Ted Theodore, CFA

NYC based global multi-asset investment strategist. #GoBlue

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

For the US, stocks have been rising for at least 150 years. So obviously, that means lots of “All Time Highs.” Now in my 60th year in the business, I have witnessed 1,010 S&P 500 ATHs. That’s more than one, “on average,” every month. Over time, even with big cycles, stocks go up.

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

Air fares are up about 4% compared to a year ago. On the other hand, passenger screenings at US airports started to fade about six months ago and are now down more than 2% compared with a year ago.

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

@MarketWatch That relationship has held now for about a year. It means good news is bad news and bad news (like a weak economy lowering rates) is good news. So, "Don't fight the Fed' works. That was the case from the mid60s through 2000.

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

@Will_McGrew @chrislhayes @steveschale It would certainly raise profits. The record of corporations nowadays not passing along "savings" is pretty strong.
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[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

@charliebilello An ATH on SPX is good. However, the AI group, which has a very heavy weight in the SPX cap-weighted index, is not at an ATH and is not confirming the breadth of the move. Most are rising from below their 50 SMA and encountering some resistance there.

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

@MikeZaccardi With TSA screenings running 2% below last year, what is shown here is more an inflation story. Airlines admit to very pricey premium seats holding up well. Another "K" phenomenon.

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

@Brad_Setser Via the Economist Big Mac Index, the currencies of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China are all undervalued to the dollar. That's not market forces, that is policy.

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

@ChrisShepherd16 @qcapital2020 Just that managements have never forecasted a downturn, so a FORWARD PE compared to EXPECTED growth (PEG) tells you much more about current conditions and confidence than the future. Expectations top out at the end of the up cycle, whenever that may be.

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

@ChrisShepherd16 @qcapital2020 Buy-side analysts are "guided" by companies. Management consistently guides conservative numbers so that there are usually pleasant "beats" at earnings season. It's a game, and those are the rules; ignore at your own peril.

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

For the last two years, the ETF #VXF, which holds all stocks NOT in the S&P 500, has very roughly held its own vs #SPY after half a decade of lagging. From a technical perspective, a truly broadening market would now see VXF move definitively to outperform SPY. Is the time ripe?

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

@GlobalMktObserv ETF growth has indeed been phenomenal. Combining NYSE common stocks and NASDAQ listings there are about 6500 traded stocks. Mixing the same ingredients can make many different dishes.

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

@byHeatherLong Hospitality: there's a distinct softening in TSA airport screenings

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

@MikeZaccardi @AugurInfinity TSA screenings flat, so staycations?

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

@morezjohnsonJr @umichbball Today's Dave DeBusschere

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

@robin_j_brooks @mtkonczal FOMC is not Federal Open Market Chairman

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

@jedimarkus77 "Broadening" has been upside down: microcaps, then R2, R1, SML and lastly Mid

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

@jedimarkus77 Not really, about 6% of MDY

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

@jedimarkus77 Microcaps (and Memes) outperforming higher earnings quality mid caps

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

@jedimarkus77 Cumulative daily breadth of the S&P 1500 Composite also new ATH, lead mostly by small cap breadth. $SPX still not there.

[Ted Theodore, CFA @tedtheodore]

Table of cap groups % ABOVE 200 SMA. A “broadening” market works down from mid-caps, eventually to microcaps. We’ve had the opposite. We’ve had performance largely unrelated to fundamental earnings growth. We’ve had speculation. That’s usually ok in bull markets. @MichaelKantro