised 2025 guidance. Nothing extraordinary, but nothing broken either. A few Middle East deals slipped because of the conflict. That looks like timing, not something structural.

This is where it gets interesting. The business didn’t suddenly deteriorate, but the multiple did. Forward PE was around ~16, which is as low as it’s been in many years.

Everyone is focused on AI as a risk to software. Maybe that plays out. But for a platform like $NOW, there’s a real chance AI becomes an accelerant, not a disruptor. We’ll see what happens over the next few years.

🌹

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$NOW CEO Bill McDermott says the market is pricing in fear that LLMs could replace large parts of enterprise software.

But in an AI economy where companies need to operationalize agentic AI safely, ServiceNow looks more like the control layer for governance, context, routing and oversight.

The market is still struggling to separate software that gets disrupted by AI from software that becomes more valuable because AI needs exactly that control layer.

I think ServiceNow sits much closer to the second bucket.

[Ted Ko @tedko_hk]

@iMapBuilder Can the map work be embed to WordPress?

[0xSun @0xSunNFT]

BTC12万看空是顶级交易员，10万看空人人尊称一声高手，8万看空属于牛逼的趋势交易者，6万开始长篇大论币圈再无牛市就大可不必

[WquGuru @wquguru]

https://t.co/pPpyOUCCcX

[hoeem @hooeem]

$15 trillion.

that’s over 10x the market cap of bitcoin and it’s how much ai agents will spend by 2028

the 10x opportunity is knowing that there’s only one place that they spend it

the 10x question becomes: where do billions of machines go when they need to move money? well, please let me tell you

at the moment, nobody cares

by 2028, everyone will care

the money will be made in the window between “nobody cares” to “everyone cares”

𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐬

• ai agents can’t open bank accounts they’re not legal persons
• no ssn. no kyc. no signature. banks will never serve them.
• blockchain is the only financial system that doesn’t require permission or identity
• all you need is a private key no gatekeeper, no approval, no human co-signatory
• this isn’t a choice. it’s elimination. there is nowhere else for agents to go.

𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 (𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐭 𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐰)

• coinbase launched “agentic wallets” for autonomous ai agents
• x402 protocol revived the http 402 “payment required” code for machine-to-machine micropayments
• visa built a “trusted agent protocol” for cryptographic verification of ai agent transactions
• lightning labs dropped agent-native tools for lightning network payments on the same day
• smart contracts = the only “contracts” a machine can execute (no lawyers, no courts, just code)

𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐡𝐮𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐬

• salesforce ceo predicted 1 billion ai agents by end of fiscal 2026 looks conservative now
• ibm: “non-human identities will outnumber human users in organisations significantly”
• gartner: 40% of enterprise apps will embed ai agents by end of 2026 (up from 5% in 2025)
• 50% of enterprises using genai will deploy autonomous agents by 2027 (deloitte)
• every company deploys hundreds sometimes thousands of agents. billions globally. fast.
• agents spawn sub-agents. sub-agents spawn more. growth is exponential, not linear.

𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲

• gartner: ai agents will command $15 trillion in b2b purchases by 2028
• by 2030, 20% of all monetary transactions will be programmable (machine-initiated, machine-settled)
• ai automation projected to inject $2.84 trillion into us gdp by 2030
• agentic ai market obliterates $47-52 billion by 2030 (46% annual growth)
• banks report 77% roi on agent deployments
• smart factories save ~$300m/year with agentic systems
• agents don’t sleep. don’t take weekends. execute thousands of transactions per hour. 24/7/365.

𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭

• ai agents already finding smart contract exploits autonomously $4.6m in vulnerabilities found (anthropic research)
• exploit capability doubling every 1.3 months. cost to scan one contract: $1.22.
• “death by ai” legal claims expected to exceed 2,000 by end of 2026 (gartner)
• agent-to-agent commerce creates closed loops humans can’t see into
• 75% of organisations have misconfigured agent policies rogue deployments are a bigger threat than outside hackers
• 40% of large enterprises will need “guardian agents” to police other agents by 2028
• financial agent alignment is unsolved over-leverage, manipulation, portfolio destruction in seconds

𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐧𝐨𝐛𝐨𝐝𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐬𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠

• when most on-chain transactions are machine-to-machine, what happens to chain value?
• winning chains won’t have the best marketing they’ll have lowest latency, cheapest fees, most composable contracts
• crypto user base isn’t going from 500m humans to 1b humans
• it’s going from 500m humans to 500m humans + billions of machines
• machines transact at volumes humans physically cannot match

𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐨𝐭𝐭𝐨𝐦 𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞

• blockchain wasn’t built for ai agents it was built by cypherpunks who didn’t trust banks
• by accident of architecture, it became the only financial infrastructure for non-human economic actors
• every agent that needs to transact will use blockchain. not most. all. no alternative exists.

wow

[Phyrex @PhyrexNi]

2026年第六周 Bitcoin 链上数据变化 — — 牛熊转折，也许是开始建仓的机会。

这一周对机密货币市场最大的惊吓就是在没有明显利空的时候 $BTC 的价格触碰到了 60,000 美元，这个价格已经低于上一个周期的顶部，这对于很多小伙伴来说都意味着一件事情，熊市来了。

在2025年的时候多次讨论过，当时的行情是反弹还是反转，观点是即便 Bitcoin 的价格新高，但市场的风险没有解除，市场并没有满足反转的条件，对于当时的 BTC 来说起码并不算是熊市，当时的 BTC 就像是传统市场的 AI ，虽然大家都觉得有泡沫，但还没有被戳破。
Bitcoin 的净未实现盈亏（NUPL）

从历史的 Bitcoin 恐慌数据（NUPL）数据来看，之前一直都是在黄色区域，这个区间往往代表的是市场还有较强的信心，这个时候往往对应的乐观的市场，但从最近一周的数据能看到，已经从黄色进入到了橙色阶段，而橙色代表的就是恐慌。

也就是从市场情绪来看，如果继续下跌，很有可能就会进入到红色，而红色往往代表的就是投降，也就是真正的情绪崩溃带来的大幅恐慌抛售，所以目前的阶段可以说就是牛熊的转换阶段，如果市场的信心继续不足，熊市就会直接开启。

但往往这种时间是不错的建仓开始时间，并不是说现在就要 ALL IN ，而是趁着下跌的时候可以有计划的投资，比如每跌 5,000 美元买入仓位的 5% 等等，目的并不是为了买到最低价，而是当反弹或反转出现的时候，手中能有筹码。
标普500波动率指数（恐慌指数）

这个阶段，我经历过很多次，最新的一次就是2025年4月，当时因为关税的问题，Bitcoin 的价格也是一路下跌，当时很多小伙伴都说牛市结束了，深熊要来了，Bitcoin 的价格要测试四万美元了，但结果不到一个半月以后就是历史新高，而当时还只是黄色，我当时抄底是因为 VIX 大幅下跌。

从历史数据来看，当 $BTC 的 NUPL（LTH）进入红色以及 VIX 突破到 30 以上基本都是很好的抄底点，这也让我养成了抄底往往不是看价格，而是看更多历史上很少出错的指数配合，当然毕竟还是俗人，有时候还是觉得价格挺低的就买进去了，不过我最近买的都是为了2028年做准备，也算是建仓的一部分。
最近一年所有交易所中的存量 Bitcoin 以及转入到交易所的数量

从交易所存量的周数据来看，最近一周存量的 $BTC 是在降低的，但总量减少的很缓慢，一周降低了大概 12,000 枚 Bitcoin 左右，但我从数据中观察到，更多的抛售行为还是在交易所中，也就是大量的卖出是在交易所，所以对于 BTC 的存量没有显示，而只有提现到链上的时候才会有变化，所以虽然看上去是一直在提现（买），但价格却始终在下跌。

另外转移到交易所的 Bitcoin 数量来看，最近一周虽然情绪并不好，但转移的抛售量确实是在下降的，这就说明投资者面对高价的时候，已经不再是恐慌的抛售，反而不愿意出现割肉太深的情况。这也是为什么我说可以尝试建仓的原因之一。
最近一年交易所存量 Bitcoin 头寸

不过虽然抛售在降低，但买入的趋势并没有显现，这也是我为什么我会说只是建仓，而不是 ALL IN 的时机，明显能看最近一年半出现过五次大规模吸筹的情况，中间三次规模都很大，而第一次和第二次相隔非常近，第四次和第五次虽然间隔也很短，但明显能看到购买的趋势在逐渐的减弱，这也是 BTC 流动性降低的体现。

而到目前的这个阶段，从卖出力量能看到，已经不但是下坡路，而且几乎都到山脚了，接下来就要看市场的情绪和流动性是否支撑 $BTC 的购买力上升，如果能出现像中间三次这么大规模的买入，那就是转牛了。

但这三次的原因分别是：

1+2. 大选和川普的上台，这就不用多说了。

3. 中美贸易战的结束

4+5. 美联储的宽松预期和SEC的豁免创新

其实从趋势上来看，10月应该是非常稳的一个月，如果不是 10月11日 导致的联合清算，很有可能第五次不会和第四次分开，第四次的吸筹借助 10月 的降息很有可能再打出一个新高，但可惜了，从10月以后就能明显看到，11月和12月并没有出现太大的幺蛾子，市场努力的想要提升购买力。但就是流动性的差距太大了，第五次吸筹的规模是这五次中最弱的，至此买入就越来越无力。

所以回到现在来看，能否出现第六次，要么就是史诗级的利好刺激，要么美联储有大规模的宽松，如果做不到的话，我还是相信 Bitcoin 能缓慢的反弹，但能反弹到哪一步就很难说了。尤其是6月前，最大的博弈还是川普的关税政策以及川普和美联储的货币战争。

@bitget VIP，费率更低，福利更狠

[Muhammad Ayan @socialwithaayan]

BREAKING: AI can now build you a complete website in 2 hours (for free).

Here are 9 insane Perplexity + Replit prompts that create $5,000 websites in 2 hours (save for later):

[lol @fuckNovogratz]

Asked grok about a life of average investor in a scenario where $glxy and $btc goes to zero:

-seems like my future

[JackYi @Jackyi_ld]

身在行业中为什么总是忍不住看多，和过去创业经历有关，当年确实找不到工作开始创业，挣到第一桶金后，也不敢大消费而去投资科技项目，应该成绩还不错。15年进入币圈挖BTC，买ETH，投资项目，赶上了那个黄金年代，这是不断一路做多的收获。但后来的熊市投资大亏损➕熬不住熊市提前清仓BTC，最后错过了312后的大牛市，这是属于看空的后果。我们经历了2轮熊市后的牛市，所以这次在逃顶后，比较自信抄底过早，在控制风险情况下继续等待。

[Yishi @ohyishi]

2026 年大概率会是异常动荡、异常混乱的一年。回看我过去所有惨痛的亏损，真正学到的一条只有一句话：不要参与自己看不懂的游戏。

你相信的趋势未必成立，你觉得被低估的资产未必真的低估，你以为的放水也未必是真放水。当市场定价开始失序，几乎所有资产都有可能被错杀。

是时候静下心来问自己了，这场游戏你的优势是什么，为什么是你赢。如果做不到赢，有没有办法让自己不要输？

[凯林 @kaylyn_0x]

昨晚对易理华来说，估计又是难熬的一夜。他旗下的 Trend Research 为了卸杠杆，又往币安充了 3.5 万枚 ETH，价值 $78.7M

我算了下 2 月至今，华子往币安一共充了 16 万枚 ETH。谁能想到这个曾经 ETH 市场最大的死多头，竟被市场推向了“断头台”

· $3100 满怀希望入场
· $2200 遍体鳞伤离场

一笔价值 1.28 亿美元的天价学费

肯定够他铭记一生了，因为杠杆这玩意哪怕是机构也不是能轻松驾驭的。此外，我非常认同 @zhusu 之前的发言：

“卖在顶部”往往比下跌途中卖出更具风险，因为成功逃顶带来的亢奋情绪，容易引发过早回补仓位以及过度自信。

现在华子的账户还有 49.8 万枚 ETH，我不确定市场针对他的狩猎是否仍在进行中。但回顾去年 BTC 价格 8w 时，ETH 的价格才1400，而现在 BTC 在 8w 以下，ETH 仍在 2200 以上，是价值发现还是泡沫未消？

@Jackyi_ld 哥，请问你慌不慌？🤣

[Ted Ko @tedko_hk]

@MarioNawfal @grok is JetBriana similar to Google Antigravity? What's the difference and advantage

[Ted Ko @tedko_hk]

@hayesdev_ @grok summarise the tools reviewed in this video

[IvanaSPEAR @IvanaSpear]

The market finally figured out that not all AI stocks are the same. But they are still missing the bigger opportunity.

From January through September, every AI stock moved together: $NVDA $AMD $GOOGL $ORCL all trading in lockstep.

The market treated AI as one giant bet.

But by October, everything changed.

Three distinct groups emerged:

1️⃣ The OpenAI Complex: Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, Oracle, CoreWeave

Open AI’s promise to invest $1.3 trillion in infrastructure, with no profit to back it up, is raising many questions, driving the whole complex down. 

◾ Oracle needs to issue $90B of debt over the next 3 years to fund capex/negative FCF

◾ Significant customer concentration risk: OpenAI represents 66% of Oracle backlog

◾ Credit market doesn't love this profile - both Oracle and Coreweve CDS spreads are widening

2️⃣ The Google Complex: Google & Broadcom

◾Google's TPUs are gaining serious traction

◾Broadcom is manufacturing these TPUs specifically for Google

◾This is becoming a credible alternative to NVIDIA-centric infrastructure, especially in recommender systems

…but remember, there are risks here too, as TPUs have stronger performance than Nvidia only in one application …will be hard to gain general-purpose traction.

3️⃣ The Value Chain: $CRDO, $COHR, $ALAB, $LITE, $CIEN, $ANET, $MRVL

◾ Credo's electrical cable demand is soaring - the company reported 272% growth YOY earlier this week

◾ Astera Labs' scale-up components are driving >100% YoY growth in the latest reported quarter

◾ Marvell, just yesterday, pointed to solid visibility into ‘26/27 expecting +25%/+40% YoY growth

◾ Coherent & Lumentum - optics suppliers are just getting traction in the next wave of infrastructure buildout.

These companies are under-promising and consistently beating numbers.

While investors and media are debating which complex will take over, they are placing binary bets on platform winners.

But they don’t realize that investing in the value chain doesn't require that bet as infrastructure companies supply everyone:

If Google's TPUs gain traction, they need Lumentum optics.

If AWS gains traction, it needs Astera Labs components.

If Nvidia continues to win, they need Credo cables.

So the difference in risk profile is significant.

Platforms carry individual technology risks: one wrong product cycle, one market-share loss, and valuations compress fast.

Value chain companies have diversified exposure across all platforms with lower company-specific risk and superior risk-adjusted returns.

The debate will intensify as more data comes in.

Fund managers will make more predictions about who will win the platform war.

The OpenAI and Google complexes will see more volatility as market sentiment shifts.

Meanwhile, the infrastructure layer keeps winning.

They supply everyone, so it doesn't matter which AI model or chip architecture dominates next quarter.

[CryptosRus @CryptosR_Us]

🔥 TOM LEE CALLS FOR $62,000 $ETH

"I think Ethereum's going to become the future of finance, the payment rails of the future and if it gets to .25 relative to Bitcoin that's $62,000. Ethereum at $3,000 is grossly undervalued."

[HN @PassionAndLuck]

To all $SBET holders:
I know many of you feel frustration or anxiety over the recent price action. But let me explain why there’s no need to worry.

The true essence of a treasury company is leverage through debt financing.